Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| V03 | Venture Corporation | 16.91 | BUY | 16.91 | 16.74 | 16.98 (+0.4%) | 17.42 (+3.0%) | 16.73 (-1.1%) | Venture is the strongest technical print in the book tonight - a fresh BUY at conviction 78, top of the buy rank, with the price sitting exactly on the model entry so we are paying no premium to get in. The contract manufacturer's own numbers back the move: first-half revenue rose 7.4% to S35bn with second-quarter sales up 15.6% sequentially, the test-and-measurement, networking and semiconductor-equipment arm serving AI infrastructure grew 18.7% year on year, the interim dividend was lifted 20% to 30 cents, and the balance sheet carries S11bn of cash with no borrowings. Valuation is mildly rich rather than stretched, and the quality screen passes. Three cautions are priced into the size rather than ignored: this signal family has gone 0-for-3 in this book at both the one- and four-week marks, the 12-week projection of 16.73 sits BELOW the entry price, and the 16.74 stop is only two-thirds of one ATR away so ordinary daily noise can take it out. The same family printed BUY at conviction 71 on 08-31 at 16.88 and the stock has gone nowhere since. So we take a deliberate 0.75x discretionary haircut on the -capped. OPERATIONAL: L1 warning printed not applied (cell n=3, report-only). Quality gate live on a new entry and PASSED. Market order at the 09-08 open per L8, reprice if the open gaps >1.5%. Size = 0.75x of the Sdry- cap (model S), 100-lot rounded. Risk to stop S = 0.09% of NAV. 12wk 16.73 carries the DCF-anchor annotation (DCF 9.55 vs 16.91 price, GROWTH_PRICED_IN). · news |
| Z74 | Singtel | 4.56 | HOLD | 4.56 | 4.50 | 4.58 (+0.4%) | 4.71 (+3.3%) | 4.60 (+0.9%) | We bought Singtel at this morning's open at 4.52 and it closed at 4.56, so the trade is working and the position stays. We are NOT adding to it a day later. The signal is still a BUY and clears our bar, but conviction has slipped from - our rule is to pyramid into strengthening conviction, not fading conviction - and the 12-week projection of 4.60 is essentially flat against today's 4.56 close, so a second tranche would be buying a four-week trade at a worse basis. The structural case is intact: the KKR-Singtel consortium completed its takeover of data-centre operator STT GDC around 02-Sep, quarterly profit beat on Optus and digital services, roughly S of buybacks have been executed this year, and net debt has fallen from S9bn to S0bn. We raise the stop and let it run. OPERATIONAL: add DECLINED on the CLAUDE.md section 9 pyramid rule (conviction, not strengthening) plus the 0-for-3 FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cell (report-only, n=3) and a flat 12wk. Stop raised 4.45 -> 4.50 (anchor row Stop_Price). Re-arm trigger for an add: conviction back above 78 with Target_12Week clearing 1.02x close. · news |
| O39 | OCBC Bank | 31.88 | HOLD | 31.27 | 31.11 | 32.14 (+2.8%) | 33.17 (+6.1%) | 40.92 (+30.9%) | We sold half of OCBC at this morning's open at 32.14, banking a 12% gain, and the remaining stay put. The position is still sitting on a large profit and is therefore flagged as profit-armed, but not one of the four deterioration triggers fired this session: conviction actually IMPROVED from, the momentum-divergence warning that drove the last three trims has cleared off the row entirely, the 12-week view is alive at roughly +28%, and the signal reads HOLD rather than no-trade. Under our own rules an armed position without a deterioration tick gets a tighter trailing stop, not another trim - so we raise the risk line and hold. The bank's fundamentals remain the strongest in the book: record Q2 net profit of S2bn up 22%, total income S17bn up 18%, first-half wealth income a record S29bn up 27%, and a S5bn capital-return programme completing this financial year. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 ARMED (Gain_ATR 5.68, T12_Progress 77.91) but ZERO ticks fired - (a) no second Exit_Warning code, (b) conviction rose +7, (c) T12 40.92 > 1.02x31.88 = 32.52, (d) not NO TRADE. Mandatory trail-raise path: 2.0x ATR chandelier = 31.88 - 2x0.5718 = 30.74, BELOW the recorded 31.11, and the row Stop_Price prints 30.13 - trails never fall, so the stop is HELD at 31.11, no raise available. Valuation amplify-only and inert (MoS -0.80: no tier bump, no argue-down). SGO-3: Quality_Pass=False and the 32.21 DCF anchor are non-binding on this IsFinancial row. · news |
| D05 | DBS Group Holdings | 78.47 | HOLD | 78.47 | 77.93 | 78.74 (+0.3%) | 80.41 (+2.5%) | 93.32 (+18.9%) | DBS remains the anchor of the book and is held unchanged at a 3% unrealised gain, with the 12-week projection still pointing roughly 19% higher. Tonight the signal cooled - conviction fell from and the label dropped from BUY-ADD back to HOLD - so there is no case to add even before noting that the position already occupies 60% of the book and is at its maximum-weight limit. On the other side, nothing argues for selling: the momentum-divergence warning has cleared, the position is not far enough in profit to arm a profit-take, and the price is holding well above its rising long-term averages. We simply tighten the risk line under it. OPERATIONAL: adj 50 = 53 - 3 val_adj, BELOW the 65 floor, so the add is moot; max_position_pct 60% is also binding (S / NAV S = 60.05%, headroom -S). NOT armed (Gain_ATR 2.39 < 3.0, T12_Progress 84.09 < 90). Stop raised 76.76 -> 77.93 (anchor row Stop_Price; trails never fall). CAUTION: 77.93 sits only 0.69% under the 78.47 close, well inside 1 ATR (0.968) - this is a hair-trigger stop on the book's largest position; if it trips on noise rather than a trend break, treat re-entry as live. SGO-3: Quality_Pass=False and the 57.01 DCF anchor are non-binding on this IsFinancial row. · news |
| J36 | Jardine Matheson | 59.26 | HOLD | 59.26 | 56.74 | n/a | n/a | 47.06 (-20.6%) | Our Jardine Matheson limit order filled at this morning's open at 58.07 and the stock closed at 59.26, so the value catch is 2% in the money on day one. The buy signal that triggered it has already reverted to a cautious reading, which is the risk we knowingly accepted: this was bought as a deep-value mean-reversion trade against a downtrend, not a momentum entry. The valuation case is unchanged and is the best in the book - the shares screen materially below intrinsic worth with the quality screen passing - but the model's own 12-week projection still looks for a fall, and the price remains under its long-term average. We hold on the defined stop and give the position its full three weeks to work rather than reacting to a one-session label flip. OPERATIONAL: filled 4,800 @58.07 (txn sgotr-20260907-0002). Not in the sell pool - AVOID is not a sell label and L2 is unmet (close 59.26 is 4.4% ABOVE the 56.74 stop). NOT armed (Gain_ATR 0.84). Stop HELD at 56.74: the anchor row prints Stop_Price = Close = 59.26, the degenerate FailedBreakout_Down_20D artifact - do NOT write it to state. Exit trigger: decisive close below 56.74 (L2 pairs it with the already-negative 12wk of 47.06). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
43 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.