HK Semiconductors — End-of-Day Verdict
1 ACQUIRE (0992 ADD 12,000 @ HKGTC buy-stop, pending 08-06 open, expires 08-10); DISPOSE none; trail raised 23.04 -> 23.60
Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 26.28 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @26.73 lapsed — closed 26.28 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Lenovo broke out of its 20-day range on heavy volume, closing +4.5% at HK (+5.8% adjusting for today's HKdividend) with the strongest trend reading in the book and the only positive 12-week forward among its twelve holdings. The AI-server business is the engine behind it - a US$21bn pipeline and infrastructure revenue up 32% year on year - while the shares still trade below our DCF anchor of HK, so the move is not yet stretched against intrinsic worth. We are adding to an existing winner rather than chasing something new, and only on further strength: the order is a buy-stop above today's close, so it fills only if the breakout follows through. The known risk is rising memory costs squeezing PC margins, which is why the order is set to lapse before the 13 August results rather than run into them. Operationally: entry 26.73 is the anchor row's live Entry_Price (provenance clean, no carried-forward limit; queue sweep found zero open orders). Size = 39.22% x 32,000 = 12,550, size_mod 1.00x (MoS_FV -0.39 sits in the -1..0 band), lot-rounded down to 12,000 (HK 2,000-share board lot) = HKfunded from. max_position_pct 60% x NAV 2,089,600 = 1,253,760 vs existing exposure 840,960 -> headroom 412,800, cap not binding; post-fill = 56.3% of NAV, blended cost 24.366. Adjusted conviction 79 - 2 (val_adj) + 0 (no BreakoutUp_20D scorecard cell) = 77 vs the 65 floor. Entry_Distance_ATR +0.27 means the trigger is 1.71% ABOVE the close, so the no-chase test passes by construction and HS-5's GTC mechanism is the enforcement. L1's breakout-chase discount was applied as a stop order + 1.00x sizing + round-down rather than a numeric haircut, and is overruled on the merits because this is an ADD to a +11.9% position on a 4-session conviction ramp ->. Risk line is the RAISED trail 23.60, NOT the model's printed Stop_Price 20.24 - adopting that would lower the trail, which HS-3a forbids. Estimates use f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.157 degenerate); the 1wk 30.62 is FLAGGED AS NOT CREDIBLE (Target_Price is +7.87x ATR out, so the interpolation lands 11.6% above the 52W high and above the scan's own Est_High 28.99 - Systemic #1) - treat Est_Low 25.38 / Est_High 28.99 as the honest near-term band. No DCF annotation: 12wk 37.34 < DCF 43.47. Expiry 2026-08-10 = anchor + 3 trading sessions, deliberately closing the order three sessions before the 08-13 Q1 FY27 print (L6 spirit); if unfilled it is withdrawn with a reconcile line, not rolled. Catalyst-aware: at the 08-06 open the print is exactly 5 trading days out, which is a no-pre-trim/hold-and-trail rule, not a buy block - hence the trail was raised above cost BEFORE the add. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.