Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0700 | TENCENT | 433.00 | SELL 50% | 433.00 | 430.00 | 428.59 (-1.0%) | 427.96 (-1.2%) | 435.54 (+0.6%) | Tencent keeps rallying and failing inside a clear downtrend - the shares sit below every major trend line and the signal that names this exact pattern is the most reliable exit indicator this book has, now at its strongest reading of the run. The model sees no gain over the next month. The AI story around Tencent is genuinely good and getting louder, but the share price fell on the very day that news ran, which is the market telling us it is already in the price - so this takes half the position off and leaves half invested in that upside rather than exiting. Operational: STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv77, Sell_Rank #1, daily prints REDUCE (76/70/73/76/66/AVOID55/65/77), flat-stable intraday 74-77-77-77. adj = 77 + 3 = 80, the highest card in the book (RallySell_BearTrend|sell bias +3, n=22 hit_1w.632 - HK-7 live value). Close 433.00 below EMA20 449.37 / EMA50 455.30 / EMA200 496.34, RSI 39.74. Action price 433.00 = the row's own live Entry_Price (Entry_Distance_ATR -0.00); the 09-02 @438.20 limit is repriced, not carried (provenance). 85.46% x 200 =; nearest lot 200 would be a FULL EXIT which a REDUCE label does not authorize, so rounded DOWN to 100 (50%), retaining. Valuation FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.362, Quality_Pass True, F-Score 8, Quality_Rank 3/31, DCF 503.04 - not <= -3 so no tier bump; amplify-only per CLAUDE.md sec9. ADR-0012 arm REJECTED: Gain_ATR 39.15 rests on a corrupt Avg_Cost of 1.00, so realised is uncomputable and no profit-take fires. HK-11 escalation counter - one more unexecuted session forces a market-at-open escalation, then retirement to a WATCH line. L8: executes at the 2026-09-04 open; reprice if it gaps >1.5%. Remaining stop HELD at 430.00 (model 410.93 is lower - a stop is never lowered). WARNING: backfill Avg_Cost in hkportfolio.json. Search snippets served a stale future-dated 605.50 quote - discarded; only the verified quote page (433.00, -1.19%, prev 438.20) was used. · news |
| 3750 | CATL | 567.50 | SELL 33.33% | 567.50 | 556.49 | 576.16 (+1.5%) | 562.72 (-0.8%) | 575.26 (+1.4%) | CATL has been signalling a sell for four straight sessions and trades below every major trend line with momentum deeply depressed, while the model projects the shares essentially flat for the next three months - so there is no return being given up by taking a third of the position off. This exact sale has now been recommended three sessions running without being executed, and this book's most expensive lesson is that unexecuted de-risking, not bad decisions, is what costs it money - so this is the final, escalated issuance, after which the idea is retired rather than repeated. Operational: SELL-REDUCE cv61, Sell_Rank #3, 4 consecutive daily REDUCE prints (55/55/73/61). *** HK-11 MANDATORY ESCALATION - 3rd consecutive unexecuted session (cards 09-01, 09-02, 09-03) *** issued as market-at-open. NOTE THE FLOOR: adj = 61 + 0 = 61, FOUR POINTS BELOW the 65 floor (BreakdownDown_20D|sell bias 0, n=17 hit_1w.500, demoted per HK-8). The card is issued on HK-11 authority, NOT on the floor - HK-11 exists because letting a thrice-repeated exit lapse on a conviction wobble is precisely the failure that cost this book -HKin July, exceeding its entire +HKof monthly alpha. Close 567.50 below EMA20 615.09 / EMA50 632.62 / EMA200 594.30, RSI 32.15, -24.51% underwater (cost 751.80). Action price 567.50 = the row's own Entry_Price, Entry_Distance_ATR 0.00 - provenance CLEAN this session, unlike 09-02 whose 585.32 sell-limit sat 3.7% ABOVE the market and could never have filled; the @592.00 and @564.50 limits are dead and not carried. Portion 49.87% x 300 = 149. -> nearest lot 100 (|149.6-100|=49.6 < |149.6-200|=50.4), retaining; NO upward deviation - an escalation changes urgency, never size. Realised -HKValuation FAIR_VALUE MoS -0.877, Quality_Pass True, DCF 723.58 - no tier bump. ADR-0012 arm void (Gain_ATR -9.79). *** RETIREMENT, effective after this card: if unexecuted at the 09-04 open this exit is NOT re-proposed on 09-05 or after. It retires to a WATCH line and re-arms ONLY on a close below 556.49 *** (the recorded stop, close currently +2.0% above; model Stop_Price 538.29 is LOWER and is not adopted - a stop is never lowered). L8: executes at the 2026-09-04 open. · news |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 119.80 | HOLD | 119.80 | 105.00 | 125.45 (+4.7%) | 132.76 (+10.8%) | 127.59 (+6.5%) | Hua Hong joins the Hang Seng Index tomorrow, which mechanically forces index-tracking funds to buy the shares - a well-evidenced upward catalyst worth an