Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | hklev book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Empty ADR-0014 book (HKD 2,000,000 seed cash, no positions). Both leveraged ETFs decayed off yesterday's first-ever 65-floor clears: 7709 collapsed BUY cv81 -> WATCH cv58 (-23 pts, no longer a bullish actionable or above floor), 7747 flipped BUY cv72 -> AVOID FailedBreakout_Down_20D (bearish). Prices rose (+10.1%/+8.4%) but both signals weakened -- the single-session dead-cat bounces faded exactly as the 07-14 falling-knife thesis flagged (Target_12Week still below close on both: 7709 40.91 vs 71.78, 7747 58.88 vs 103.30). Buy pool empty, no holdings to dispose. Valuation-blind (NA_ETF). Overlay 10d stale, CPI event now passed. Not buying at cv81 yesterday avoided 2x leverage into a fading bounce. kept dry. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 71.78 | NO ACTION | 71.78 | 35.24 | n/a | 104.47 (+45.5%) | 40.91 (-43.0%) | Conviction COLLAPSED BUY cv81 (07-14) -> WATCH cv58 (-23 pts) even as price rose 65..78 (+10.1%) -- the model de-rated the bounce. Signal still ReversalUp_Oversold but action downgraded to WATCH (out of the buy pool) and now below the 65 floor. DECLINED / no longer a near-miss: Target_12Week 40.91 sits ~43% BELOW close (note-B falling knife -- ReversalUp + negative 12wk = not buyable), RSI still 39.98, price far below every EMA, and the signal is decaying not confirming (the 07-14 dead-cat thesis playing out). Target_Price 104.47 is the ATR reversal objective, not the 12wk view; stop 35.24 defines no usable risk. Re-arm needs T12 to turn positive vs close AND a second confirming bullish print (ideally PullbackBuy_VWAP). Standing close<101 exit override moot (no position; closed 71.78). |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 103.30 | NO ACTION | 103.30 | 103.30 | n/a | n/a | 58.88 (-43.0%) | Flipped back BUY cv72 ReversalUp_Oversold (07-14) -> AVOID cv73 FailedBreakout_Down_20D (bearish family) even as price rose 95..30 (+8.4%) -- the one-session dead-cat faded exactly as flagged. Out of the buy pool (bearish AVOID). Target_12Week 58.88 ~43% BELOW close, RSI 40.52. Not buyable. Same re-arm bar as 7709 (positive T12 + confirming bullish print). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.