Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 24.34 | HOLD | 24.34 | 22.80 | 25.29 (+3.9%) | 27.52 (+13.1%) | 34.68 (+42.5%) | Holding Lenovo through a routine give-back. After three straight up days the shares eased to HK (-1.1%), the first down day, but remain +3.7% above our HKcost and well clear of the 22.80 trail. Conviction cooled and the RSI divergence warning from yesterday cleared, but nothing here is an exit: the label is still a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up_20D HOLD, the position is green, intrinsic value reads FAIR (marginally rich, MoS -0.37, quality screen passed), and the 12-week view is +42.5%. The conviction dip is a watch, not a trim - the position is not PROFIT_ARMED (gain only 0.54 ATR and 70% of the way to target, both below the arming bar), so the profit-take rule can't fire. We are not adding: there is no buy print anywhere in the book, and yesterday's lone candidate (2318 AAC) collapsed from BUY to no-trade today, vindicating the decision to decline that chase. Trail HELD at HK - a down/lower-conviction day is no reason to ratchet up, and we do not adopt the model's tight drifted stop of 23.86 (only ~0.3 ATR below close, would whipsaw this wide-ATR name; HS-3a). A decisive close back below 22.80 re-arms the exit and we act on that open (L3). Forward view (f=0.30, L5 - calib_1w -0.157 degenerate): 1wk HK (+3.9%), 4wk HK (+13.1%), 12wk HK (+42.5%, below the HKDCF anchor). Batch run: no live news fetch - move reads as AI-PC/sector beta, ex-div ~06 Aug outside the window. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.