Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 29.00 | ADD — QUEUED @28.75 | 28.75 | 22.73 | 31.96 (+11.2%) | 39.44 (+37.2%) | 41.32 (+43.7%) | Lenovo is the book's one high-conviction name and it just made a fresh 52-week high at HKon heavy volume, its second straight session printing a BUY - ADD on a 52-week breakout with the best buy rank in the book. The AI-server business is the engine — infrastructure revenue growing ~37%, a Saudi sovereign-AI build and the FIFA 2026 technology partnership all reinforce the same story — while quality screens near the top of the book (F-Score 7, ROE 28%, ROIC 24%) and the 12-week objective still sits inside the DCF anchor of HK. Valuation is a mild headwind rather than a support: the EPV anchor puts fair value below the market, so the position is added to in part, not re-sized in full. Because the close is 0.39 ATR past the model entry with RSI 69 and price 20% above VWAP, this is queued as a pullback limit rather than bought at market. Operational: GTC buy-limit at HK = live Entry_Price 28.30 + 0.25 x ATR 1.8086, the top of the mandated provenance band and still 0.86% below the 29.00 close; a fill there sits exactly at the no-chase boundary (0.25 ATR past entry) versus 0.39 at market. Band-top placement deliberately answers the no_chase_queue counterfactual (n=5, median wh_1w +5.07% COST) without loosening the no-chase bar - the 08-07 limit at 27.06 missed by HKand cost HKThe prior 27.06 order is withdrawn and repriced, never republished (Step 7 provenance). Order_Type prints 'Buy Stop @ HK' on a below-market entry - read as a LIMIT, do not execute at market (Systemic #1, second session unfixed). Expiry is 2026-08-12 by design: Lenovo reports Q1 FY27 on 2026-08-13 (horizon: direct scope, high confidence, two-sided +/-6.0%, stance queue-below), so the order dies the session before earnings - no gap-chase (L6). Gap guard: revalidate if the 08-11 open gaps >~1.5% against the 29.00 reference. Auto-withdraw if conviction falls below 65. If filled: at blended HK, cash. Held 4,000-sh leg is a HOLD: no Exit_Warning, NOT PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 1.87 < 3.0, T12_Progress 70.18 < 90), 21.6% of stop headroom, chandelier stop raised 21.52 -> 22.73 (new peak stop), ADR-0020 erosion 0%; catalyst-aware hold through 08-13 earnings - do not pre-trim. Caveats stated: Target_4w 39.44 is 17.1% above Est_High 33.68 (L1 BreakoutUp_52W overshoot, identical percentage two sessions running) so R:R is 1.78 on the printed target and 0.82 on the honest one; f=0.30 mandatory (L5, calib_1w -0.45); scorecard_bias 0 because BreakoutUp_52W has no graded history in this book (HT-2); marked to today's 29.00 close the MoS is ~-0.63 (val_adj -3, adj conviction 66) versus the printed -2 on a 24.74 price basis - above the floor either way. · news |
| 9618 | JD-SW | 130.40 | WATCH | 123.55 | 119.49 | 124.67 (+0.9%) | 127.27 (+3.0%) | 159.69 (+29.3%) | JD printed the book's most-favoured entry pattern today - a pullback-to-VWAP buy in a confirmed uptrend, above its 200-day average and ranked second in the book - and it is still being passed on, for reasons that have nothing to do with liking the business. The trade's own four-week objective (HK) sits below the current price (HK), so the setup offers no forward reward on its own numbers, and the stop placement leaves roughly one unit of reward for every unit of risk. Q2 results land on 2026-08-13 into consensus for a 62% earnings decline with twelve downward analyst revisions and none upward, on subsidy-war margin pressure, after the shares have already run 22% in a month; that is the wrong week to establish a position. Operational: adjusted conviction 63 (val_adj -0, bias 0) is 2 points under the 65 floor. HT-4 forward-view screen FAILS outright - Target_Price 127.27 < Close 130.40 - and HT-4 requires both the 4wk and 12wk views positive (T12 159.69 is +22.5%). HT-3 reproduces exactly: risk 4.06 (123.55 - 119.49) vs reward 3.72 (127.27 - 123.55) = R:R 0.92, the identical hktech pullback-exit config artifact measured at 0.91-0.92 across every pullback row; structurally negative-EV until the champion/challenger shadow test clears a fix - never hand-edit tuned params. L6 blocks queueing into the 08-13 print (horizon: high confidence, two-sided +/-7.0%). Re-arm trigger: a Target_Price that clears the close AND conviction >= 65 AND the earnings print behind it - i.e. earliest 2026-08-14, on a pullback toward the model entry rather than a gap-chase. Sixth consecutive session this name has shown a positive 12-week view the book could not act on. Also logged as Systemic #7: the engine emitted a BUY whose own 4wk target is below the close - no clamp exists. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | hktech book summary | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | One acquisition, queued, and no disposals. The book adds 2,000 Lenovo shares only on a pullback to HK - a limit that leaves the order unfilled if the stock keeps running - and otherwise holds its existing through next week's results. Nothing else in the 21-name universe is buyable: every other row is either an outright AVOID with a 12-week view 26-43% below the current price, a watch-only label, or a flat no-trade on conflicting indicators. Cash stays at roughly 91-94% of the book either way. Operational: DISPOSE = NO ACTION; all three sell-origination classes closed on the only holding (no Exit_Warning, not PROFIT_ARMED, no stop break, 12wk +42.5%, ADR-0020 erosion 0% with the peak stop rising 21.52 -> 22.73). Book value HKvs the 2,000,000 seed = +0.68% since inception, 5.76%, HKdeclared. Buys need HKif filled, sells free HK - from cash. Valuation CSV FetchedAt 2026-08-03 is 7 days old, at the freshness boundary; the next run trips >7d and should regenerate. f=0.30 mandatory (L5, calib_1w -0.45, 9 graded buys < 10). Step 8a not run (batch mode). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
9 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.450 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.