Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 24.74 | HOLD | 24.74 | 23.04 | 25.73 (+4.0%) | 28.05 (+13.4%) | 33.26 (+34.4%) | Lenovo stays a hold: the position is up 5.4% on a still-bullish setup whose conviction is recovering -> 66), the shares trade 7% above our trailing stop, and the 12-week view of HKis the only positive forward anywhere in this book - and it sits comfortably below the HKDCF anchor, so the upside is not borrowed from optimistic growth assumptions. Fair value is neutral (FAIR_VALUE, margin of safety -0.39), which neither adds to nor detracts from the case. An early RSI-divergence warning is on the row, but a trim needs a far more extreme valuation reading to be elevated into a sell reason, and cutting a winner with a strongly positive forward is exactly what the trim-discipline gates forbid. Ex-dividend HKon 08-05 (~1.4%, no threat to the stop) and Q1 FY27 earnings on 08-13 - hold and trail through both rather than pre-trimming. Ops: trail HELD at 23.04, NOT lowered to the model's drifted Stop_Price 21.43 (HS-3a) and NOT tightened despite RSI_DIV, since 23.04 is already 1.02x ATR below the close (tighter than a 2x-ATR chandelier at 21.42) and earnings are 8 sessions out. Not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 0.76, T12 progress 74%) so ADR-0012 does not engage; G3 blocks the valuation-elevate path. Re-arm exit on a decisive close below 23.04 (HS-3) or a 2nd consecutive cv0 print (HS-4). 1wk uses f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.157 degenerate). · news |
| 0148 | KINGBOARD HLDG | 41.24 | NO ACTION | 41.24 | — | n/a | n/a | 23.51 (-43.0%) | Passing on Kingboard. It flashed a buy signal on 31 July and we declined it; two sessions later that signal has already flipped back to avoid, which is exactly the whipsaw the rejection was guarding against. Valuation is a non-factor here - the shares sit essentially on top of our fair-value estimate, and the quality screen passes - so the decision rests entirely on the tape: a failed-breakout pattern with the price well below its long-term trend is not a setup worth paying for. Ops: counterfactual card (declined buy, NOT a trim - see Systemic #2). No GTC re-queued; the 07-28 order was already withdrawn. Its -43% 12wk print is a clamp artifact (Systemic #1) and was NOT used as the disqualifier today - the AVOID label was. |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 56.55 | NO ACTION | 56.55 | — | n/a | n/a | 36.99 (-34.6%) | Sunny Optical is the cheapest thing in this book and we are still not buying it. Our valuation work puts fair value near HKagainst a HKprice - a genuine ~19% discount, and it is the only name here clearing both the bargain and the quality screens, on roughly 11x trailing earnings. But cheap is not a reason to buy a falling stock: the shares sit well below their 200-day trend on a bearish rally-sell signal, and valuation is never allowed to originate a purchase on its own. So it goes on the watchlist with a defined trigger rather than into the portfolio. Ops: val_adj +4 and size_mod 1.25x computed and carried for when the trigger fires. Re-arm: a bullish-family label (Pullback/Reversal) PLUS a reclaim of EMA200 ~65.55. Counterfactual card (declined buy, NOT a trim - see Systemic #2). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.