Recommendations
3 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.41 | BUY | 5.41 | 5.32 | 5.43 (+0.4%) | 5.48 (+1.3%) | 5.48 (+1.3%) | Bank of China is consolidating constructively rather than breaking down: the shares sit above every one of their six moving averages with RSI 58.7, and conviction has climbed on four straight sessions to into a clean actionable buy at the model's own entry level, with no chase required. It is the only candidate in the book whose one-week, four-week and twelve-week forward views all agree with the buy signal, and the entry is taken at full size for exactly that reason. Valuation cannot be read (HKD price against CNY accounts) so the trade rests on the technical case alone; the main risk is tomorrow's China loan prime rate fixing, which would squeeze lending margins if cut. OPS: base 26.5% x HKx 20% = HK, modulator 1.0x, no gate reduction (HF-3 and HF-4 both CLEAR: Est_1W 5.43 > entry 5.41; Est_12W 5.48 > close, +1.29% non-inverted); /5.41 = 19,673 -> board lot 1,000 -> = HK = 5.39% of book. Buy_Rank 3, Entry_Distance_ATR 0.00, Position_Status NEW, Regime Ranging, Vol_Tier mid_vol. Stop 5.32 = 0.94 ATR. Target_Price 5.60 (+3.51%) is the risk objective, distinct from the 4wk estimate. Cautions carried: L1/HF-3 disfavour the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D family and its buy cell is UNGRADED at n=2 (bias 0, rules applied not bias); China LPR fixing 08-20 one session after entry; 3988 is ABSENT from the parent hk_horizon so its event window is uncovered, not verified clear. Tipping factor: no_chase_queue counterfactual n=8, median +1.60% @1wk / +11.32% @4wk labelled COST, against 82% idle capital. Reprice if the open gaps outside 5.33-5.49 (+-1.5%, L8). |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 7.43 | BUY | 7.43 | 7.33 | 7.40 (-0.4%) | 7.50 (+0.9%) | 7.51 (+1.1%) | Bank of Communications carries the same conviction as Bank of China and the better rank of the two, with the shares above all six moving averages, RSI 57.8 and conviction rising four sessions from a low base. It is taken at half the normal size for one specific reason: the model's one-week projection sits fractionally below the entry price, meaning the forecasting layer disagrees with the buy signal over the near term even though the four- and twelve-week views are both positive. The stop is the tightest of today's three purchases, so an unfriendly reaction to tomorrow's China rate fixing could take it out on noise, and forward earnings estimates are the weakest of the group. Half size buys the position while respecting that disagreement. OPS: base HK, modulator 1.0x, x0.5 HF-4 gate modifier (Est_1W 7.40 < Entry 7.43, -0.22 ATR SINGLE-LEG trip - Est_4W 7.50 is above entry, versus the double-below signature of HF-4's 07-16 2888 evidence case) = HK; /7.43 = 7,162 -> board lot 1,000 -> = HK = 2.59% of book. HF-3 inversion leg CLEARS: Est_12W 7.51 > close 7.425 (+1.08%). Buy_Rank 2, close 7.425 vs entry 7.43, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.04 = queue-on-strength not a chase. Stop 7.33 = 0.74 ATR (tightest of the three). Target_Price 7.70 (+3.63%). Cautions: L1/HF-3 family caution, buy cell UNGRADED n=2 (bias 0); EPSGrowth_Fwd -11.8%, worst of the three (advisory only, NA_CCY bars val_adj); China LPR fixing 08-20; 3328 ABSENT from the parent hk_horizon - uncovered, not clear. Reprice if the open gaps outside 7.32-7.54 (+-1.5%, L8). |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.05 | BUY | 9.05 | 8.89 | 9.03 (-0.2%) | 9.14 (+1.0%) | 9.06 (+0.1%) | China Construction Bank is the only name in the book to print an actionable buy on two consecutive sessions at the same conviction, and its setup has genuinely improved: the twelve-week forecast has flipped from below the share price to above it, removing the objection that halved the position yesterday. The purchase is repriced 1% higher than yesterday's unfilled instruction rather than carried at the stale level. Size stays at half because the one-week forecast still sits marginally