Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 25.16 | HOLD | 25.16 | 23.04 | 26.13 (+3.9%) | 28.40 (+12.9%) | 34.55 (+37.3%) | Lenovo remains a hold, and the case got stronger. The position is up 7.2% on a bullish setup whose conviction has now risen three sessions running to, the shares sit 9% clear of our trailing stop, and the 12-week view improved to +37% - the only positive forward anywhere in this book. Valuation is neutral (fair value: no discount, no excess), so nothing argues for taking profit here. Operationally: not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 1.04 vs 3.0; T12 progress 72.8% vs 90) so ADR-0012 has no fire rule to evaluate; the RSI_DIV warning is NOT elevated because MoS_FV -0.39 is far from the -3 that CLAUDE.md Sec9c requires, and G1/G3 independently forbid trimming a strengthening winner on divergence alone. Trail HELD at 23.04 - not lowered to the model's drifted Stop_Price 21.92 (HS-3a), and not raised because the position is not armed and 23.04 is already 1.31x ATR below the close, tighter than a 2x-ATR chandelier. Ex-dividend HKon 08-05 marks the reference down ~1.3% (mechanical, no stop threat). From the 08-06 EOD the 08-13 Q1 FY27 earnings enters the <=5-session catalyst window: default hold/trail through the print, no pre-trim. · news |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 57.80 | NO ACTION | 57.80 | — | n/a | n/a | 38.59 (-33.2%) | Sunny Optical is still the cheapest thing in this book and we are still not buying it. Our valuation work puts fair value near HKagainst a HKprice - a real ~19% discount on a business that passes our quality screen, and the market's own consensus target sits at HKBut the price still trades 12% below its 200-day average, the 12-week model view is -33%, and this session the signal actually got worse rather than better. A cheap stock in a confirmed downtrend is a value trap until the tape turns; we buy the turn, not the discount. Valuation never originates a buy (CLAUDE.md Sec9) - recorded as a declined-buy counterfactual so the scorer prices what waiting costs or saves. Re-arm trigger unchanged: a bullish-family label (Pullback/Reversal) PLUS a reclaim of EMA200 ~65.58. Note the label degraded RallySell_BearTrend -> FailedBreakout_Down_20D while bearish conviction rose. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.