Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.32 | SELL ALL | 32.32 | 34.85⚠ | 33.77 (+4.5%) | 37.16 (+15.0%) | 43.20 (+33.7%) | Lenovo closed decisively below its trailing stop, falling 8% to 32.32 on heavy volume in a broad HK-tech selloff, so we exit the remaining position and keep the +11% gain rather than ride a broken trend. Pre-named trigger from 10-07 ('decisive close <34.85 = full exit'), resolved FIRED and retired: close 1.4 ATR under the 34.85 trail and under the scan Stop_Price 32.80. No longer PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 1.77); fair value (MoS -0.91), no amplify. (odd lot) at the 10-09 open, ref close 32.32; reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Proceeds ~HKrealized ~+HKon cost 29.0925. Book goes 100% cash. · news |
| — | XIAOMI CORP-W | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Xiaomi's strong-buy is a one-day bounce signal after a run of sell signals, and the model's own 12-week view sits 30% below the price, so we pass rather than catch a falling knife. STRONG BUY/76 single print (AVOID/35 on 10-07), HT-43 single-print veto; HT-4 forward-view-first fails (T12 16.68 vs close 23.66); note B. Optional withhold priced at the 23.97 buy-stop for the counterfactual grader. |
| — | Aac Technologies Holdings (ticker resolves to Ping An Insurance) | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | The buy signal on 2318 is again on Ping An Insurance, not AAC Technologies (2018), and its 12-week view is 21% below the price, so we pass. BUY/66 second print; persistence does not cure an identity defect or a negative forward view (HT-60). |
| PORTFOLIO | hktech | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lenovo broke its stop so we exit it at the next open, and both buy signals are falling-knife setups, so no new money goes in. 0 ACQUIRE / 1 DISPOSE / 0 ANTICIPATE. Book HK (+5.85% vs seed); cash goes to ~100% after the 0992 fill. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
5 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
2.122 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
89 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.