below the entry and because CCB reports interim results and decides its dividend on 28 August, a binary event seven sessions out. Tomorrow's loan prime rate fixing is the near-term risk to lending margins. OPS: PROVENANCE - 9.05 is simultaneously the anchor settled close AND the printed Entry_Price, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.00, NO CHASE; yesterday's HKis DISCARDED per the Step 7 provenance rule, not republished. Non-execution cost stated: same now HKvs HKHKworse. Base HK, modulator 1.0x, x0.5 HF-4 gate modifier = HK; /9.05 = 5,880 -> board lot 1,000 -> = HK = 2.70% of book. GATE DELTA vs 08-18: HF-3 inversion leg now CLEARS (Est_12W 9.06 > Close 9.05, was -0.11 ATR below); HF-4 still trips but at HALF magnitude (-0.11 ATR vs -0.28), Est_4W 9.14 comfortably above entry. Strictly better than the setup that justified a half-size buy yesterday; half size RETAINED not upsized, since a +0.11% 12wk view is a technical clear rather than a real forward case, and it is why this ranks 3rd of 3. Buy_Rank 4, Position_Status NEW. Stop 8.89 = 0.86 ATR. Target_Price 9.42 (+4.09%), best risk objective of the three. Horizon: FOMC minutes reaction 08-20 = tighten-trail on this exact ticker, stop sits inside a +-2.5% macro band; CCB interims + dividend 08-28 = tighten-trail. Buy cell UNGRADED n=2, bias 0, L1/HF-3 applied as rules. Reprice if the open gaps outside 8.91-9.19 (+-1.5%, L8). |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 233.60 | SELL 30% | 233.60 | 228.47 | 234.74 (+0.5%) | 234.42 (+0.4%) | 226.37 (-3.1%) | Standard Chartered has been a good holding, up 2.17%, but the model now projects the shares roughly 3% LOWER over twelve weeks than where they trade today, and the near-term view is flat. The stock has made a confirmed lower high and closed down two sessions running while conviction sits at a weak 43. Taking 30% off the table banks the gain on that slice and leaves to run if the lower high is invalidated, with the protective stop held at HK. This is a disciplined partial profit-take on a deteriorating forward view, not a call that the bank is in trouble. OPS: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED + tick (c). PROFIT_ARMED via T12_Progress_Pct 103.19 (close ABOVE the 12wk target); Gain_ATR 1.11. Tick (c) DEAD FORWARD VIEW fires: Target_12Week 226.37 < 1.02 x 233.60 = 238.27, and 226.37 is below the close outright (-3.10%). Ticks (a) no other Exit_Warning code, (b) conviction FLAT (yesterday's -22 collapse stabilised, not reversed), (d) no NO TRADE prints. ONE tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%, never a full exit from a profit-take. HF-2 CHECKED, DOES NOT APPLY - not an oversold-family falling knife: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, RSI 54.8, real +2.17% gain, 2.67% under the 240.00 52W high; the arm is legitimate. G1 does not protect (not a fresh BreakoutUp/Momentum at cv>=80; cv43 is less than half that bar). G3 SATISFIED (forward view negative). G2 moot (NA_CCY). VALUATION AMPLIFY BARRED: MoS_FV -7.51 would bump but Val_Signal is NA_CCY (GBP/USD-reporting vs HKD-price artefact) -> base tier retained. Volume 30% x 1,100 = 330 -> board lot 50 ->, leaving 750; proceeds HK, realised +HK. STOP UNCHANGED at 228.47 = peak_stop; the scan prints 224.61 which is BELOW peak and a risk line is never lowered. ADR-0020: 224.61 vs peak 228.47 = -1.69%, far inside the 15% Trail Erosion threshold, no mandatory trim from that class. HF-5 CLEARED: HKD 0.204 dividend went ex 2026-08-06, nine sessions past, not an ex-div artefact. RE-ISSUED unfilled from 08-18 (executor stale 9th session); the delay has already cost HKon. Counterfactual optional_trim n=50 median +1.60%/+5.96% SAVED argues against and is OVERRULED - a fired ADR-0012 tick is a mandatory DISPOSE, not an optional trim. Reprice if the open gaps outside 230.10-237.10 (+-1.5%, L8). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
15 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
0.145 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.