Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 25.94 | HOLD | 25.62 | 21.31 | 26.87 (+4.9%) | 29.04 (+13.3%) | 36.96 (+44.3%) | We bought Lenovo at this morning's open and we are keeping it. The shares are up 1.2% on our cost and remain above every trend line we track, the business is the second-highest quality name in this portfolio, and our own estimate of what it is worth still sits comfortably above the price. The short-term signal did weaken sharply during the day - the model went from its strongest buy rating to a neutral watch in a single session - but weakening enthusiasm is not the same as a reason to sell: there is no warning flag on the position, the stop is nowhere near being hit, and the twelve-week view still points 42% higher. We hold, with a clearly defined exit level, and revisit before the company reports results next week. | OPERATIONAL: filled @ 25.62 at the 08-06 open (txn hktech-20260806-0001), 2.9% BELOW the 26.39 close-reference - the gap ran in the book's favour. Position 5.19% of book (MV 103,760); risk-to-stop 17,240 = 0.86% of book. Conviction STRONG BUY 79 -> WATCH 53 (-26) and family BreakoutUp_20D -> FailedBreakdown_Up_20D in the same session as the fill; 74.69 -> 0. NO SELL ROUTE IS OPEN: no Exit_Warning code; NOT PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 0.21 vs 3.0 required, T12 progress 2.8% vs 90%) so ADR-0012 cannot fire and its conviction-collapse tick is unreachable; no stop break (25.94 vs 21.31, 18% headroom) and T12 +42.5% so L2 fails both legs; WATCH is not SELL-REDUCE. ADR-0020: Peak Stop 21.31 = live stop, 0% erosion. Not armed -> no mandatory trail-raise; chandelier recomputes to 21.29 so 21.31 stands. Interim ALERT level 25.18 (today's fixed_then_trail level for a hypothetical NEW entry, NOT this position's risk line - a close below it triggers nothing by itself). Estimates from close 25.94 at f=0.30 (L5 mandatory, calib_1w -0.45, 9 graded buys < 10). T4 29.04 now sits INSIDE Est_High 29.33 - yesterday's 26% overshoot was a breakout-family artifact and resolved on the family change. T12 36.96 sits INSIDE DCF_per_share 43.47 - no exceeds-DCF annotation, rare in a book where names are GROWTH_PRICED_IN. Quality_Pass True, Quality_Rank 2/21. HT-6 re-checked and CLEAR. News none found: Yahoo returned HTTP 503 on two fetches and its search snippet served a stale 25.24 quote matching no session in this book - L4, the scan CSV is authoritative. EVENT: Q1 FY27 results 2026-08-13, 5 sessions out, single-sourced (prior-year Q1 landed 13 Aug 2025), ABSENT from hk_horizon.json for the third session; the hold-through-earnings call belongs to the 08-12 run. DISPOSE TRIGGERS: decisive close below 21.31; OR a second consecutive NO TRADE / cv<40 print WITH Target_12Week rolling under the close (L2); OR any Exit_Warning code; OR a SELL-REDUCE label. ADD TRIGGER: fresh BUY/STRONG BUY at cv>=65 with the 12wk view intact and 08-13 past or sized for. |
| 2318 | Ping An Insurance (Group) - mislabelled 'Aac Technologies Holdings' in portfolio file | 57.30 | WATCH | 56.54 | 55.10 | n/a | 57.86 (+2.3%) | 55.84 (-1.2%) | This was the only name in the portfolio flashing a buy today, and we are not taking it - for two separate reasons, either of which is sufficient. First, the trade does not pay for its own risk: the model's four-week target sits barely 1% above today's price while the protective stop sits 2.5% below it, and its own twelve-week projection is actually LOWER than the current price. We would be risking more than we stand to gain on a share the model expects to be cheaper in three months. Second, and more seriously, the holding is misidentified in our own records: this ticker is Ping An Insurance, a mainland Chinese life insurer, not the technology component maker its name in our file claims. It does not belong in a Hong Kong technology mandate and we would not have bought it knowingly. We are flagging the record for correction. | OPERATIONAL: cv65 lands EXACTLY on the floor and is the L1-FAVOURED PullbackBuy_VWAP family, so it got a full look and still fails HT-4 on three legs screened BEFORE the floor: (i) Target_12Week 55.84 vs close 57.30 = -2.5%, negative forward view; (ii) R:R 0.92 - entry 56.54, stop 55.10 (risk 1.44) vs T4 57.86 (reward 1.32) - the HT-3 config artifact reproducing to the second decimal (HK pullback exits place the stop 1.25 ATR below entry against a target only 1.145 ATR above; structurally negative-EV, not a per-name judgement, and gated behind the champion/challenger shadow test); (iii) close 57.30 below EMA200 58.64, Momentum pillar 24/30, consensus Mixed. ED -0.66 so it is NOT extended - the reject is structural, not a no-chase reject. IDENTITY DEFECT (Systemic #1): 2318.HK resolves to Ping An Insurance (Group) Co of China; AAC Technologies is 2018.HK. Corroborated three ways - the fairvalue row prints NA_CCY + IsFinancial with a nonsensical DCF_per_share 406.05 against a 57.30 close (a CNY-reporting insurer); the ~57 price band fits Ping An not AAC; and an insurer is outside an 'AI - HK Tech' mandate. val_adj 0 and quality gate OFF because NA_CCY passes by construction - note the printed MoS +0.2918 is NOT usable and was not used. Ping An reports 1H interims in late August on the usual calendar (unconfirmed, outside the 10-day horizon window). RE-ARM: none - this row should not re-arm at all until the portfolio file's ticker/name is corrected and fairvalue re-run. · news |
| — | hktech | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No buys, no sells. Yesterday's Lenovo order filled cleanly at this morning's open - and at a better price than we asked for - which ends sixteen straight sessions of holding nothing but cash. That position we keep. Beyond it, only one of the twenty-one shares we follow signalled a buy today, and it failed on both arithmetic and identity: the reward did not cover the risk, and the ticker turns out to be a mainland insurer mislabelled in our records as a technology company. Ten of the remaining names are still in outright decline. So the book stays roughly 95% in cash and waits. | OPERATIONAL: 0 ACQUIRE / 0 DISPOSE / 1 HOLD. Buy pool = 1 row (2318 BUY cv65) rejected on HT-4 (negative T12, R:R 0.92, below EMA200) plus the 2318.HK identity defect. Sell pool EMPTY - the one holding (0992, 1 session old, +1.25%) has no Exit_Warning, is not PROFIT_ARMED, has not broken its 21.31 stop and carries a +42.5% 12wk view; all three sell-origination classes closed. ANTICIPATE slot empty - zero BUY-ANTICIPATE prints in the last 3 snapshots. No open queued orders remain. Book value HK (0992 MV 103,760 = 5.19% + cash 1,897,520 = 94.81%) vs 2,000,000 seed = +0.06% since inception. Scorecard graded 9, calib_1w -0.45, f=0.30 mandatory (L5); all cells below the n>=5 floor so scorecard_bias 0 on every candidate (HT-2). Overlay 32d stale and inert. Step 8a not run (batch mode). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
9 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.450 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.