Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | hklev book | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No action - the book stays fully in cash for a 16th straight session. Both 2x ETFs extended the post-Hynix bounce a second session (7709 +8.5% to 60.50, 7747 +7.6% to 95.00) and conviction ROSE on both (7709, 7747, yet the verdict is unchanged: both still print the bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D [SELL] label (no bullish actionable trigger, HL-4), the 12-week projection is still ~43% below price on both, and the model stop is still degenerate (entry = stop). Buy pool empty on bearish labels, dispose pool empty (no holdings), valuation blind (NA_ETF). Honest tension: the 07-20 declined ReversalUp_Oversold [BUY] @52.58 would now be marked +15.1% at 60.50 - the mirror of 07-14 where the same HL-2 discipline was right by -31% - logged as a live counter-example for the next learnings review. Empty ADR-0014 book (HKD 2,000,000 seed cash). Nothing pending for the 2026-07-24 open. |
| 7709 | XL2CSOPHYNIX | 60.50 | WATCH | 60.50 | 60.50 | n/a | n/a | 34.48 (-43.0%) | Stay out. The 2x SK Hynix ETF extended its post-print bounce a second session to close 60.50 (+8.5% from 55.76) and conviction rose to 75, but the label is still the bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D [SELL] - a rising conviction on a [SELL] label is confidence in a DOWN move, not a buy (HL-4), and paired with a 12-week projection (34.48) still ~43% below price it is a stronger avoid, not a softening one. Operational: entry = stop = 60.50 is degenerate, no risk-defined entry (HL-3); Target_Price blank; RSI 40.51, ATR 12.68; consensus Consolidation_Bearish. The 07-20 declined [BUY] @52.58 is now +15.1% here - a real miss, logged for the learnings review - but the print reverted to AVOID the next bar and never gave the second confirming print HL-2 requires, and its 20.42 stop was never usable. Re-arm: Target_12Week >= close AND a second confirming bullish print (ideally PullbackBuy_VWAP) AND a usable stop distance. Standing overlay close<101 full-exit override moot (flat). Next catalyst: SK Hynix Nasdaq ADR quiet-period expiry ~Aug 3-4. |
| 7747 | XL2CSOPSMSN | 95.00 | WATCH | 95.00 | 95.00 | n/a | n/a | 54.15 (-43.0%) | Stay out. The 2x Samsung ETF rose a 4th session to close 95.00 (+7.6% from 88.28) and reclaimed the EMA200 (95.00 vs ~89.09) - the one genuine technical improvement - but that is a watch item, not a trigger: the label is still bearish FailedBreakout_Down_20D [SELL] for a 4th session, conviction 72 is confidence in the direction not a bullish trigger (HL-4), and the 12-week projection (54.15) is still ~43% below price. Operational: entry = stop = 95.00 degenerate (HL-3), Target_Price blank; RSI 42.73, ATR 15.02; consensus Consolidation_Bearish. Re-arm: hold the EMA200 reclaim WITH a bullish actionable label AND Target_12Week >= close. Next direct catalyst: Samsung Electronics Q2 full divisional results 2026-07-30. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
22 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.