Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 23.42 | HOLD | 23.42 | 22.80 | 24.30 (+3.8%) | 26.35 (+12.5%) | 33.04 (+41.1%) | Lenovo stays a hold through the sector shock. The shares gave back 3.70% to HKon a day the Asian chip complex was routed by China-competition and AI-bubble fears, leaving the position a hair under our HKcost (-0.26%) - but conviction actually ROSE and the signal stayed bullish, a constructive divergence rather than deterioration. The 12-week view of HKis still +41% and sits comfortably below our HKDCF anchor, so the shares are not expensive against what the business earns; valuation is FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.37) and contributes nothing either way. Lenovo is an AI-PC and server story, not a memory maker, and was not named in any event in the next ten trading days. OPERATIONAL: trail HELD at HK - the 1.0xATR chandelier computes 21.95 (below the standing trail, so the ratchet holds rather than lowers), and the model Stop_Price 22.92 is again exactly today's Low and is NOT adopted (HS-3a; same artifact as 07-27's 23.48). Cushion is thin: today's low 22.92 came within HK (0.08 ATR) of the trail. Ex-dividend HKon 2026-08-05 mechanically marks the close to ~23.08 - apply the trail test to the cum-div-adjusted level, do NOT read the ex-div gap as a breakdown. Not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR -0.04, T12_Progress 70.88%) so ADR-0012 is inert; no Exit_Warning; L2 not met. A decisive close below 22.80 re-arms the exit - act on that open (L3). 1wk uses f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.157 degenerate). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.