Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | XL2CSOPHYNIX | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declined, and the case against buying got stronger rather than weaker. 7709 rose 6.86% to 44.56 - a clean 1.95x match to SK Hynix's +3.51% in Seoul, so the tracker is honest - but it did so on HALF the volume that sold it yesterday (111.5M, -47.9%) and closed in the lower third of its range. More importantly the engine's label DETERIORATED after ten sessions: FailedBreakout_Down_20D [HOLD] became RallySell_BearTrend [SELL], a rally-into-a-bear-trend distribution setup and one of this book's reliable HK sell cells (~0.8+ hit rate), with conviction RISING into it. Under HL-4 a rising conviction on a breakdown-family label is a stronger avoid: the model is expressing high confidence in a DOWN move on a name that has just run +26.0% in three sessions. Long-only, the correct expression of that view is staying flat, which the book already is. Nothing held, so no sell can originate; the book stays 100% cash at HKOps: conviction 64 is 1 pt below the 65 floor, but the floor is moot - AVOID never enters the Step 5 buy pool ('Flat; bearish signal; do not open (long-only)'). HL-3 binds for a NEW reason and this is the run's key finding: the row printed the first non-degenerate stop in book history, and it is non-degenerate because it belongs to the other side - Stop_Price 47.95 sits 7.6% ABOVE Entry_Price 44.56 with Target_Price 27.10 39% BELOW close, i.e. a coherent SHORT structure emitted into long-only columns with Order_Type still 'Market'. There is still no usable LONG stop. Restate HL-3: 'stop != entry' is necessary but NOT sufficient; the stop must be strictly BELOW entry by a usable ATR multiple. HL-2 re-arm counter stays at ZERO (no bullish label to confirm); T12 leg inert - T12/Close clamp 0.570018, seventh consecutive session. Constructive note: ATR fell 5.05 -> 4.22, so a 2x ATR stop is now 19.0% of price vs 118.9% in early August and 24.2% yesterday - the first structural precondition to move in the book's favour since inception, though it opens nothing today. Structure: -13.7% vs EMA50 51.63, -14.6% vs EMA200 52.17 (both gaps narrowed from -19.7%/-20.2%); give-back level EMA20 39.08 (-12.3% away). Re-arm bar: bullish label (now requires REVERSING a SELL-family signal, a higher bar than reversing a bearish HOLD) + adj conv >=65 + a REAL ATR stop BELOW entry + a 2nd confirming bullish close on rising volume. Horizon: 7709 is tagged in SIX of the ten-day window's events - 09-10 TSMC, 09-11 Oracle + Korea 1-10 Sep semi exports (7709 is the band anchor), 09-14 US CPI (lands after the Friday HK close, so the book wears the full weekend gap), 09-16/17 coin-flip FOMC (~49.4% odds of a 25bp HIKE), 09-18 live BoJ hike naming 7709 the book's top carry-unwind casualty. Per L6/HLP-12, stage any first entry AFTER the FOMC/BoJ pair, not into it. |
| — | XL2CSOPSMSN | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declined. 7747 closed 78.42, up only 0.90%, and gave back its entire opening gap for a second consecutive session - it opened 80.00, reached 81.46, and finished at the 30th percentile of its range on the THINNEST volume of the window (4.78M, -56.7%). The standing near-miss of the last two sessions is gone: conviction COLLAPSED, a 19-point drop, as the trend pillar handed back its repair, leaving it 8 points BELOW the 65 acquire floor. The label is unchanged - AVOID on FailedBreakout_Down_20D for an eleventh straight session - which is a disqualification rather than a rank, so it never enters the buy pool at any score. Nothing held, so no sell can originate; the book stays 100% cash. Ops: HL-3 binding in its classic form - Stop_Price == Entry_Price == Close at 78.42 with a blank Target_Price, so no risk-defined long entry is constructible. HL-2 re-arm counter at ZERO; T12 leg inert (T12/Close clamp 0.570008, seventh session). Constructive note: ATR fell 7.42 -> 6.02, putting ATR-to-price at 7.7% and a 2x ATR stop at 15.4% of price - the tightest of the window and the tamer of the two instruments. Structurally still the cleaner name: +3.96% above EMA20 75.44 with its EMA5/10 reclaim intact, -11.0% vs EMA50 88.09, and EMA200 84.58 now only +7.9% away - the nearest genuine trend-repair objective in the book. Implied underlying ~+0.45% on Samsung (mandate check; Samsung's quote page still served 08-Sep data and could not be date-verified). Re-arm bar: bullish label + adj conv >=65 (needs +8) + a REAL ATR stop below entry + a 2nd confirming bullish close on rising volume. Horizon: 09-14 US CPI, 09-16/17 FOMC and 09-18 BoJ all land inside the window - stage any first entry after that pair. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.