Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.90 | SELL 50% | 51.90 | 49.59 | 51.81 (-0.2%) | 52.25 (+0.7%) | 51.67 (-0.4%) | China Merchants Bank has run 6.7% above our cost into an overbought reversal and the model has turned an outright seller: it is the top-ranked sell in the book at STRONG SELL - REDUCE conviction 72, RSI 71, with a twelve-week view (51.67) that now sits below today's price. We bank half the position into that strength and let the rest run behind a raised stop. Label upgraded overnight from AVOID cv62 to a formal STRONG SELL - REDUCE cv72 at Sell_Rank #1 (engine 84.59 = target full exit); independently PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 2.82 on real cost 48.65, +6.68%) with ADR-0012 tick (c) firing (Target_12Week 51.67 < 1.02x51.90). HF-2 inapplicable - ReversalDown_Overbought is overbought-family, not oversold, and there is an independent formal SELL basis regardless. Sized to the 50% tier ( = of 500), escalated from yesterday's 25% because the AVOID-calibrated discount is retired by the formal REDUCE label; held back from the engine's 84.59% full exit because this is the FIRST REDUCE print and ReversalDown_Overbought|sell is n=4 report-only. SUPERSEDES the unfilled 09-02 card of 500 @51.75 - does not stack. Valuation NA_CCY so val_adj 0 and no tier bump. Stop raised 49.39 -> 49.59 (chandelier 2.0xATR, matches the engine's printed long-side Stop_Price). L8: executes at the 2026-09-04 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5%. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.95 | SELL 30% | 5.95 | 5.73 | 6.01 (+1.0%) | 5.96 (+0.2%) | 5.92 (-0.5%) | Bank of China is our biggest winner at +9.4% and the most overbought name in the book at RSI 74.3, and the model's bull case vanished overnight - the twelve-week view (5.92) now sits half a percent below today's price. We bank 30% of the gain and keep the majority of the position, sized down from the rulebook's 50% because this book's record on selling 'no trade' prints is poor. ADR-0012 profit-take: genuinely armed on the trustworthy leg (Gain_ATR 3.68 >= 3.0, real Avg_Cost 5.44, +9.37%), fired by TWO ticks - (b) bull-case conviction collapse BUY - ADD cv74 -> NO TRADE cv0, a -74 drop through the -20 bar, NoTrade_Reason 'Consensus conflict + low conviction'; and (c) dead forward view, Target_12Week 5.92 < 1.02x5.95. Two ticks map to profit_take_2 = 50%, CUT ONE TIER to profit_take_1 = 30% on the NoTrade|sell actionable cell (bias -10, n=5, hit_1w 0/5 - this book has sold five NoTrade rows and been wrong at one week on every one), reinforced by the optional_trim counterfactual (n=74, +1.60%/+5.58% saved by holding). The trim still fires - ADR-0012 is mandatory and a -10 cell cannot veto it - but it fires small; net effect is a straight re-issue of the unfilled 09-02 30% at the live price. G1 inapplicable (no fresh breakout at cv>=80; ticks b/c fire regardless); HF-2 does not suppress (arm comes from the Gain_ATR leg, not T12_Progress, and the signal is not oversold-family). Action price is the anchor close - the NoTrade row prints a blank Entry_Price, so this is a market-on-open sell referenced to 5.95, not an invented limit. Stop UNCHANGED at 5.73: chandelier 2.0xATR = 5.673 is below the live stop and trails raise only. L8: executes at the 2026-09-04 open. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.56 | NO ACTION | 9.56 | 9.23 | 9.60 (+0.4%) | 9.76 (+2.0%) | 9.72 (+1.6%) | Holding China Construction Bank in full. The profit-take trigger technically fires but by the thinnest possible margin, the twelve-week view is still positive, and the signal remains a hold rather than a sell - there is no case here that beats the two names we are actually trimming. Armed on T12_prog 98.41 and tick (c) fires by just 0.036 (Est_12W 9.72 vs the 9.756 bar), the thinnest trigger in the book for a second consecutive session, on a NON-inverted +1.62% twelve-week view. Conviction is decaying but the label is still HOLD on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, a family whose BUY cell is the book's one +6 actionable read. Loses the >=3-slot competition on merit to 3968 (formal REDUCE) and 3988 (two ticks, genuine Gain_ATR arm). Stop unchanged 9.23 - chandelier 2.0xATR = 9.097 is below the live stop, trails raise only. Ledgered direction none / optional true so the grader prices what not trimming costs or saves. · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 