Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 24.10 | HOLD | 23.24 | 22.14 | 25.11 (+8.0%) | 27.45 (+18.1%) | 33.89 (+45.8%) | Holding Lenovo, and the decision to cancel last week's exit is now clearly the right one. The shares rose a second straight day to close HK (+3.7%), lifting the position 2.6% ABOVE our cost for the first time since we bought it - had the stop-exit executed at HKwe would have sold ~HKtoo cheap. The signal is a constructive PullbackBuy_VWAP HOLD, our own preferred entry family (L1), with conviction rising, no exit warning, and price above every major moving average. Intrinsic value reads FAIR (marginally rich, MoS -0.25, quality screen passed), so nothing argues for selling. We are not adding: there is no buy signal in the book, the one-day HK-semiconductor bounce faded after SK Hynix's Q2 print (chasing it would be the L6 trap), and the position is already ~37% of the book. Trail HELD at HK - not lowered to the model's drifted 21.08 (HS-3a), and not yet raised because this is only a two-day base and the stock's ATR is a wide 7% of price, so a tighter stop would whipsaw; on a third constructive close we ratchet toward 22.6-23.0. A decisive close back below 22.14 re-arms the exit and we act on that open (L3). Forward view (f=0.30, L5 - calib_1w -0.157 degenerate): 1wk HK (+4.2%), 4wk HK (+13.9%), 12wk HK (+40.6%, below the HKDCF anchor). News: none found - the move reads as AI-PC/sector beta, ex-dividend ~06 Aug is outside the window and immaterial. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.