Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2513 | Z.AI CO., LTD (KNOWLEDGE ATLAS) | 819.00 | SELL 85.46% | 819.00 | 682.51 | 872.95 (+6.6%) | 931.00 (+13.7%) | 992.62 (+21.2%) | Cutting 80% of our position in this AI model developer after it fell 10.3% in a single session, the worst drop in the book. The stock has printed a stable STRONG SELL signal for three straight sessions and has now broken decisively through the 847 level we had set as our line in the sand. The shares are still up enormously since their January listing, which leaves plenty of room to fall further in a market that is turning against high-priced AI names — the Hang Seng fell 1.5% today on oil above and a US tech selloff. We keep to stay in the story. OPS: HK-11 session-3 FINAL escalation, pre-committed in the 09-09 card; retirement WATCH 847.45 broken by 3.36%. Non-execution of the 09-09 card cost HKin one session. Valuation layer blind (NA). Basis is HK-9 (1-week instrument), NOT the 12wk view, which is positive (+21%) and non-degenerate (T12_Progress 82.51 — the only holding meaningfully below 90). Residual stop 682.51 (live model, 1.44 ATR, non-degenerate). Executes into the 09-11 Oracle read-through. · news |
| 1347 | HUA HONG GRACE SEMICONDUCTOR | 113.00 | SELL 85.46% | 113.00 | 105.00 | 117.28 (+3.8%) | 124.33 (+10.0%) | 117.81 (+4.3%) | Taking 83% off this chip foundry position, which is 29% underwater. The stock has flipped back to a STRONG SELL at its highest conviction reading in a week, and commentary confirms the picture — after a 293% run this year the shares have stalled and are cooling off. The company earns thin margins (14-16% guided) in a business that is highly exposed to the US-China trade fight. We keep. OPS: HK-11 re-arm FIRES on the conviction branch — the recorded trigger was 'a close below 105.00 OR a fresh REDUCE at cv >= 65' and this prints REDUCE cv70. Valuation amplify WITHHELD under G2 (EPV 5.86 vs 113 price is degenerate; DCF blank). Selling into a +1.25% up day, the good print the re-arm was waiting for. The 09-14 HSI Group-2 event is LOW confidence and unconfirmed — explicitly NOT allowed to block this exit again after the 09-03 catalyst-aware hold on this same name was recorded WRONG at -HKResidual stop held 105.00 (model 99.08 would lower the line — refused, HK-12). · news |
| 0700 | TENCENT HOLDINGS | 425.60 | SELL 85.46% | 425.60 | 408.41 | 421.43 (-1.0%) | 422.63 (-0.7%) | 417.35 (-1.9%) | Halving a small Tencent position after the shares closed below 430, a level we had set four sessions ago as the trigger to sell. All three of our forward estimates now point slightly down, and the stock has printed a sell signal for three straight sessions. This is a modest, disciplined de-risk on a position worth only HKrather than a call against the company — on fundamentals the shares still look reasonably valued. OPS: HK-11 price re-arm FIRES (close 425.60 < WATCH 430.00, first break in 4 sessions); also a monitor stop breach (-1.02%) and the stale overlay's standing override names the same 430 line. Est_1W/4W/12W all negative (-0.98/-0.70/-1.94%). DCF 503.04 sits 18% ABOVE spot, so valuation argues trim-the-minimum — already at the 100-share board-lot minimum, no tier bump. Counterweight noted: Tencent-backed Enflame (17.95% stake) debuts in Shanghai 09-11 after a IPO, on the execution session. Residual stop reset to the live model 408.41 now that the 430 watch line has been acted on. · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 63.45 | HOLD | 63.45 | 62.78 | 63.91 (+0.7%) | 64.34 (+1.4%) | 67.24 (+6.0%) | Not sold. This position clears every quantitative bar to be cut today, but we gave our word yesterday that it was the last time we would propose it, and the conditions we set for reconsidering have not been met. Discipline about not re-issuing the same unexecuted trade over and over is worth more than this one trade. OPS: HK-11 FINAL escalation was 09-09; retirement now in force. Re-arm requires close < 62.78 (today 63.45, 1.07% above) OR a fresh REDUCE at cv >= 65 FOLLOWING a rally back above 69.63 (name fell 65.00 -> 63.45; not met). Floor-clearing at adj 72 and NOT actioned — deliberate. Non-execution of the 09-09 card cost HKStop held 62.78 (model 58.33 would lower — refused, HK-12). |