estimated 2% to 9%. A sell signal did appear today, and on size it is the largest in the book, but selling a depressed holding on the eve of forced index buying is the wrong side of a known flow, and the model itself projects the shares higher over one, four and twelve weeks. The position is held through the event with a defined level below which that judgement is abandoned. Operational: STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv70, Sell_Rank #2, adj 70 - CLEARS the 65 floor, declined anyway on three pre-committed grounds. (1) Catalyst-aware hold: 1347 joins the HSI 2026-09-04, the EXACT session an L8 pending order executes into; horizon rates it up [+2.0,+9.0], high confidence, stance hold-through; the rule forbids pre-trimming into a CONFIRMED index add. (2) HK-11 already RETIRED this exit to a WATCH line at 105.00 and a retired exit is never re-issued - close 119.80 is 14% above it. (3) All three horizons positive: 1wk +4.7%, 4wk +10.8%, 12wk +6.5%; the name rose +1.96% today into the event. Exposure at 85.46% x 3000 = HK; -25.12% underwater. Valuation GROWTH_PRICED_IN MoS -19.43 is DEGENERATE (EPV 5.86 vs a 119.80 price) and carries no weight either way. EXIT RE-ARMS at the 2026-09-07 EOD - the post-inclusion unwind session - or earlier on a close below 105.00. HK-12 note: Stop_Price 105.45 is finally below the close, improved from yesterday's +13.2% inverted 133.04. · news |
| 0823 | LINK REIT | 38.22 | HOLD | 38.22 | 38.70⚠ | 38.19 (-0.1%) | 38.16 (-0.2%) | 37.35 (-2.3%) | Link REIT is trading slightly below its protective level, and the condition set yesterday for acting on that was a close beneath 38.20 - it closed at 38.22, two cents above. A pre-agreed trigger is either honoured or it is worthless, so no action is taken. On a high-yielding property trust a mildly lower three-month path is largely what the dividend itself does to the share price, and the next month is projected flat. The protective level is left unchanged rather than lowered. Operational: AVOID cv42 (firmed from NO TRADE cv0), breach widened to -1.24% (38.22 vs 38.70) from -0.41%. The 09-02 pre-committed re-arm was 'a close below 38.20 with a negative 12wk': leg 2 FIRES (Est_12W 37.35, -2.3%), leg 1 MISSES BY HK. cv42 cannot clear the 65 floor on its own regardless. 1wk -0.1%, 4wk -0.2%. Stop HELD at 38.70, never lowered. RE-ARM UNCHANGED and deliberately NOT loosened to meet today's print: a close below 38.20 with a negative 12wk. PROFIT_ARMED is void here - no Avg_Cost recorded. |
| 0981 | SMIC | 68.05 | HOLD | 68.05 | 69.63⚠ | 68.53 (+0.7%) | 70.97 (+4.3%) | 69.92 (+2.7%) | SMIC has slipped further below its protective level, and the drop is now meaningful rather than marginal - but the exit rule this book uses requires BOTH a decisive break AND a negative forward view, and the model still projects the shares higher over one and three months. Half a rule is not a sell case. The position is held with the protective level unchanged. Operational: AVOID cv50, flat across all four intraday prints. Breach -2.27% (68.05 vs 69.63), third consecutive session below, and the L2 DECISIVE qualifier is arguably now met - but L2 leg 2 FAILS for the third session: Est_12W 69.92 is +2.75% POSITIVE and Est_4W is +4.3%. Stop HELD at 69.63, never lowered. RE-ARM: a close below 69.63 with Est_12W turning negative. HK-12: model Stop_Price 73.72 prints 8.3% ABOVE the close - inverted; a stop above the close on a long is not a stop, and it is rejected. PROFIT_ARMED void - no Avg_Cost recorded. |
| 2513 | KNOWLEDGE ATLAS | 1108.00 | HOLD | 1108.00 | 980.00 | 1114.64 (+0.6%) | 1114.91 (+0.6%) | 1212.32 (+9.4%) | Knowledge Atlas is flagging a sell, but the reading carries very low confidence and the signal family behind it is right only about half the time on a large sample - meanwhile the model still projects the shares meaningfully higher over three months. This is also the position where holding through an index event in late August was rewarded with a 9.6% one-day gain. It is held, with a defined level below which the decision is revisited. Operational: STRONG SELL-REDUCE cv38, Sell_Rank #4, stable across all 4 intraday prints, price (-0.81%). adj = 38 - TWENTY-SEVEN points below the 65 floor (FailedBreakout_Down_20D|sell bias 0, n=65 hit_1w.508, a coin flip on the book's best-sampled cell; valuation NA - EPV -94.73, F-Score 3, negative FCF, unusable). All three horizons POSITIVE: 1wk +0.6%, 4wk +0.6%, 12wk +9.4%. HOLD; WATCH line 980.00 stands. The September HK IPO lock-up expiry window (horizon stance tighten-trail) touches this name class and is why the line is not widened. HK-12: Stop_Price 898.38 is a -18.9% width - wide, but resolved from yesterday's ZERO-WIDTH 1116.99 against an 1117.00 