Recommendations
0 to acquire · 2 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 2888 | STANCHART | 242.60 | SELL 26.7% | 242.60 | 233.48 | 240.31 (-0.9%) | 236.23 (-2.6%) | 235.56 (-2.9%) | Standard Chartered has run to a fresh 52-week high and is now 3.1 ATR above our cost, up 6.1%, with the model's own twelve-week view sitting 2.9% BELOW today's price - the shares have reached where the model thinks they are going, and momentum is diverging from price. We bank a quarter of the position at the high and let the rest run behind a raised stop, into a Fed and HKMA rate decision on 17 September that sets Hong Kong bank margins. Operational: profit-take armed on Gain_ATR 3.06 (crossed 3.0 today from 2.48, so HF-2 suppression lifts) + T12_Progress 102.99; fires on tick (c) alone, Est_12W 235.56 = -2.90% vs close. RSI_DIV present but G1-downgraded to a trail-raise on a fresh BreakoutUp_52W at cv92; tick (b) does not fire, conviction ROSE. profit_take_1 30% -> -> board lot 50 -> 4.5-lot tie rounded DOWN to 200 (26.7%) in deference to the optional_trim counterfactual n=86 median +5.96% wh_4w [saved]. Stop RAISED 232.73 -> 233.48 (2.0x ATR chandelier). val_adj 0 (NA_CCY, MoS unusable), bias 0 (no BreakoutUp_52W|sell cell). SEPARATELY: tonight's STRONG BUY - ADD at Buy_Rank 1 (buy-stop 242.06) is REJECTED on HF-4 - Est_1W 240.31, Est_4W 236.23 and Est_12W 235.56 are all BELOW the entry, the same LOW_QUALITY_ENTRY signature flagged on this ticker 07-16 that realised -2.2% next session. · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 5.91 | SELL 20% | 5.92 | 5.79 | 5.94 (+0.4%) | 5.94 (+0.4%) | 5.90 (-0.3%) | Bank of China is our best-performing holding, up 8.7% and 3.3 ATR above cost - the largest gain in the book - and it has now reached the model's twelve-week price objective. We take a fifth of the position off at the top of the range and keep four-fifths running in what is still a clean uptrend, ahead of the 17 September Fed and HKMA decisions. This is the thinnest of tonight's two trims and we say so: the one-week and four-week views are both still positive. Operational: armed on Gain_ATR 3.32 (highest in book) + T12_Progress 100.25 - the most genuine arm in the sleeve. Fires on tick (c) alone and only by -0.25% (Est_12W 5.90 vs close 5.915) while Est_1W and Est_4W are both +0.42%; tick (b) does not fire, cv ROSE. Ships because ADR-0012 forbids rendering a fired profit-take as optional prose, not because the tick is strong. profit_take_1 30% -> -> board lot 1,000 -> exact 1.5-lot tie rounded DOWN to 1,000 (20%). Stop HELD 5.79 by ratchet - model stop 5.62 and chandelier 5.63 are both lower and a stop is never walked down on a winner. val_adj 0 (NA_CCY), bias 0 (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell n=11 hit_1w 0.50, actionable neutral). · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.61 | NO ACTION | 9.61 | 9.37 | 9.60 (-0.1%) | 9.75 (+1.5%) | 9.76 (+1.6%) | China Construction Bank is up 4.5% and near the model's twelve-week objective, but conviction in it is still RISING and the twelve-week view remains above today's price - so there is no real deterioration to act on. We were also unable to size a sensible trim: the smallest tradeable block would have cut half the position, far more than the discipline calls for, so we hold the full line and raise nothing. Operational: profit-take armed genuinely (T12_Progress 98.46 on a NON-inverted Est_12W +1.56%), Gain_ATR 1.74 (lowest in book). Tick (c) technically fires but clears its threshold by only 0.43% (9.76 vs the 9.8022 bar) and cv is rising. DEFERRED ON LOT GRANULARITY, NOT ON SIGNAL: 30% = against a 1,000-share board lot, so the minimum expressible cut is 50% of the line - a profit_take_2 tier delivered by rounding. Stop HELD 9.37 (model 9.14 and chandelier 9.14 both lower; ratchet). Filed under systemic finding 2. