Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | XL2CSOPHYNIX | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declined for a twelfth consecutive session, and today the one thing that had improved reversed. 7709 closed 44.10, -1.03%, after gapping down -3.32% to 43.08, rallying to 45.46 and settling mid-range (55th percentile) on the LIGHTEST volume of the six-session window (99.5M, -10.8%). The signal ROUND-TRIPPED: yesterday's RallySell_BearTrend [SELL] reverted to FailedBreakout_Down_20D [HOLD] in a single session on a -1% bar, with conviction easing (trend pillar handing back its one-day repair, volatility. Either way the label is bearish-family and the Action is AVOID - 'Flat; bearish signal (conv=60); do not open (long-only)' - so the name never enters the Step 5 buy pool and the 65 floor is moot (it also fails it by 5). News cuts the same way: SK Hynix closed -0.16% in Seoul after +3.51%, so the AI-memory thrust stalled, and the 2x wrapper still fell -1.03% - roughly 6.4x a near-flat underlying, the first mandate MISS of the window. Nothing held, so no sell can originate; the book stays 100% cash at HKOps: HL-3 binds again and in its CLASSIC degenerate form - yesterday's short-side risk block (Stop 47.95 above Entry 44.56, Target 27.10) has VANISHED and the row is back to Stop == Entry == Close 44.10 with a blank Target_Price. That instability is worse than either broken state alone and is this run's top ticket: the same flat AVOID mandate emitted a coherent short's risk structure on one bar and a no-op on the next. Restated bar stands: the stop must sit strictly BELOW entry by a usable ATR multiple. HL-2 re-arm counter stays at ZERO (no bullish label to confirm); the T12 leg remains unreachable - T12/Close prints 0.570068, an EIGHTH consecutive session pinned at 0.5700. Volatility compression HELD (ATR 4.22 -> 4.21, 9.5% of price; a 2x ATR stop is 19.1% of price vs 118.9% in early August) - second session at the tighter regime, still the only structural precondition to have improved since inception. Structure: +12.2% above EMA20 39.31, -13.9% vs EMA50 51.23, -15.3% vs EMA200 52.06 (both trend gaps widened back from -13.7%/-14.6%). Give-back level EMA20 39.31 (-10.8% away); trend objective EMA200 52.06 (+18.1%). RE-ARM: bullish label + adj conv >=65 + a REAL ATR stop BELOW entry + a 2nd confirming bullish close on RISING volume. Horizon: 7709 is tagged in six of the ten-day window's events - today's TSMC August revenue, 11-Sep Oracle Q1 FY2027 + Korea Customs 1-10 Sep semiconductor exports (7709 is the band anchor), 14-Sep US CPI, 16/17-Sep FOMC (a coin flip on a 25bp HIKE) and 18-Sep BoJ (a live hike, with 7709 named the book's top yen-carry-unwind casualty). Per L6/HLP-12, stage any first entry AFTER the FOMC/BoJ pair, not into it. |
| — | XL2CSOPSMSN | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Declined. 7747 closed 76.30, -2.70%, and this was the session that broke its bull residue. It gapped down -4.57% to 74.84, recovered to 78.60, and closed at the 45th percentile of range - a third consecutive day of surrendering the intraday high - while volume ROSE +19.5% to 5.71M, so unlike the prior two sessions the selling had participation. Conviction fell again, now 26 points below the 76 it printed two sessions ago, with the momentum pillar collapsing; that is 15 points BELOW the 65 acquire floor. It also lost the VWAP reclaim it had held for three sessions (VWAP_Distance +1.31% -> -1.77%) and RSI slipped back under 50 to 48.89. The label is unchanged - AVOID on FailedBreakout_Down_20D for a twelfth straight session - which is a disqualification rather than a rank, so no score admits it to the buy pool. Nothing held, so no sell can originate; the book stays 100% cash. Ops: HL-3 binding in classic form for the twelfth session - Stop == Entry == Close at 76.30 with a blank Target_Price, so no risk-defined long entry is constructible. HL-2 re-arm counter at ZERO; T12 leg inert (T12/Close 0.570014, eighth session). Volatility compression held (ATR 6.02 -> 5.95, 7.8% of price; 2x ATR stop = 15.6%) - still the tamer instrument. What survives of the bull case has thinned to almost nothing: it is +1.1% above EMA20 75.46 (was +4.0%) with the EMA5/10 stack barely intact, -12.9% vs EMA50 87.60, and EMA200 84.50 is +10.7% away (was +7.9%). Samsung could not be date-verified today (quote page HTTP 503; bounded search returned only undated intraday marks), so no implied-underlying check is claimed rather than inferred. RE-ARM: bullish label + adj conv >=65 (needs +15) + a REAL ATR stop below entry + a 2nd confirming bullish close on rising volume. Horizon: 14-Sep US CPI, 16/17-Sep FOMC and 18-Sep BoJ all land inside the window - stage any first entry after that pair. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.