Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.42 | HOLD | 32.42 | 30.78 | 33.65 (+3.8%) | 36.53 (+12.7%) | 46.20 (+42.5%) | Lenovo fully recovered yesterday's 6.2% sell-off, closing +6.8% at 32.42 and back above the level where its AI-product rally peaked, so we are holding all and raising the protective stop rather than taking profits. The technical case is intact - price sits above every moving average with a 12-week view around 46, and on fair value it is the highest-quality business in this universe (quality rank, F-Score 7) trading close to fair, so there is no valuation case to sell into either. Operationally: no sell-origination class fires - label is HOLD not SELL-REDUCE, Exit_Warning blank, conviction only -3, and L2 fails both legs (close 32.42 well above the 30.78 stop, 12wk +42.5%). ADR-0012 arming fails on all three legs on clean un-raced inputs (Gain_ATR 1.62 vs 3.00, T12_Progress 70.17 vs 90, no PROFIT_ARMED) - the 09-08 executor add lifted cost 27.4980->29.0925 which structurally de-arms the position. Stop ratchets 30.09 -> 30.78 (live model stop cleared the watermark), moving the line from 0.9%/0.13 ATR below the close to 5.1%/0.80 ATR and keeping it above cost - a stop-out now banks +HKDeclining yesterday to re-issue the withdrawn 30% trim at 30.36 saved HKCaution noted: the recovery came on 0.84x the sell-off's volume - V-shaped repair, not accumulation - which is why the ratchet matters more than the +11.44% mark. 12wk 46.20 marginally exceeds the 45.64 DCF anchor (+1.2%), so the last ~1% is unfunded by valuation. Estimates use f=0.30 (L5 mandatory, calib_1w -0.183); book has no ADR-0013 Est_* columns. · news |
| 6869 | YOFC | 183.60 | WATCH | 161.08 | 139.77 | n/a | 180.61 (+12.1%) | 205.19 (+27.4%) | YOFC is the strongest-looking buy candidate this book has produced in weeks - up 7.2% on 1.5x volume, above every moving average, momentum score leaping - and we are still not buying it, because the business fails our quality screen and the price already embeds more growth than we can justify paying for. It earns a 5.9% return on equity, generates no positive free cash flow, ranks 15th of 21 on quality, and trades at roughly 12.5 times our intrinsic-value anchor; no pullback fixes a balance sheet, so this is a quality decision rather than a price decision. Operationally: Quality_Pass False is a HARD Step-6 gate on a new entry. Valuation MoS_FV -11.55 pins val_adj at the -10 floor, and the fair-value snapshot was struck at 164.00 on 09-03 so at 183.60 it is a further +12.0% richer. Adjusted conviction 68-10+0 = 58, seven points under the 65 floor. HT-4's 4-week leg fails in the engine's own numbers: Target_Price 180.61 is 1.6% BELOW the 183.60 close (systemic finding #2), though the 12wk leg passes at +11.8%. HT-3 R:R artifact reproduces a sixth time (risk 21.31 vs reward 19.53 = 0.91). And it is a 1.32-ATR chase: close sits 12.3% above the 161.08 model entry, outside the provenance band 156.82-165.34. DELIBERATELY NOT QUEUED at 161.08 - the quality gate blocks the entry at any price, so do not later read this as a missed -12% pullback fill. Scorecard note (report-only, not applied): PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 4/4 at 1wk but 0/4 at 4wk - a one-week edge that fully mean-reverts, exactly the shape a +7% chase walks into. Third consecutive withhold on this name (09-03 quality gate, 09-04 sub-floor). Re-arm requires the quality screen to pass, not a price level. · news |
| — | hktech book-level verdict | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. The one buy candidate that surfaced fails our quality screen outright, and our single holding is behaving well enough that we would rather raise its protective stop than sell any of it - so the book stays 74.7% in cash and simply tightens its risk line. Operationally: 0 ACQUIRE + 0 DISPOSE + 0 ANTICIPATE. Buy pool had exactly one member (6869, withheld on the hard quality gate at adj 58); eleven of twenty-one rows print AVOID for a third straight session; zero BUY - ANTICIPATE prints across 09-04..09-09. No sell origination class fires on 0992. No open GTCs to reprice or expire. Book HK (invested HK / cash HK), +2.66% since the 2026-07-06 HK seed. Nothing to execute at the 2026-09-10 open. CARRIED BLOCKING ISSUE: the 09-08 Auto-Executor integrity defect is un-remediated after a full session (last_run_date still 2026-09-08, no 09-09 transaction); today's NO ACTION means there is nothing queued for it to mis-execute, which is luck rather than containment. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
13 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.183 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.