HK Financials — End-of-Day Verdict
1 ACQUIRE (0005 BUY @163.50) x 1 DISPOSE (3968 SELL FULL EXIT @47.82); 2888 08-14 trim WITHDRAWN, stop held 228.47
Recommendations
1 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 163.50 | BUY | 163.50 | 161.80 | 163.84 (+0.2%) | 161.78 (-1.1%) | 165.54 (+1.2%) | HSBC prints the book's first actionable buy in 28 sessions: a BUY at conviction 68 and Buy_Rank 1, with the shares closing above every moving average from the 5-day to the 200-day and only 3.7% below their 52-week high. We are buying at the model's own entry level rather than chasing a move, and the 12-week view stays positive, so this is a continuation of an intact uptrend rather than a bet on a falling knife. The offset is that the model's central four-week estimate sits almost exactly on the stop, and this signal family has a poor record in Hong Kong financials, so the position is deliberately opened at the minimum tradeable lot - 3.25% of the book - rather than a full-size entry. Valuation is uninformative here (NA_CCY currency mismatch), so the case is technical. OPERATIONAL: action price 163.50 is simultaneously the settled close and the printed Entry_Price, Entry_Distance_ATR 0.00 (no chase); entry range 162.87-164.13; board lot 400, floored from 651. per book convention; L8 pending_next_open, reprice if the 08-18 open gaps outside 161.05-165.95. HF-4 clears for the first time in this sequence (Est_1W 163.84 > entry 163.50); HF-3's falling-knife gate clears (Est_12W non-inverted +1.25%). L1/HF-3 caution applies as a rule not a bias - no FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy cell exists in the scorecard, and all five previously-graded filled hkfin buys stopped first. Stop 161.80 is only 0.68 ATR and sits inside the +/-2.5% FOMC-minutes band of 08-19; honoured without argument if it goes. Tipping factor: no_chase_queue counterfactual n=6, median +11.32% @4wk cost, against 82% idle cash. The 08-10 anticipate re-arm trigger is superseded by this actual BUY print and is retired. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 47.82 | SELL ALL | 47.82 | 48.10⚠ | 47.78 (-0.1%) | 48.31 (+1.0%) | 48.70 (+1.8%) | We are closing the China Merchants Bank position entirely. The shares have now closed below our risk line for a second straight session and the gap has doubled, they sit below every moving average we track including the 200-day, and the signal engine has been unable to form any view on the name for five sessions running. This is a sound, high-quality bank - it screens well on fundamentals and its forward estimates are still mildly positive - but the price has broken the level we committed in advance to sell at, and honouring that line is the whole point of setting it. A rate decision on 20 August that would squeeze mainland bank margins adds to the case. The loss is small and deliberate: that is what a stop is for. OPERATIONAL: close 47.82 vs stop 48.10 = -0.58% / -0.36 ATR, twice the 08-14 breach; 5th consecutive NO TRADE cv0, NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction', Pillar_Consensus Indeterminate, Exit_Strategy none; below EMA5/10/20/50/100/200 (48.16/48.48/48.46/48.02/48.09/48.28), VWAP -2.90%, failed reclaim (open 48.28 at EMA200, high 48.30, close near the 47.70 low). RE-ISSUE of the unexecuted 08-14 card - executor stale 7 sessions - absorbing the 08-12/08-13 1,000-sh trim per the written 08-13 pre-commitment 'FULL EXIT of the residual on ANY close below 48.10'. L2 does NOT fire (Est_12W 48.70 = +1.84%, non-inverted, 4th session) - basis is the pre-committed stop + sustained NoTrade, not L2. PROFIT_ARMED SUPPRESSED for a 5th session on the arm criterion (Gain_ATR -1.05, at a loss) - explicitly NOT a profit-take. HF-5 cleared twice over: no 3968 ex-div in the 08-18/08-31 horizon and Yahoo confirms last ex-date 2026-07-02. Counter-evidence recorded and overruled: breach inside one ATR, positive forward estimates, Quality_Pass TRUE / F-Score 5 / MoS +0.245 (highest-quality name in the book), NoTrade|sell 0-for-4 on 1wk (report-only n<5), optional_trim counterfactual n=49 median +1.72%/+5.96% saved, 9.17% forward yield and 58.71 analyst target (not an origination class, not used). Board lot 500, 4 clean lots; proceeds HK, realised -HK, cumulative realised +HK; reprice if the open gaps outside 47.10-48.54. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.30 | WATCH | 5.30 | 5.28 | 5.32 (+0.4%) | 5.37 (+1.3%) | 5.37 (+1.3%) | Near-miss, not bought. Conviction 58 is 7 points under the 65 floor and the label is WATCH, which is not an actionable Action, so it never entered the buy pool. The 12-week view is mildly positive (+1.22%). Re-arms on a BUY print at conviction >= 65. Trail ->. |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 8.90 | WATCH | 8.90 | 8.80 | 8.86 (-0.4%) | 8.95 (+0.6%) | 8.87 (-0.3%) | Near-miss, not bought. Conviction 58 is 7 points under the 65 floor on a WATCH label. Interim results on 2026-08-28 (horizon band +/-4%, stance tighten-trail) argue against opening ahead of the print in any case. Trail ->. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.145 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.