Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | AI - HK Leveraged ETFs | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | NO ACTION at the 2026-07-20 settled close. Both leveraged ETFs bounced hard off last week's capitulation (7709 +17.4% to 52.58, 7747 +15.8% to 77.80) and 7709 flipped back to a bullish ReversalUp_Oversold BUY at conviction 71 with the book's top buy rank - only the second time in this book's history that a name has cleared the 65 acquire floor. It is still declined, because it is the same one-bar dead-cat setup the book's playbook was written to refuse: the 12-week forward view (29.97) sits ~43% BELOW the entry price, the model stop (20.42) is 61% below entry so there is no usable risk control on a 2x leveraged instrument, the pillar consensus underneath the bullish label reads Consolidation_Bearish with price below every moving average, and SK Hynix reports Q2 in two sessions with a +-12% band on the underlying - roughly +-24% on this ETF. The book declined a stronger print (cv81 @65.20) on 07-14 and was right by -31.3% within three sessions. Nothing held, so nothing to dispose. Valuation blind (all NA_ETF). HKD 2,000,000 intact - 13th consecutive session at full cash. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 52.58 | NO ACTION | 52.58 | 20.42 | n/a | 90.64 (+72.4%) | 29.97 (-43.0%) | The 2x Hynix ETF turned bullish again - ReversalUp_Oversold BUY, conviction 71, top-ranked buy candidate, closing +17.4% at 52.58 on heavy volume - and it clears the 65 conviction floor. We are still not buying it. The model's own 12-week view (29.97) is 43% below the price it wants us to pay, the suggested stop (20.42) is 61% below entry which is no risk control at all on a double-leveraged fund, and beneath the bullish label every pillar reads bearish with price under every moving average and 46% below its volume-weighted average. On top of that, SK Hynix - the single stock this ETF doubles - reports Q2 in two sessions with a plus/minus 12% expected move, which the ETF would roughly double. This is the same one-session bounce off a crash the book declined at an even higher conviction (81) on 07-14, and that decision was vindicated by a 31% decline over the following three sessions. Operational: fails HL-2 (T12 below close + single-bar flip, no second confirming print), HL-3 (stop -61.2% from entry = degenerate risk levels), HL-4 (rising conviction vs bearish pillar consensus Consolidation_Bearish) and L6/horizon (no new 2x leverage into the 07-22 Hynix print). Re-arm trigger: Target_12Week >= close AND a second confirming bullish print (ideally PullbackBuy_VWAP) AND a stop within a usable distance of entry - and not before the 07-22 earnings settles. Standing close<101 exit override moot (flat). |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 77.80 | NO ACTION | 77.80 | 77.80 | n/a | n/a | 44.35 (-43.0%) | The 2x Samsung ETF bounced 15.8% to 77.80 but the model still reads it as a failed breakdown to the downside - a bearish signal at conviction 76, which for a long-only book simply means do not open. Tellingly the bounce came on lower volume (34.3M) than the prior capitulation session (51.7M), the 12-week view (44.35) sits 43% below the price, and it remains below every moving average including the 200-day at 89.03. Operational: conviction 76 is conviction in a SELL, not a buy - the acquire floor screens bullish actionable labels only (HL-4). Entry equals stop at 77.80 (degenerate levels, HL-3). Re-arm: Target_12Week >= close AND a confirming bullish print. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.