Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| — | XL2CSOPHYNIX | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Staying out of the Hynix 2x tracker. The fund fell 2.8% to 42.88 as SK Hynix itself dropped 2.2% in Seoul - the AI-memory bid that drove the early-September rally has now reversed across three sessions - and although the fund bounced off its low to close near the session high, it did so on the lightest volume of the past six sessions, which is a supply vacuum rather than buyers stepping in. The model's confidence in this setup is its lowest of the window and its own twelve-week view still sits 43% below today's price, so there is no forward case to buy into; with US inflation data landing tonight after the Hong Kong close and both a Fed and a Bank of Japan decision next week, the patient posture is to stay in cash and let the setup prove itself. OPERATIONAL: adjusted conviction 49 (49 raw + 0 val_adj [NA_ETF, valuation blind] + 0 scorecard bias [0 graded]) vs the 65 acquire floor - short 16, and the window low for this name; Action is WATCH so it never enters the buy pool. NOTABLE AND NEW: the row printed the book's FIRST coherent long-side risk block - Entry 42.88 / Stop 40.50 (BELOW entry) / Target 51.36, risk 0.56x ATR vs reward 2.00x ATR = 3.56:1 - ending eight of nine sessions of the degenerate Stop == Entry == Close pattern. It is still vetoed four ways: (1) WATCH is not a buy label; (2) floor miss of 16 with the momentum pillar collapsing; (3) HL-2 - Target_12Week 24.44 is 43.0% BELOW close, the re-arm bar needs T12 >= close plus a 2nd confirming bullish print and this is print one of one; (4) HL-3's restated 2-bar stability leg unmet, and the stop itself is pinned to the exact session low (40.50) rather than an ATR level - 0.56x ATR on a 9.9%-ATR instrument sits inside one average bar (systemic finding 2). L1 additionally discounts the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D chase family (~0.25 hit, ~60% stop-first). RE-ARM TRIGGER: bullish label reprinting for a 2nd consecutive bar + adj conv >= 65 (+16 needed) + a stop derived from an ATR multiple (>= 1.0x) BELOW entry, stable across 2 bars + Target_12Week >= close (currently impossible - clamped at 0.5700x, systemic finding 1) + a confirming close on RISING volume. Per L6/HLP-12 stage no first entry until after the 17-Sep FOMC / 18-Sep BoJ pair. |
| — | XL2CSOPSMSN | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Staying out of the Samsung 2x tracker, which is the weakest it has looked all window. The fund fell 4.2% to 73.08 after Samsung Electronics dropped 3.5% in Seoul, and in doing so it closed below its 5-, 10- and 20-day average prices - the last remaining piece of its uptrend - while every component of the model's assessment (trend, momentum and volatility) deteriorated together. Model confidence has fallen by more than half in three sessions, the signal family has hardened from 'hold' to 'exit', and the model publishes no usable stop-loss level for the name, so there is no way to define what we would be risking. Nothing here is buyable and the book owns none of it. OPERATIONAL: adjusted conviction 37 (37 raw + 0 val_adj [NA_ETF] + 0 scorecard bias) vs the 65 floor - short 28, the widest gap of the window and a -39 point slide in three sessions from cv76. Pillars trend, momentum, volatility (book low). Close 73.08 is below EMA5 74.88 / EMA10 74.47 / EMA20 75.41 (-3.10%), -16.1% vs EMA50 87.11, with EMA200 84.40 now +15.5% away; VWAP distance -5.63% (2nd session below), RSI 46.55. Signal_Rationale family tag escalated [HOLD] -> [EXIT] while the printed Action stayed AVOID - a 13th straight session of disqualification, not a rank. HL-3 binds in classic form: Stop == Entry == Close 73.08 with a blank Target_Price, so no risk-defined long entry is constructible. HL-2's T12 leg also fails: Target_12Week 41.66 is 43.0% below close and prints the same 0.5700x clamp as 7709 for a 9th session (systemic finding 1). CONSTRUCTIVE-BUT-INSUFFICIENT: ATR 6.36 = 8.7% of price keeps a 2x ATR stop at 17.4% of price vs 50.3% in early August - third session of the tighter regime. RE-ARM TRIGGER: bullish label + adj conv >= 65 (+28 needed) + a real ATR-derived stop below entry printed stably across 2 bars + Target_12Week >= close + reclaim of EMA20 75.41 on rising volume. Stage nothing before the 17-Sep FOMC / 18-Sep BoJ pair (L6/HLP-12). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
0 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one.
0.000 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
50 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.