Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 23.24 | HOLD | 23.24 | 22.14 | 24.26 (+4.4%) | 26.65 (+14.7%) | 31.96 (+37.5%) | Holding Lenovo. The shares jumped 8.5% to HKin a broad Hong Kong semiconductor rebound - the whole book bounced ahead of SK Hynix's Q2 print on 22 July - reclaiming our HKstop and cutting the loss to just 1.0% below cost. The signal is a constructive FailedBreakdown_Up_20D HOLD, price sits above its 20-, 50- and 200-day averages, and intrinsic value reads FAIR (marginally rich, MoS -0.25, quality screen passed), so nothing argues for selling here. We are not adding either: conviction eased, this is a signal family our own scorecard treats as a chase (L1/HS-5), and the bounce is sector beta with no company-specific catalyst on the tape. Position, MTM HK (~37% of the book). Trail HELD at 22.14 - not lowered to the model's 21.64 (HS-3a) and not raised, since the position is still below cost and one session does not make a base. A decisive close back below 22.14 re-arms the exit immediately, and this time act on the open (L3). Watch: SK Hynix Q2 on 07-22 is a two-sided +/-12% read-through to the HK semi complex - Lenovo is not named directly but the sector tone travels. · news |
| 6869 | YOFC | 142.00 | NO ACTION | 142.00 | 61.96 | 152.00 (+7.0%) | 175.25 (+23.4%) | 80.94 (-43.0%) | Not buying YOFC despite it being the book's only buy signal today (BUY, conviction 72, rank #1). Four independent disqualifiers: adjusted conviction falls to 62 after a -10 valuation haircut (growth already priced in, margin of safety -10.78), below our 65 bar; the quality screen FAILS, which blocks new entries outright; the model's own 12-week projection is HK - 43% BELOW today's HKclose, an internally contradictory 'buy'; and the printed stop of HKsits 56% below entry, i.e. no usable risk control. This is a falling-knife oversold-bounce, the family our learnings (L1/HS-5) explicitly discount, and the name is now 6 sessions into exclusion (156..00). The no-chase counterfactual in this book reads 'saved' (n=2, median -8.54%). Sidelines. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.