Singapore — End-of-Day Verdict
20th cycle: BUOU (largest position) flips to STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv76 SellRank #1 but SG-2 unmet; O39 profit-take 50% RE-FIRES cleanly (RSI_DIV + dead 12wk) and stays FROZEN under SG-8; two fresh BUY prints (S58, F34) both die on an EPV-anchored val_adj -10
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| S58 | SATS Ltd | 4.77 | WATCH | 4.82 | 4.48 | 4.79 (-0.6%) | 4.71 (-2.3%) | 5.02 (+4.1%) | SATS printed the book's best buy setup in weeks -- a fresh BUY on MomentumContinuation_Up at BuyRank #1, structured as a buy-stop above the close so it only fills on strength, and backed by record FY2026 results (revenue +9.0% to S3bn, net profit +17.0%, total dividend raised 40% to S). We are still not buying it: the intrinsic-value layer scores the shares well above fair value, which cuts conviction from and leaves it just under the 65 bar. Worth noting that penalty rests on an earnings-power anchor of Swhile the same model's discounted-cash-flow estimate says S, so the valuation read is doing all the blocking here, not the risk. Entry range 4.79-4.85, stop 4.48, RSI 74.4, eD +0.44 (no chase). Quality gate PASSES (F-Score 8, Quality_Rank 2). Est ~80% coverage: 1wk 4.79 [4.52-5.09] / 4wk 4.71 [4.37-5.18] / 12wk 5.02 [4.26-5.69]. Re-arm: a BUY reprint holding cv>=75, or a fairvalue regeneration that moves S58 off the EPV anchor. Systemic finding #1. · news |
| F34 | Wilmar International | 3.85 | WATCH | 3.82 | 3.74 | 3.86 (+1.0%) | 3.82 (+0.0%) | 3.79 (-0.8%) | Wilmar printed a BUY on PullbackBuy_VWAP -- normally our most reliable entry family -- but the case does not hold up. Conviction of 60 was already below the 65 bar before the valuation layer took another 10 points off for trading well above fair value, and the model's own 12-week view (3.79) sits below today's 3.85 close, so the forward path does not support paying up either. No entry. Buy-limit 3.82, stop 3.74, RSI 56.8. Est ~80%: 1wk 3.86 / 4wk 3.82 / 12wk 3.79. Same EPV-anchor caveat as S58 (EPV 1.31 vs DCF 3.82) but the technical case is weak on its own merits. L1 favours this family; it does not rescue a sub-floor conviction. |
| BUOU | Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust | 1.00 | NO ACTION | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.99 (-1.0%) | 0.99 (-1.0%) | 0.99 (-1.0%) | Our largest holding flipped character today: after three straight sessions as the book's strongest bullish name, Frasers Logistics printed a STRONG SELL - REDUCE at the top of the sell ranking on an overbought-reversal signal, and its 12-week view has gone slightly negative. We are holding anyway, because the price is still 3.6% above the level that would confirm the reversal, and Singapore sell signals on this book reverse about half the time -- one print is not a trend. The discipline is to wait for the stop, not to anticipate it, and the record shows restraint on trims has cost us nothing. Position SSG-2: 12wk leg met (0.99 vs 0.995, -0.5%), stop-break leg NOT met (close +3.6% above the 0.96 model stop); signal is 1-of-4 after HOLD cv72/85/82; cell ReversalDown_Overbought|sell n=1 hit 0.0 (report-only). MoS -6.03 would amplify a VALID trim one tier but cannot originate one (CLAUDE.md 9). SG-7 blocks the profit-take path (PROFIT_ARMED spurious, no Avg_Cost). Trail raised 0..96. ARM: a settled close < 0.96 fires 50% immediately, escalating to 80% if the 12wk stays negative. Logged optional so the counterfactual grader prices the restraint. |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 29.29 | NO ACTION | 29.29 | 28.15 | 29.17 (-0.4%) | 28.60 (-2.4%) | 29.18 (-0.4%) | OCBC has run 38% year-to-date and 18% in the last month, and the case for banking half the gain got stronger today: the shares now carry a momentum divergence warning on top of a 12-week outlook that no longer projects any further upside, while commentary independently flags the stock as fully valued (price/book 1.9x against a 