Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| J69U | FRASERS CPT TR | 2.14 | NO ACTION | 2.15 | 2.18⚠ | 2.14 (-0.5%) | 2.14 (-0.5%) | 2.17 (+0.9%) | Frasers Centrepoint printed the loudest sell signal on the book tonight and we are not taking it. The trust is oversold - RSI 30 - and the model's own forward view still points slightly higher, at 2.17 twelve weeks out against a 2.14 close. This is a rate-driven drawdown across the whole Singapore REIT sleeve, not a problem specific to this trust, and the scheduled-events read prescribes tightening the risk line rather than exiting into it. Selling here is selling the low. OPERATIONAL: SG-2 requires stop-break AND negative 12wk; the stop-break leg passes (-1.83%) but Est_12W 2.17 is +1.4% POSITIVE, so leg 2 fails and the sell is refused. This book's sell cells grade at or below chance (FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell hit_1w.507 / hit_4w.375 over n=73). Horizon: S-REIT hawkish carry-in leg, direction down [-2.5,+0.5], stance TIGHTEN-TRAIL. Stop HELD at 2.18, never lowered. RE-ARM: a settled close below 2.18 with a negative Est_12W. Ledgered optional/direction:none so the grader prices the refusal. |
| C07 | Jardine C&C | 26.98 | NO ACTION | 26.98 | 26.28 | 27.02 (+0.1%) | 27.64 (+2.4%) | 27.23 (+0.9%) | Jardine Cycle & Carriage went ex-dividend today - a US 28c interim payout worth about 1.3% of the price - and that is essentially the entire decline the sell signal is reacting to. The shares are not deteriorating, they have simply detached a dividend, and the company still has an undated special dividend of roughly US 73c per share pending in the same window. The intrinsic work independently rates it undervalued. We hold. OPERATIONAL: SG-2 fails on BOTH legs - no stop break (26.98 vs 26.28) and Est_12W 27.23 is +0.9% POSITIVE. Horizon carries the ex-date as today, direction down, band [-1.4,-1.25], confidence HIGH - the mechanical explanation, pre-empted correctly on 08-28 and honoured now; this is the same arithmetic that misread B61 and HMN for eighteen sessions. Position is / Sbelow any sensible execution threshold. Valuation UNDERVALUED at MoS_FV +0.63 argues DOWN a tier on any trim (amplify-only, section 9). Stop HELD at 26.28. Ledgered optional/direction:none so the grader prices the refusal. |
| A17U | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 2.41 | NO ACTION | 2.41 | 2.42⚠ | 2.41 (+0.0%) | 2.41 (+0.0%) | 2.45 (+1.7%) | CapitaLand Ascendas is a 400-share position worth under S - below any sensible execution threshold - and its forward view is still positive at 2.45 twelve weeks out against a 2.41 close. The sell label comes from the same rate-driven REIT repricing hitting the whole sleeve, and on this book that particular signal family has a losing record. We hold. OPERATIONAL: adj 58 is BELOW the 65 floor once the live RallySell_BearTrend|sell bias of -3 is applied (n=9, hit_1w.333 - negatively actionable; SG-5 requires carrying the live value, not a stale positive). SG-2 leg 2 also fails: Est_12W +1.7%. Breach is a trivial -0.41%. Valuation MoS_FV -7.72 would normally amplify a trim one tier, but section 9 is amplify-only and there is no signal-based sell to amplify; SG-3 also warns the REIT band is miscalibrated here. Horizon: S-REIT leg, stance TIGHTEN-TRAIL. Stop HELD at 2.42. |
