Recommendations
0 to acquire · 3 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.89 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @9.91 lapsed — closed 9.89 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. China Construction Bank closed at its 52-week high with the strongest buy signal in the book, and we add one lot only if it breaks through that high - a buy-stop that fills on strength, not a chase. The model's four- and twelve-week views sit above the entry and the one-week view is essentially flat, so the layers agree; the order is kept to one lot and dies before the Fed decision because the signal has whipsawed and the name carries RSI divergence. OPERATIONAL: STRONG BUY - ADD cv97 (trail ->, Buy_Rank 1, 77.96, Trend 93 / Momentum 68, Mostly_Aligned, Regime Trending, close 9.89 vs High_52W 9.90, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.09 (not extended). Entry range 9.854-9.966 (Entry_Price 9.91 +-0.25xATR 0.2239). HF-4 DE-MINIMIS per HF-P14 (Est_1W 9.89 vs 9.91 = 0.20% / 0.09 ATR) -> agreeing, no demote. HF-3 passes (Est_12W +0.91% vs close). Volume: 77.96% x = 1,559 -> nearest-lot; HF-P55 lower lot because this reverses our own 09-11 SELL within one session ->, cost HK (0.58% of). Stop 9.46 (model; carried 9.37, chandelier 9.442) = 2.01 ATR risk, HKValuation NA_CCY -> val_adj 0, x1.0; ADD so quality gate n/a. No MomentumContinuation_Up|buy cell -> bias 0. COUNTER-CASE: RSI 69.9 + RSI_DIV, conviction oscillation, 0939 named on pre-Fed 09-16 / FOMC+HKMA 09-17 / LPR 09-21 (queue-below); expiry shortened from 09-17 to 09-16 (last pre-Fed session). Cross-book: parent hk declined a cv100 0939 add tonight. News snippet quoting HKdiscarded (L4). · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 246.60 | SELL 20% | 246.60 | 236.73 | 245.82 (-0.3%) | 241.16 (-2.2%) | 244.31 (-0.9%) | Standard Chartered is almost 8% above our cost and, for a third straight session, every model horizon - one, four and twelve weeks - sits below today's price, so we bank a small slice ahead of the Fed decision and the Hong Kong rate follow on 17 September. The breakout signal is strong, which is why this is the minimum trim and keep running behind a raised stop. OPERATIONAL: BreakoutUp_20D STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 (trail ->, Exit_Warning PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 3.94 (genuine arm), +7.86%. FIRED tick (c) only: Target_12Week 244.31 < 1.02xClose and the inversion HK = 0.502 ATR clears the 0.5-ATR materiality line (HF-P66, promoted) by a hair; G1-softened does not protect (c); G3 does not protect (12wk negative). 1 tick -> 30%. HF-P54 ORIGINATION WEAKENED (engine flipped HOLD cv61 -> STRONG BUY-ADD cv90) -> supersede at lower tier 20% = ( of 50). SUPERSEDES the unexecuted 09-11 SELL (invalid token market_next_open); does not stack. Proceeds HKrealised +HKvs cost 228.63. Stop RAISED 233.48 -> 236.73 (model; chandelier 237.47), cushion 2.16 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. BreakoutUp_20D|sell n=1 report-only -> bias 0. Est 1wk -0.32% / 4wk -2.21% / 12wk -0.93%. COUNTER: engine bullish cv90, marginal tick, HF-P64 over-trim record -> lower tier. Cross-book: parent hk ADDS @245.87 tonight. · news |
| 3328 | Bank of Communications | 8.16 | SELL 40% | 8.16 | 7.77 | 8.11 (-0.6%) | 8.25 (+1.1%) | 8.20 (+0.5%) | Bank of Communications printed another 52-week high, but its buy conviction collapsed from in one session and momentum is diverging at the most overbought reading in the book (RSI 73.6), so we sell back the lot added this morning at a small gain and keep the original-share line running behind a raised stop. The four- and twelve-week views are still mildly positive, which is why this returns the position to its pre-add size rather than cutting deeper. OPERATIONAL: MomentumContinuation_Up [BUY] HOLD cv59 (trail ->, Exit_Warning RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED, close 8.16 = High_52W, Entry_Distance_ATR -0.29, Trend 100. Live cost 7.728 after the 09-14 