Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 24.32 | HOLD | 24.32 | 22.80 | 25.21 (+3.7%) | 27.28 (+12.2%) | 34.66 (+42.5%) | Lenovo stays a hold: the position is green (+3.58% over a HKcost), the signal is still bullish (FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, Consolidation_Bullish) and the 12-week view of HKis +42.5% above the close, while valuation reads fair (FAIR_VALUE, margin of safety -0.37, quality screen passed) with the DCF anchor at HKcomfortably above the 12-week target. News is neutral - no dated catalyst, just the 05 Aug ex-dividend of HK. Conviction has eased three sessions running -> 55, now a WATCH state), so this is a hold-and-trail, not an add. OPERATIONAL: trail HELD at 22.80 - the 1.0xATR chandelier recomputes to 22.84 and rounds down to the 0.05 tick grid, so the ratchet re-derives the existing level. NOT raised to the model Stop_Price 23.48 (only 0.57 ATR below close); today's Low tagged 23.48 exactly and the close finished +3.6% above it - adopting the drifted model stop would have been a breakeven whipsaw (HS-3a confirmed same-session). Profit-take rule INERT: not PROFIT_ARMED (Gain_ATR 0.57 < 3.0, T12_Progress 70.17 < 90), so the -11pt conviction slip is a WATCH, not a trim. No Exit_Warning (RSI_DIV cleared, third session). L2 not met (12wk positive). Re-arm the exit on a decisive close below 22.80 and act on that open (L3). f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.157 degenerate). Ex-div 08-05 drops the close ~HKto ~23.98 - still clear of the trail; do not misread the gap as a breakdown. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.