1.2x historical average). This is the one holding where we know the actual cost, so the profit-take is real rather than. It is not being re-issued only because the account has not been reconciled for twenty sessions. ARMED: real Avg_Cost 25.93, +12.95%, Gain_ATR 5.88 (>=3.0), T12_Progress 100.4% (>=90). TWO TICKS FIRED: (a) new RSI_DIV warning, (c) dead 12wk (29.18 < 1.02 x 29.29 = 29.88) -> profit_take_2 = 50% (500 of S). G1 N/A (ReversalDown_Overbought cv44, not a cv>=80 breakout). MoS -0.61 > -3, no tier bump. FROZEN under SG-8 (20th cycle, zero change) -- carried behind the single sync flag, NOT re-published. Trail raised 27..15 (armed 2.0xATR chandelier) as a state change, not a re-issued card. Q2 results 08-07. · news |
| 9CI | CapitaLand Investment | 2.51 | NO ACTION | 2.51 | 2.44 | 2.51 (+0.0%) | 2.54 (+1.2%) | 2.55 (+1.6%) | CapitaLand Investment jumped to a STRONG SELL - REDUCE today, second-loudest on the book, but neither confirmation we require is present: the price is nearly 3% above the level that would validate the breakdown, and the 12-week view is still positive. The signal family behind it is a coin-flip on this book over 72 graded trades. Holding. Close 2.51 vs 2.44 model stop (+2.9% above); 12wk +1.6% (2.55) -> both SG-2 legs fail. Cell FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell +0 (n=72, hit.50); MoS -1.63 > -3, nothing amplifies. Position S -- immaterial either way. Also a frozen SG-8 100% suspension. CLI 1H results 08-06. |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.48 | NO ACTION | 2.48 | 2.57⚠ | 2.49 (+0.4%) | 2.51 (+1.2%) | 2.52 (+1.6%) | Ascendas REIT is the only holding trading below its stop, and the breach widened again today to 3.5%. We are still not selling: the model's 12-week projection remains positive, and our rule requires both a broken stop and a negative forward view before an exit is signal-based. The position is (about S), so the cost of waiting for confirmation is negligible. Close 2.48 vs 2.57 recorded stop (-3.5%, widened from -1.95% on 07-23); 12wk +1.6% (2.52) -> SG-2/L2 neg-12wk leg fails. MoS -7.86 would amplify a valid exit but cannot originate one. Frozen SG-8 card. CAVEAT (finding #4): the SG REIT Est_12W floor artifact is what manufactures this positive 12wk and has now blocked a genuine multi-session stop-break for three straight cycles. CLAR 1H 08-05. |
| S63 | ST Engineering | 10.59 | NO ACTION | 10.59 | 10.33 | 10.63 (+0.4%) | 10.73 (+1.3%) | 10.62 (+0.3%) | ST Engineering threw a strong sell signal on Friday and it had already faded to a neutral avoid by today's close -- a textbook example of why we require confirmation before acting on Singapore sell labels rather than trading the first print. Holding. Trail 10.33; close 10.59 is +2.5% above it, 12wk +0.3% (10.62). STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv71 on 07-24 -> AVOID cv53 on 07-27 (SG-2/SG-5 fade demonstrated live). MoS -9.10 is the SG EPV band artifact (SG-3), not a sell basis on its own. |
| ME8U | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 1.93 | NO ACTION | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.93 (+0.0%) | 1.94 (+0.5%) | 1.93 (+0.0%) | Mapletree Industrial has settled into a neutral drift -- no sell print today, price holding just above its trailing stop and a flat 12-week outlook. Nothing to act on. Holding on trail 1.90; close 1.93, 12wk 1.93 (flat). AVOID cv43, downgraded from the 07-23 STRONG SELL - REDUCE that was itself declined on SG-2. MoS -9.42 cannot originate a sell (CLAUDE.md 9). |
