Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.07 | HOLD | 31.07 | 30.42 | n/a | 32.04 (+3.1%) | 40.26 (+29.6%) | We hold the rest of OCBC and simply keep the protective stop where it is. We banked a first slice of this winner at the open today at S, and the remaining are still 8.5% ahead of what we paid, with a 12-week view around S - roughly 30% above the current price. The signal that broke two sessions ago has actually repaired itself: our conviction reading recovered from zero back to 53 and the model's internal readings turned constructive again, so there is no case for cutting further. Two policy events land on Monday - the MSCI index rebalance and the market's first read of the new Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech - and our rule is to hold through a scheduled catalyst rather than pre-empt it. Operational nuance: ADR-0012 PROFIT_ARMED for a 7th session (Gain_ATR 5.02 >= 3.0, +8.52% on 28.63, T12_Progress 77.17) with ZERO of four fire ticks - (a) no other Exit_Warning code; (b) conviction ROSE, the inverse of the 08-26 tick, consensus Conflicted -> Consolidation_Bullish, Momentum; (c) 12wk 40.26 vs 1.02x close 31.69, alive by 27%; (d) NO TRADE streak broken at one. Armed-but-not-fired = mandatory trail-raise, never a trim: the 2.0xATR chandelier off close computes 31.07 - 0.9726 = 30.10, identical to the printed Stop_Price and BELOW the incumbent 30.42, so the trail HOLDS at 30.42 (never steps down). Headroom 2.09% / 1.34xATR. ADR-0020 clean, peak_stop 30.42, 0.0% erosion, watermark freshly based after the 08-28 cut. Scorecard bias -3 from NoTrade (PROFIT_ARMED)|sell (n=5, hit_1w 0.333) - the first ACTIONABLE cell since the ADR-0014 reset, and it argues against reaching for a second trim; optional_trim counterfactual [saved] +1.12% 1wk / +7.71% 4wk (n=8) concurs (advisory only). SGO-3: OVERVALUED_VS_RI + Quality_Pass False + DCF 32.21 are structurally non-binding on an SG bank. Execution reconcile: the 08-26 verdict filled one session late (08-28 open @30.85 vs the @31.44 reference) because the 08-27 scan never ran - realised Snot S, -Sslippage; see systemic finding #3. · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 76.15 | HOLD | 76.15 | 75.43 | n/a | 78.13 (+2.6%) | 89.69 (+17.8%) | DBS is the anchor of the book and there is nothing to do. The shares were flat today, the position is 1.9% ahead of cost, and the 12-week view of Sis still nearly 18% above the price. The bank is earning a 17.5% return on - the best of the three Singapore banks - on record first-half profit, and the position carries no warning flag of any kind. We keep holding on the existing protective stop through Monday's index rebalance and the market's first reaction to the new Fed chair. One thing we are watching closely: the stop has crept up to within 1% of the share price, and this single position is 94% of everything we own in the market, so an ordinary quiet day could knock us out of it for no good reason. Operational nuance: conviction (recovery, not degradation), Exit_Warning blank, NOT armed (Gain_ATR 1.46 < 3.0, T12_Progress 84.9 < 90) so no ADR-0012 path is open and there is no CLAUDE.md 9 sell origination. Trail HOLDS 75.43 - the printed Stop_Price 75.40 is one cent below the incumbent and a trail never steps down. Headroom 0.95% / 0.73xATR, a 4TH consecutive session inside 1xATR on 94.5% of exposure, into the 08-31 MSCI closing auction - systemic finding #1, escalating; Exit_Strategy also flipped fixed_then_trail -> fixed_with_time_stop. ADR-0020 clean (peak_stop 75.43, 0.0% erosion). SGO-3: OVERVALUED_VS_RI + Quality_Pass False + the broken bank DCF (57.01 < 76.15 price) are structurally non-binding on an SG bank (FV=ResInc); suppress the exceeds-DCF-anchor flag. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
35 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.