Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | hklev book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Empty ADR-0014 book (HKD 2,000,000 seed cash, no positions). Both leveraged ETFs flipped from a bearish BreakdownDown_20D AVOID (07-13) to a fresh ReversalUp_Oversold [BUY] and cleared the 65 conviction floor for the first time in book history (7709 cv81 Buy_Rank 1, 7747 cv72) -- but both are falling knives, not buyable: Target_12Week sits BELOW close on both (7709 41.8 vs 65.20 ~-36%, 7747 54.32 vs 95.30 ~-43%), the flip is a single-session dead-cat off yesterday's -33%/-20% crashes (RSI still ~37, price far below every EMA), the model stops are unusable (7709 10.66, 7747 44.39), and the overlay de-risks into tonight's June CPI (no new leverage into the event). Note-B ACTIVE lesson: ReversalUp with negative 12wk = falling knife = not buyable. No holdings to dispose. Valuation-blind (NA_ETF). Counterfactuals show not-acting on these names saved a median -48.72% at 1wk. kept dry. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 65.20 | NO ACTION | 65.20 | 10.66 | n/a | 107.91 (+65.5%) | 41.80 (-35.9%) | Flipped BreakdownDown_20D [SELL] -> ReversalUp_Oversold [BUY], conv, Buy_Rank 1 -- the closest this book has ever come to a buy (+16 over the 65 floor) after a +8.9% bounce (59..20) off the -33% 07-13 crash. DECLINED as a falling knife: (a) note-B -- ReversalUp with Target_12Week 41.8 ~36% BELOW close is the ACTIVE not-buyable pattern; (b) single-session bearish->bullish flip off a violent crash, RSI still 37 (oversold), price far below every EMA -- an oversold dead-cat, not a confirmed reversal (ACT-NOW no-flip-flop/L4); (c) stop 10.66 (~52W low, ~84% below entry) defines no real risk; (d) overlay de-risks into tonight's June CPI -- buying a 2x ETF here is leverage into the event. Target_Price 107.91 is the ATR reversal objective; the 12wk model projection is negative. Re-arm needs T12 to turn positive AND a second confirming bullish print (ideally PullbackBuy_VWAP), not a single-bar dead-cat. Standing close<101 exit override moot (no position). |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 95.30 | NO ACTION | 95.30 | 44.39 | n/a | 137.91 (+44.7%) | 54.32 (-43.0%) | Flipped BreakdownDown_20D [HOLD] -> ReversalUp_Oversold [BUY], conv, Buy_Rank 2, clearing the 65 floor (+7) after a +6.9% bounce (89..30) off the -20% 07-13 crash. DECLINED as a falling knife on the same grounds as 7709: Target_12Week 54.32 ~43% BELOW close (note-B not-buyable), a single-session flip off a violent crash with RSI still 38 and price far below every EMA (dead-cat), stop 44.39 (~53% below entry) defines no usable risk, and the CPI event-gate. Target_Price 137.91 is the ATR reversal objective; the 12wk model view stays deeply negative. Not buyable. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.