| C07 | Jardine C&C | 27.44 | HOLD | 27.44 | 25.99 | 27.45 (+0.0%) | 28.02 (+2.1%) | 28.40 (+3.5%) | Jardine Cycle & Carriage remains the only genuinely cheap name we own, trading below our estimate of intrinsic value with a 12-week view 3.5% above the current price, and it reports first-half results on 30 July. Holding through the event -- there is no case for pre-trimming into a catalyst on a name that is both undervalued and above its stop. Close 27.44 vs 25.99 trail (+5.6% above); 12wk +3.5% (28.40); the book's only UNDERVALUED holding (+0.65) so valuation argues a trim DOWN one tier, not up. AVOID cv52, flip-flopping with STRONG SELL-REDUCE across snapshots -- not a stable sell. Catalyst-aware hold: JC&C 1H 07-30. |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 74.38 | HOLD | 74.38 | 69.86 | 74.21 (-0.2%) | 74.28 (-0.1%) | 77.28 (+3.9%) | DBS is deeply overbought at a fresh high with a momentum divergence flashing, but the 12-week view still points nearly 4% higher and we do not trim bank cores on an overbought reading alone. Holding, not adding -- the entry is far too extended to chase. Close 74.38, RSI 80.9, RSI_DIV present; 12wk +3.9% (77.28). SG-4/G3: no RSI-only trim, no chase. SG-7: PROFIT_ARMED is spurious (no Avg_Cost) so the profit-take layer cannot fire here. Stop unchanged 69.86. FOMC 07-29 (SG reaction 07-30); Q2 results 08-06. |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 43.50 | HOLD | 43.50 | 41.93 | 43.40 (-0.2%) | 43.67 (+0.4%) | 45.18 (+3.9%) | UOB is the healthiest of our bank cores right now -- conviction firming through the week on a constructive signal, RSI a comfortable 64 rather than the 80s its peers are printing, and a 12-week view almost 4% higher. Holding and raising the trailing stop. Close 43.50, HOLD cv63 (up from 50/53), stop raised 41..93 (model line); 12wk +3.9% (45.18); MoS -0.59 (> -3, no amplify). SG-4: add only on a non-extended BUY-ADD reprint. FOMC 07-29; Q2 results 08-07. |
| VC2 | Olam Group | 1.41 | HOLD | 1.41 | 1.28 | 1.40 (-0.7%) | 1.38 (-2.1%) | 1.38 (-2.1%) | The Olam buy-stop that filled at Slast Thursday is up 8.5% in three sessions and the valuation case is intact -- our discounted-cash-flow estimate is roughly Sagainst a Sprice. Holding and raising the stop to protect the gain. The one problem is administrative: this fill still is not recorded in the holdings file, which is why the monitor reported a phantom exit today. Signal has eased to NO TRADE cv0 (liquidity gate) -- hold, no add, no chase at RSI 74.5. Trail raised 1..28 (2.5xATR chandelier), first raise since the fill. Est ~80%: 1wk 1.40 / 4wk 1.38 / 12wk 1.38. RECONCILE (SG-8 item 1): record @1.30 dated 2026-07-23 into input/sgportfolio.json. |
| N2IU | Mapletree PanAsia Com Tr | 1.32 | HOLD | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.32 (+0.0%) | 1.33 (+0.8%) | 1.34 (+1.5%) | Mapletree PanAsia is sitting within a whisker of its trailing stop with quarterly results due on 30 July. Holding through the event rather than pre-trimming into it, but the stop is the line -- a settled close below it arms a half-position trim. Close 1.32 vs 1.31 trail (+0.8% only); HOLD cv50 on a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up_20D; 12wk +1.5% (1.34). Model stop has loosened to 1.27 -- keeping the tighter 1.31 as the arm line. SG-7 blocks the profit-take path (spurious PROFIT_ARMED). MPACT 1Q 07-30. |
| S68 | Singapore Exchange | 23.95 | HOLD | 23.95 | 23.14 | 23.96 (+0.0%) | 24.07 (+0.5%) | 24.06 (+0.5%) | SGX firmed back to a constructive hold this session after two neutral days, making a new high for the move with full-year results due 6 August. Holding and raising the stop under it. Close 23.95, HOLD cv62 (recovered from AVOID cv52/54), stop raised 22..14 (model line); 12wk +0.5% (24.06); MoS -1.90 (> -3, no amplify). FY2026 results 08-06. |
| HMN | CapitaLand Ascott Trust | 0.92 | HOLD | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.91 (-0.5%) | 0.91 (-0.5%) | 0.92 (+0.5%) | CapitaLand Ascott Trust reports first-half results tomorrow. No signal either way today and the price is comfortably above its stop, so we hold through the announcement rather than position ahead of it. Close 0.915 vs 0.89 trail (+2.8%); AVOID cv0 / NoSignal; 12wk +0.5% (0.92). Catalyst-aware hold (<=5 sessions): CLAS 1H 2026 on 07-28. Only S. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
97 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.