233.40 | NO ACTION | 233.40 | 228.47 | 232.96 (-0.2%) | 230.03 (-1.4%) | 220.70 (-5.4%) | Holding Standard Chartered untouched. The position shows a 'profit-armed' flag but there is essentially no profit to take - it is up only 2.1% - and the flag is an artifact of a twelve-week target that sits below our own. Conviction is rising, not falling. HF-2 false arm: T12_Progress 105.75% is produced by an INVERTED 12-week target (220.70, below both the 233.40 close and the 228.63 cost), not by a winner nearing objective; the position is +2.09% with Gain_ATR 1.02. HF-2 conditions precisely on an oversold/bounce-family signal (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D) with an inverted 12wk, so PROFIT_ARMED and the whole fire rule are SUPPRESSED - second consecutive session. HF-6 independently holds it: no SELL label, conviction rising, no second Exit_Warning, stop intact. Stale overlay override ('hold unless below the recorded stop') holds - close 233.40 vs stop 228.47. Stop unchanged 228.47 - chandelier 2.0xATR = 224.02 would LOWER it, and trails raise only. Valuation MoS_FV -7.40 is unusable on an NA_CCY row and amplify-only in any case, so it originates nothing. · news |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 163.50 | BUY-STOP | 164.42 | 157.72 | 162.59 (-1.1%) | 162.35 (-1.3%) | 160.07 (-2.6%) | HSBC prints the strongest bullish signal in the book but we are not buying it yet. The setup has only appeared once - our rule needs it to hold for two sessions - and both of the model's own forward estimates point below the entry price we would pay, which is the pattern that has burned this book before. Conviction is building fast -> so this is the name to watch. TRIPLE-blocked: (i) the ANTICIPATE slot requires BUY - ANTICIPATE in >=2 of the last 3 snapshots and 0005 has ONE (WATCH 40 -> WATCH 62 -> ANTICIPATE 83); (ii) HF-3's inversion extension fails - Est_12W 160.07 < 163.50 close (-2.10%), and HF-3 explicitly extends the non-inverted-12wk gate to the anticipate slot; (iii) HF-4 fires - Est_1W 162.59 < Entry_Price 164.42, the LOW-QUALITY-ENTRY signature that preceded 2888's -2.2% day-one fill on 07-17. RE-ARM: a second ANTICIPATE print AND a non-inverted Est_12W. Note no_chase_queue is running [cost] at n=7 / +4.97% wh_1w, so the cost of withholding is being tracked. · news |
| 0966 | China Taiping Insurance | 22.00 | NO ACTION | 22.38 | 20.13 | 21.96 (-1.9%) | 21.69 (-3.1%) | 20.88 (-6.7%) | China Taiping screens as the only genuinely cheap stock in this book, but we are not buying it: it fails our balance-sheet quality screen, and the model's own twelve-week forecast sits 5% BELOW today's price - a cheap stock the model expects to fall is not a bargain. QUADRUPLE-blocked: below the 65 floor on raw conviction 64; Quality_Pass = False (F-Score 5) hard-blocks it as a NEW ENTRY; Est_12W 20.88 is 5.09% below the 22.00 close so HF-3 rejects the inversion outright; Est_1W 21.96 < Entry_Price 22.38 so HF-4 fires. val_adj would be +5 (UNDERVALUED, MoS_FV +0.786, halved for the quality failure) taking adj conviction to 69, ABOVE the floor - so it is the quality gate and HF-3, not the floor, that stop it. The four-session whipsaw AVOID 72 -> BUY 64 -> WATCH 61 -> BUY 64 is itself a stability failure. · news |
| 1299 | AIA Group | 77.30 | NO ACTION | 77.02 | 72.48 | 77.28 (+0.3%) | 77.45 (+0.6%) | 79.63 (+3.4%) | AIA is the cleanest buy candidate this book has produced in weeks - it is the only name whose one-week AND twelve-week forecasts both point above the entry price, clearing both of the traps that have blocked every other candidate - but its conviction score is 58 against our 65 threshold, so we wait. This is the name to promote the moment it strengthens. Adj 58 (val_adj 0 on NA_CCY, no actionable cell for ContinuationLiteUp), 7 points short of the floor. Notable because it passes BOTH book-specific entry gates: Est_12W 79.63 > 77.30 close (+3.01%, non-inverted -> HF-3 clear) and Est_1W 77.28 > Entry_Price 77.02 (-> HF-4 clear). It also broke a three-session NO TRADE cv0 run. With no_chase_queue running [cost] at n=7 / +4.97% wh_1w and queue_expiry [cost] at n=5 / +8.68% wh_4w, the counterfactuals say this book's problem is now un-taken buys, not un-taken sells. WATCH for conviction >= 65. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
26 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
3.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.