Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 21.42 | SELL ALL | 21.42 | 22.14⚠ | n/a | n/a | 29.14 (+36.0%) | Exiting Lenovo in full at the stop - a re-issue of the order that failed to execute this morning. The shares have now closed below our HKtrailing stop for a second straight session (21.42, -3.25%), and today's rally to 22.62 was sold back below the line, so the reclaim attempt failed. The signal itself has deteriorated further, from a bullish hold to NO TRADE on consensus conflict. Fair value still reads FAIR_VALUE (margin of safety -0.25, quality screen passed) and the model's 12-week view remains constructive at 29.14 (+36%), and no company news explains the two-week slide - this is HK semiconductor and hardware sector beta, with the whole book printing AVOID or NO TRADE. But a stop obeyed only when the model agrees is not a stop. Proceeds of about HKtake the book to roughly 100% cash ahead of the 07-22 SK Hynix print. OPERATIONAL: HS-3 pure trailing-stop exit, basis unchanged from 07-17. NOT L2 (12wk positive), NOT a profit-take (Gain_ATR -1.25, -8.77%, no PROFIT_ARMED), NOT valuation-originated (amplify-only, MoS -0.25 above the -3 tier bar so size_mod stays 1.0), NOT concentration (CLAUDE.md s9). The NO TRADE row prints no Stop_Price and the last live one had drifted DOWN to 21.11 - rejected per HS-3(a): the book never lowers a trail. First cv0 print, so HS-4 makes it confirmatory not originating. 1wk/4wk estimates n/a: a NO TRADE row prints no Target_Price to interpolate from (f would be 0.30 per L5, calib_1w -0.157). Est band 19.33-24.77. L8: executes at the 2026-07-21 open; 21.42 is the 07-20 close-ref - reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (outside ~21.10-21.74) and ACT on the reprice rather than letting the order lapse a second time. Realized ~-HK (-8.77%) on vs 23.48 cost;. Cross-book: hk/hktech/hkfin/hklev hold zero 0992, so L7 is moot. No Lenovo event within 10 days (ex-dividend HKon 08-05 is outside the window); horizon's 07-22 SK Hynix read-through names 0981/1347/7709, not 0992. Counterfactual optional_trim n=5, median -15.0% at 1wk, verdict 'cost' - reinforces acting. Re-arm long only on a stabilised close back above 22.14 with a bullish print (L4). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
9 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.