AI · HK Leveraged ETFs — Track record
Every elapsed decision is graded against what prices actually did — hit-rates and errors per signal family, plus the cost of the decisions this book chose not to take.
Scorecard
Hit-rates per signal family.
No graded cells yet.
Counterfactuals Counterfactuals grade decisions that were NOT executed — expired queues, no-chase rules, untaken optional trims — against what the market then did. They are kept strictly separate from the calibration cells above.
What the decisions we didn't take would have done.
- Optional trims not taken — 22 cases , median would-have 1W move -21.4% → verdict: cost
Counterfactuals are advisory evidence for the book's learnings reviews — never blended into the calibration cells.