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 7.89 | NO ACTION | 7.89 | 7.61 | 7.88 (-0.1%) | 7.97 (+1.0%) | 7.93 (+0.5%) | Bank of Communications is up 5.2% with the twelve-week view still above today's price and conviction climbing sharply. We already cut this line by 40% yesterday, and the smallest tradeable block tonight would have removed two-thirds of what is left - a far heavier cut than the signal justifies. We hold and keep the stop where it is. Operational: armed on a NON-inverted Est_12W +0.51% with T12_Progress 99.50, Gain_ATR 2.21; tick (c) fires but cv ROSE. DEFERRED ON LOT GRANULARITY: 30% = against a 1,000-share board lot = 66.7% minimum cut, the worst re-tiering in the book, on top of yesterday's 40%-effective trim. Stop HELD 7.61 (ratchet; model 7.54 and chandelier 7.536 both lower). Filed under systemic finding 2. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 51.85 | NO ACTION | 51.85 | 50.88 | 51.68 (-0.3%) | 52.03 (+0.3%) | 51.70 (-0.3%) | China Merchants Bank is up 6.6% and completely dormant tonight - the price barely moved, conviction is flat, no warning flag fired, and the shares sit two ATR clear of the stop. The apparent 'at target' reading is an artifact of the model's twelve-week estimate drifting a fraction below the current price, not a real signal to sell, so we hold the full line. Operational: HF-2 SUPPRESSED - Est_12W 51.70 is inverted -0.29% vs close 51.85 AND Gain_ATR 2.83 < 3.0, so the arm rests entirely on T12_Progress 100.29, which IS the inversion artifact. Requires an independent bearish basis before any profit-take; none exists (cv flat, no other Exit_Warning, close 2.0 ATR above stop). Stop HELD 50.88 (model 49.59 and chandelier 49.585 both lower; ratchet). · news |
| 0005 | HSBC HDGS(USD0.50) HK O'SEAS | 166.00 | WATCH | 166.00 | 165.30 | 166.06 (+0.0%) | 164.85 (-0.7%) | 165.98 (-0.0%) | HSBC's buy signal came back tonight and on the raw score it would qualify - but the model's own forward estimates undercut it: the four-week and twelve-week views both sit at or below today's price, so the setup promises no upside to buy into. The proposed protective stop is also less than half a percent below the entry on a stock that moves 1.4% a day, which would almost certainly stop us out on noise. We stay out ahead of next week's Fed and HKMA decisions. Operational: BUY cv68 + FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy bias +4 = adj 72, clears the >=65 floor. REJECTED on three counts - HF-3 (Est_12W/Target_12Week 165.98 vs close 166.00, inverted); HF-4 (Est_4W 164.85 below the 166.00 market entry, estimation contradicting conviction); stop 165.30 at 0.30 ATR below entry on a 2.33-ATR name. Trail unstable ->. Event Horizon stance tighten-trail into the 16-17 Sep FOMC/HKMA pair. RE-ARM TRIGGER: non-inverted Est_12W plus a stop >= 1.0 ATR below entry. · news |
| 0966 | China Taiping Insurance | 21.50 | WATCH | 21.50 | 21.16 | 21.49 (-0.0%) | 20.92 (-2.7%) | 20.49 (-4.7%) | China Taiping remains the only genuinely cheap name in this book on our valuation work, and it firmed today, but the model still will not give it a buy label and its twelve-week view sits 4.7% BELOW the current price. A cheap valuation attached to a forward view that points down is not an entry. It stays on the watch list. Operational: WATCH cv57 (up from 46), adj 62 after val_adj +5 (UNDERVALUED MoS +0.785, halved for Quality_Pass False) - still short of the >=65 floor, and HF-3 blocks it independently on the inverted Est_12W 20.49 vs close 21.50. Re-arm needs a bullish actionable label AND a non-inverted twelve-week view. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
37 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
5.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.