close. PROFIT_ARMED void - Gain_ATR -5.03. |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 163.50 | HOLD | 163.50 | 159.95 | 162.59 (-0.6%) | 162.35 (-0.7%) | 160.07 (-2.1%) | HSBC is the strongest reading in the book, with confidence climbing steadily all week and the shares above every major trend line. No shares are added - this is already the largest equity holding and this book's record on adding to momentum names is poor - but the protective level is raised to lock in more of the gain. Operational: HOLD cv86, conviction trail 39/39/42/63/86. Close 163.50 above EMA20 161.73 / EMA50 158.22 / EMA200 139.60. Signal prints a buy-stop at 164.42 (Entry_Distance_ATR +0.41) - NO ADD proposed: = HKalready, and HK-1 forbids up-sizing a momentum-family name. Exit_Warning prints RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED but the ARM IS VOID under today's standing ruling (0005 carries NO Avg_Cost at all), so no profit-take fires; G1 independently protects a cv86 bullish name from an RSI_DIV-alone trim. Per ADR-0012, armed-but-not-fired means TRAIL-RAISE: model Stop_Price 159.95 is ABOVE the recorded 159.50, so THE TRAIL IS RAISED to 159.95. Recorded dissonance: Est_12W 160.07 (-2.1%) is mildly negative on a cv86 name - a HOLD, not a sell case, but it is why the trail is raised rather than the position added to. Valuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0, gate off. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.56 | HOLD | — | 9.23 | 9.60 | 9.76 | 9.72 | China Construction Bank gives no clear signal either way, with the model reporting conflicting indicators, but all three forward projections are positive and the shares are holding up. The position is held and the protective level left where it is. Operational: NO TRADE cv0, NoTrade_Reason verbatim: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. Close 9.565 on the book's second-largest position (, HK). RSI 67.55. Horizons all positive: 1wk +0.4%, 4wk +2.0%, 12wk +1.6%. TRAIL HELD at 9.23 - the 2xATR chandelier from today's close computes to 9.10, which is LOWER, and a stop is never lowered. Valuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0, gate off. PROFIT_ARMED void - no Avg_Cost recorded. |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 162.00 | HOLD | — | 155.02 | 166.52 | 171.01 | 171.70 | ASMPT gives no clear signal, with the model reporting conflicting indicators, but the shares have pulled further clear of their protective level and all three forward projections are positive. Held, unchanged. Operational: NO TRADE cv0, NoTrade_Reason verbatim: 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. Close 162.00 vs recorded stop 155.02 = +4.5% cushion, improved from +1.5% on 09-02. -17.49% underwater (cost 196.35). Horizons: 1wk +2.8%, 4wk +5.6%, 12wk +6.0%. HOLD, stop 155.02. PROFIT_ARMED void - Gain_ATR -4.01, negative. |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 233.40 | HOLD | 233.40 | 229.36 | 232.96 (-0.2%) | 230.03 (-1.4%) | 220.70 (-5.4%) | Standard Chartered has pulled further clear of its protective level and the earlier breach is now fully resolved. No action needed. Operational: HOLD cv63 (adj 65 with FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell bias +2, n=5 - a HOLD label, not a sell candidate). Close 233.40 vs stop 229.36 = +1.8%, widening from +0.7% on 09-02. HOLD, stop 229.36 - the model's 224.02 is BELOW the recorded line and is not adopted, a stop is never lowered. Valuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0, gate off. PROFIT_ARMED void - no Avg_Cost recorded. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 33.40 | HOLD | 33.40 | 28.00 | 35.23 (+5.5%) | 37.07 (+11.0%) | 35.44 (+6.1%) | This leveraged ETF remains deeply underwater but does not meet this book's standard for exiting such a position, which deliberately requires a much stronger signal than for an ordinary holding - a past exit on a weak reading missed a sharp bounce. All three forward projections are above the current price. Held. Operational: AVOID cv53, flat across all four intraday prints, -70.84%. The leveraged-ETF rule (feedback_leveraged_etf_exits) requires conviction >= 70 with 3 prints below the stop, OR a breakdown-family signal - NEITHER holds (FailedBreakout_Down_20D at cv53; close 33.40 vs the 28.00 WATCH line, +19% above). Horizons: 1wk +5.5%, 4wk +11.0%, 12wk +6.1%. HOLD, WATCH line 28.00. HK-12: model Stop_Price 41.34 is 24% ABOVE the close - inverted, rejected. PROFIT_ARMED void - Gain_ATR -20.44, the starkest illustration of the inverted-arm defect in the book. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
196 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.261 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.