Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 29.78 | HOLD | 29.78 | 29.40 | 30.92 (+3.8%) | 33.59 (+12.8%) | 42.44 (+42.5%) | Hold Lenovo in full. After four sessions of profit-taking the shares have stabilised and the signal has turned back up for the first time since the record quarter - the trend reading is unchanged and strongly positive, momentum improved, and the model's twelve-week view of 42.44 is 42% above today's 29.78 close while the shares still trade 35% below their 45.65 discounted-cash-flow anchor. Selling volume dried up 41%, no dilution or guidance headline has appeared, and the downside is already capped by a stop that sits 6.9% above cost. Nothing to do but hold and let the stop work. || OPERATIONAL: HOLD cv53 (first non-NO-TRADE label in 4 sessions; consensus Conflicted -> Consolidation_Bullish, regime Ranging -> Trending, Momentum, Trend 77 flat). TRAIL HELD AT 29.40 - NOT lowered to the row's printed 29.21 (a trail is never lowered) and NOT raised, because the chandelier 36.16 - 3.0x ATR 1.9047 = 30.45 computes ABOVE the 29.78 close after ATR contracted 2.2536 -> 1.9047 (Systemic #1, live defect). peak_stop 29.40, 0% ADR-0020 erosion, 6.92% above the 27.498 cost, protecting HKHeadroom 1.28%; the LOW 29.28 PENETRATED the trail intraday and closed back above - not a decisive close, so not an exit. ADR-0012 NOT ARMED: Exit_Warning blank, Gain_ATR 1.2 < 3.0, T12_Progress_Pct 70.17 FROZEN for an 8th snapshot (hand-computed 15.3%, Systemic #2); tick (d) streak BROKE at 3 and reset; tick (b) inverted - conviction rose. L2 does NOT apply (close above stop AND 12wk +42.5%, both legs fail). G1/G3 would block any valuation trim anyway. f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w +0.129, degenerate). News read is search-index only - the Yahoo 0992.HK news page returned HTTP 503, so 'no dilution headline' is high-confidence but not page-verified (HT-6 condition absent). BREACH: decisive close below 29.40 = trail exit. RE-ARM to ADD only on a base-build in 29.40-31.50 with RSI < 65 AND a bullish actionable label; never at today's 29.78 reference. · news |
| 1810 | XIAOMI CORP-W | 29.02 | WATCH | 29.02 | 28.00 | 29.75 (+2.5%) | 31.44 (+8.3%) | 28.27 (-2.6%) | Not bought, and this was the closest call in weeks. Xiaomi generated the strongest buy signal in the book and is the first name in a month to pass both the entry bar and the accounting-quality screen, with a sound risk-reward of 2.4 to 1 - but the shares are up 5.8% in two sessions and roughly 20% since June purely on the reaction to an 18 August quarter in which revenue fell 6.1% and adjusted profit fell 43% under record memory costs. Buying the high of a two-day run on deteriorating fundamentals, with the model's own twelve-week view 2.6% BELOW today's price and the shares 83% above their discounted-cash-flow anchor, is a chase rather than an entry. Waiting for the pullback. || OPERATIONAL: cv78 Buy_Rank 1 + val_adj -1 (MoS -0.2039) + bias 0 = adj cv 77, 12 pts CLEAR of the floor; Quality_Pass TRUE F-Score 6; size_mod 1.0x. Stop 28.00 = 0.84 ATR / -3.52%; R:R 2.37. Above EMA20 27.19, EMA50 27.24, EMA100 28.92 (+0.35%); below EMA200 33.11 (-12.4%). RSI 60.58, Trend 61 / Momentum 66 both Bullish - NOT the HT-4 falling-knife archetype. KILLED BY THREE ACTIVE LEARNINGS: (1) L6 post-earnings gap-chase, decisive; (2) HT-4 forward-view leg fails - T4 31.44 +8.34% OK but T12 28.27 = -2.58% BELOW close; (3) L1 + stability - FailedBreakdown_Up_20D is the discounted-chase family (own cell n=2, hit_1w 0.50, STOP-FIRST 0.50), and the label is a SINGLE unconfirmed print that flipped from AVOID cv72 FailedBreakout_Down_20D across the MISSING 08-20 snapshot. Close 29.02 printed in the top 8% of the 28.00-29.10 range, VWAP +2.74%, and Est_High 29.60 puts it at 86% of the model's own upper band. Counterfactual size: 28.39% x HKx 20% = HK -> (lot 200) = HK5.45% of book, HK = 0.19% at risk. RE-ARM: pullback into 27.20-28. above EMA100 28.92, a SECOND consecutive bullish actionable print, and T12 recovering >= Close - at that day's live Entry_Price, never at 29.02. See Systemic #3: HT-4's absolute T12 leg passes only names in this universe and is the top candidate for the next learnings review. · news |