| BUOU | FRASER L&C TRUST | 0.93 | NO ACTION | 0.93 | 0.96⚠ | 0.93 (+0.0%) | 0.93 (+0.0%) | 0.95 (+2.2%) | Frasers Logistics is oversold at RSI 30 with its forward view still pointing higher - 0.95 twelve weeks out against a 0.925 close - and the sell signal behind it carries the weakest conviction on the book. This is the rate-repricing drawdown running through every Singapore REIT we own, and the scheduled-events read says tighten the risk line, not exit. We hold the position and keep the stop where it is. OPERATIONAL: adj 35, far below the 65 floor after the live RallySell_BearTrend|sell -3 haircut. SG-2 leg 2 fails (Est_12W +2.7% positive) even though the stop-break leg passes at -3.65%. Valuation MoS_FV -5.81 is deep but section 9 is amplify-only - it cannot originate, and SG-3 says distrust the REIT band anyway. Horizon: S-REIT hawkish leg [-2.5,+0.5], stance TIGHTEN-TRAIL, with NFP 09-04 and US CPI 09-11 both ahead. Position is SStop HELD at 0.96, never lowered. |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.34 | HOLD | 30.65 | 30.52 | 31.27 (+2.0%) | 31.34 (+2.3%) | 32.63 (+6.5%) | OCBC is up nearly 21% and remains the single position in this book with a real, verified behind it. The profit is genuinely large, but nothing has actually deteriorated: the forward view is still alive at 32.63 twelve weeks out, conviction slipped only slightly, and no warning signal has joined the profit flag. The rule in that situation is to raise the trailing stop and keep riding, not to trim. OPERATIONAL: ARMED (Gain_ATR 10.71 on a REAL Avg_Cost 25.9325, +20.85%) but NOT FIRED - all four ADR-0012 ticks checked and none fires: (a) no second Exit_Warning code; (b) conviction is -8, short of the -20 threshold; (c) Est_12W 32.63 > 1.02 x 31.34 = 31.97, forward view alive; (d) not NO TRADE. Armed-without-a-tick is a MANDATORY trail-raise, never a trim. Trail HELD at 30.52 - the 2.0x ATR chandelier computes to 30.33, BELOW the carried level, and a trail never falls. SG-7: this is the book's ONLY genuine arm; the other ten PROFIT_ARMED rows have Avg_Cost NA and are spurious. |
| U11 | United Overseas Bank | 41.42 | HOLD | 41.42 | 41.27 | 41.28 (-0.3%) | 41.36 (-0.1%) | 40.62 (-1.9%) | UOB carries the only materially negative forward view on the book - the model sees 40.62 in twelve weeks against a 41.42 close - but the price has held above its risk line since the 08-31 close repaired it, and the scheduled-events read is constructive for Singapore banks into the September Fed meeting. A negative outlook without a broken risk line is a watch, not a sale, especially on the book's largest position. OPERATIONAL: book note B's exit form (AVOID-degraded-from-SELL-REDUCE + below-stop + negative-12wk) fails its MIDDLE leg - close 41.42 vs stop 41.27, no break. The de-risk card was withdrawn on 08-31 when the close repaired the level and that withdrawal stands. Position Sthe book's largest. Horizon: bank leg, direction UP [-1.0,+2.5]. Stop HELD at 41.27; RE-ARM on a settled close below it. |
| — | sg | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No action tonight - 41st cycle. The buy side is structurally empty (zero bullish actionable labels, Buy_Rank unpopulated across the whole book) and unfundable anyway at Sof cash, 1.3% of the book. All four sell prints are refused under SG-2, which requires a stop-break AND a negative twelve-week view: every candidate's forward view is positive, two are additionally sub-floor after the live -3 RallySell haircut, C07's decline is its ex-dividend, and J69U and BUOU are both at RSI 30. The scheduled-events read explains the whole REIT sleeve mechanically - hawkish carry-in, direction down, stance TIGHTEN-TRAIL - and prescribes trails rather than exits. Six stop breaches, all REITs, none clearing SG-2. The book holds, the stops stand, the one open queue (D05) is withdrawn, and O39's armed-but-unfired profit position gets a trail-hold at 30.52. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
122 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.229 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.