Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 24.62 | HOLD | 24.62 | 22.80 | 25.68 (+4.3%) | 28.16 (+14.4%) | 35.08 (+42.5%) | Holding Lenovo, and the base has firmed decisively. The shares posted a third straight constructive close at HK (+2.2%), now +4.9% above our HKcost, and conviction leapt - the strongest reading since entry. The signal is a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up_20D HOLD, price sits above every major moving average, and intrinsic value reads FAIR (marginally rich, MoS -0.25, quality screen passed), so nothing argues for selling. An RSI_DIV warning printed for the first time, but it does NOT trigger a trim: the position is not PROFIT_ARMED (gain 0.64 ATR < 3.0, only 70% of the way to the 12-week target, both below the arming thresholds), valuation is FAIR not extreme (needs MoS below -3 to elevate), and the trim-discipline gates say ride a rising-conviction winner with a +42.5% forward view - trail, don't cut. We are not adding: the sole buy print (2318, conviction 61, entry 53.59) is below our 65 bar AND extended 2.8 ATR past its entry - a chase we decline. Trail RAISED HK -> HK (the pre-committed third-constructive-close ratchet, ~1 ATR below close), not lowered to the model's drifted 21.08 (HS-3a). A decisive close back below 22.80 re-arms the exit and we act on that open (L3). Forward view (f=0.30, L5 - calib_1w -0.157 degenerate): 1wk HK (+4.3%), 4wk HK (+14.4%), 12wk HK (+42.5%, below the HKDCF anchor). Batch run: no live news fetch - move reads as AI-PC/sector beta, ex-div ~06 Aug outside the window. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.