| 1211 | BYD | 93.15 | WATCH | 93.15 | 92.00 | 94.62 (+1.6%) | 98.06 (+5.3%) | 93.11 (-0.0%) | Not bought. BYD produced the book's second buy signal today but fails the accounting-quality screen outright, and the case behind it is thin: the model's own twelve-week view is fractionally BELOW today's price, the shares screen expensive on earnings multiples with commentary calling them stretched after the new Blade Battery launch, and the proposed stop sits just 1.2% away - inside a single average day's trading range, so a routine session would take it out. Interim results land on 31 August, four sessions after any entry, which a stop that tight cannot underwrite. || OPERATIONAL: QUALITY GATE HARD BLOCK on a new entry - Quality_Pass FALSE, F-Score 4, no DCF anchor computed. Sub-floor independently: cv69 + val_adj -7 (MoS -1.3481) + bias 0 = adj cv 62, 3 pts below the 65 floor. HT-4 fails two legs: T4 98.06 = +5.27% OK, T12 93.11 = -0.04% (four cents below close), and the stop 92.00 is EXACTLY today's low at 0.47 ATR / 1.23% (ATR 2.4531 = 2.63%) - the printed R:R 4.27 is an artefact of a noise-level stop, not real reward-to-risk (Systemic #5). Below EMA200 96.39 (-3.36%), above EMA100 91.74; Momentum pillar 41 Neutral_True - the momentum leg is not even bullish. Event Horizon: interim results dated Sat 2026-08-29, first tradeable HK session Mon 2026-08-31. Also a single unconfirmed print (three straight NO TRADE cv0 before it) across the missing 08-20 snapshot. NO RE-ARM before the 08-31 print. · news |
| — | AI · HK Tech | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today, on either side. The Hong Kong tech tape reversed its washout - names rose over the two sessions since the last read, several by 6-19% - and the buy pool reopened with two real candidates, but both were declined: Xiaomi is a chase of a 5.8% two-day move that followed a quarter in which profit fell 43%, and BYD fails the accounting-quality screen with results due 31 August and a stop only 1.2% away. The single holding, Lenovo, turned in its first constructive signal in four sessions with a twelve-week view 42% above today's price and its stop intact 6.9% above cost, so there is nothing to sell either. Cash stays at HK85% of the book. || OPERATIONAL: verdict NO ACTION both sides; acquire 0 / dispose 0 / anticipate 0; no order to place, reprice, withdraw or expire; nothing pending for the 2026-08-24 open. One book-keeping decision: 0992 trail HELD at 29.40 - not lowered to the row's 29.21, not raised because the chandelier inverted ABOVE the close (Systemic #1). COVERAGE GAP: no 2026-08-20 hktech snapshot exists, so all deltas span two sessions and neither BUY print has intermediate confirmation (Systemic #7). Honest scoreboard on the 08-19 withholds: 1024 +8.94% saved, 2382 -5.74% cost, 9618 -2.31% cost - vindicated, median -2.31%; with no_chase_queue n=6 median +9.01% cost, this is the running case that HT-4's absolute T12 leg is too blunt (Systemic #3, top learnings-review candidate). Valuation FRESH (FetchedAt 2026-08-19 17:15:42, 1d 23.9h). Overlay 47d stale, inert. Scorecard: entries 110, graded 10, calib_1w +0.129, NO actionable cells, all bias 0. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.129 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.