| 0823 | LINK REIT | 38.62 | HOLD | 38.62 | 38.70⚠ | 38.48 (-0.4%) | 38.42 (-0.5%) | 38.41 (-0.5%) | Holding, but this is now on a hair trigger. The price closed fractionally below our 38.70 stop — 8 cents, well inside a normal day's range, so not yet a genuine break. A decisive move lower cuts the position immediately. OPS: monitor stop breach -0.21% = 0.15 ATR, NOT decisive, so the L2 stop-break + negative-12wk exit does not fire today. Sixth consecutive thin hold. Est_12W 38.41 (-0.54%) is negative but degenerate (T12_Progress 100.55). Hard line: a close below ~38.40 (0.4 ATR) arms L2 on the spot. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.77 | HOLD | 9.77 | 9.35 | 9.74 (-0.3%) | 9.90 (+1.3%) | 9.82 (+0.5%) | Holding the book's steadiest position, which rose 1.6% on a day the market fell 1.5% and now carries the highest conviction reading in the portfolio. OPS: cv (+25), the strongest print in the book. RSI_DIV + PROFIT_ARMED both print, but Avg_Cost is blank and the arming rests on the degenerate T12_Progress branch (99.44) — no ADR-0012 profit-take on this book. HOLD is not a buy label, so this is not an acquire candidate. Stop held 9.35 (model 9.27 would lower — refused, HK-12). |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 164.70 | HOLD | 164.70 | 163.18 | 164.41 (-0.2%) | 163.74 (-0.6%) | 164.28 (-0.3%) | Holding the largest position in the book, now within 1% of its stop after a quiet 0.8% decline. No signal either way — the model reads it as conflicted. OPS: NO TRADE cv0, 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'. HK = 37.4% of the book, only 0.92% above the 163.18 trail — the tightest clearance on the largest line. Model prints no stop; manual 163.18 stands. 09-11 US PPI and 09-14 CPI both touch it. |
| 0522 | ASMPT | 165.00 | HOLD | 165.00 | 155.02 | 168.84 (+2.3%) | 175.91 (+6.6%) | 172.00 (+4.2%) | Holding. The sell case that was withdrawn yesterday has weakened further, so there is nothing to act on. OPS: AVOID cv47, 18 points below the floor; not re-armed (WATCH 155.02 vs 165.00 close). Model Stop_Price 184.18 prints 11.6% ABOVE the close — inverted and unusable, rejected under HK-12; manual 155.02 stands. Re-arms on a fresh REDUCE at cv >= 65 or a close below 155.02. |
| 3750 | CATL | 561.50 | HOLD | 561.50 | 556.49 | 562.26 (+0.1%) | 558.91 (-0.5%) | 564.87 (+0.6%) | Holding — barely. The price sits less than 1% above the line that would trigger a sale, and the shares have gone nowhere for three sessions. OPS: HK-11 retirement honoured a FIFTH session (556.49 vs 561.50 close, 0.90% clearance); AVOID cv58, no REDUCE label, so neither re-arm branch fires. Model Stop_Price 593.13 is 5.6% ABOVE the close — inverted, rejected (HK-12). The 09-08 cv82 spike has now fully decayed, vindicating the retirement. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX (SK Hynix 2x) | 44.10 | HOLD | 44.10 | 28.00 | 43.52 (-1.3%) | 48.42 (+9.8%) | 46.26 (+4.9%) | Holding this leveraged ETF, down 61%. Yesterday's brief sell signal has already faded back to a neutral avoid, which is exactly the whipsaw pattern that makes us trim rather than dump these instruments. OPS: HK-11 retirement line 28.00 (36% below market, not re-armed); leveraged-2x rule also blocks a full exit (needs cv >= 70 + 3 prints + price < Stop_Price; this is cv60 on a faded single print). Model Stop_Price 52.52 prints 19% ABOVE the close — inverted, rejected (HK-12). 09-11 Korea semi exports and the Oracle read-through both touch it. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
210 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.241 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.