fill (scan row shows stale 7.50/ - race) -> Gain_ATR 2.53; arm from T12_Progress 99.51 on a NON-inverted Target_12Week (8.20 > 8.16) -> genuine per HF-P45, not suppressed. FIRED 2 genuine ticks: (a) RSI_DIV not G1-downgraded (cv59 < 80); (b) conviction -31. Tick (c) not fired. profit_take_2 50% x = 1,250 -> nearest-lot; HF-P55 lower tier 30% = -> also 1,000. -> (40%), remaining 1,500. Proceeds HKrealised +HKvs avg 7.728 (the 8.07 add round-trips ~+1.1%). Stop RAISED 7.75 -> 7.77 (model; chandelier 7.818), cushion 2.28 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. MomentumContinuation_Up|sell n=1 report-only -> 0. Est 1wk -0.61% / 4wk +1.10% / 12wk +0.49%. COUNTER: HF-P64 names 3328 as the book's clearest over-trim; disclosed - tonight's basis is two genuine ticks, not tick (c). · news |
| 3988 | Bank of China | 6.09 | SELL 20% | 6.08 | 5.83 | 6.11 (+0.4%) | 6.07 (-0.2%) | 6.07 (-0.2%) | Bank of China is our biggest winner at nearly 12% above cost and the most stretched name in the book, and tonight it added a momentum-divergence warning while conviction slipped, so we bank the minimum one-fifth and let run behind a raised stop. The model sees roughly flat prices over one to twelve weeks, so there is little forward reward being given up. OPERATIONAL: FailedBreakdown_Up_20D [WATCH] HOLD cv50 (trail ->, Exit_Warning RSI_DIV,PROFIT_ARMED (RSI_DIV new), RSI 70.90, VWAP +5.34%, Gain_ATR 4.90. FIRED tick (a) RSI_DIV (no G1 protection - FailedBreakdown family, cv50); tick (c) inversion 0.015 = 0.11 ATR below materiality, not counted; (b) -11 no. 1 tick -> 30% x = = 1. tie, no risk leg -> round DOWN (HF-P25) -> (20%). HF-P54 ORIGINATION STRONGER (09-11 basis was tick (c) alone) -> re-issue same size, repriced to live anchor; SUPERSEDES the unexecuted 09-11 SELL @6.045 (invalid token market_next_open); does not stack. Proceeds HKrealised +HKStop RAISED 5.79 -> 5.83 (model; chandelier 5.822), cushion 1.94 ATR. Valuation NA_CCY -> 0. Scorecard FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell -5 (n=18, hit_1w 0.25) -> adj 45; argues against the card and is phantom-contaminated per HF-P63 - disclosed. Est 1wk +0.41% / 4wk -0.25% / 12wk -0.25%. · news |
| 0939 | CCB - H SHS | 9.89 | HOLD 2,000 | 9.89 | 9.46 | 9.89 (+0.0%) | 10.03 (+1.4%) | 9.98 (+0.9%) | Armed profit position (Gain_ATR 3.08) with no valid deterioration tick: RSI_DIV is G1-downgraded on a fresh MomentumContinuation_Up cv97, and the 12-week view sits above the close. Trail-raise stop 9.37 -> 9.46 instead of a trim; the add runs as a separate buy-stop card. · news |
| 3968 | China Merchants Bank | 52.75 | HOLD 1,500 | 52.75 | 50.88 | 52.54 (-0.4%) | 53.18 (+0.8%) | 52.61 (-0.3%) | Armed (Gain_ATR 3.59, +8.43%) with conviction rising; the only tick is a literal tick (c) whose inversion is 0.12 ATR, below the 0.5-ATR materiality line (HF-P66). Not fired -> hold, stop HELD 50.88 by ratchet (model 50.46 lower), cushion 1.64 ATR. · news |
| 2888 | STANCHART | 246.60 | HOLD | 245.86 | 236.73 | 245.82 (-0.0%) | 241.16 (-1.9%) | 244.31 (-0.6%) | STRONG BUY - ADD cv90 declined: all three model estimates sit below the 245.86 buy-stop (4wk -1.91%, 12wk -0.63%) - negative payoff asymmetry per HF-3/HF-P5; single print after 57/61 (the identical 09-09 cv92 print collapsed next session, HF-P55); a profit-take trim fired on the same row tonight. RE-ARM: Est_4W_Point >= Entry_Price AND a second consecutive BUY print. · news |
| 2388 | BOC Hong Kong Holdings | 53.65 | WATCH | 53.39 | 50.13 | 53.44 (+0.1%) | 53.93 (+1.0%) | 53.42 (+0.1%) | STRONG BUY cv84 (Buy_Rank 3, buy-stop 53.39, adj 83) HARD-BLOCKED by the quality gate on a new entry: Quality_Pass False, F-Score 4. HF-4 passes (Est_1W 53.44 >= entry); Est_12W 53.42 is 0.43% below close (inside the HF-P49 0.97 band). RE-ARM: Quality_Pass True on the fairvalue refresh due 09-15 AND a second BUY print. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
46 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
5.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.