Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 21.42 | SELL ALL | 21.42 | 22.14⚠ | 23.26 (+8.6%) | 27.54 (+28.6%) | 30.29 (+41.4%) | Exiting Lenovo in full at the stop. The shares closed decisively below our HKtrailing stop (21.42, -3.25%) on a third straight down session - a -10.2% two-day slide - so we honour the risk limit we set rather than renegotiate it at the moment of loss. Fair value still reads FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.25) and the model's 12-week view stays constructive at 30.29 (+41.4%), and no company-specific news explains the drop (it is HK semis/hardware sector beta) - but none of that rescues a broken stop, and a stop obeyed only when the model agrees is not a stop. OPERATIONAL: pure trailing-stop exit; NOT L2 (12wk positive), NOT a profit-take (Gain_ATR -1.21, -8.77%, not PROFIT_ARMED), NOT valuation-originated (amplify-only; MoS -0.25 is above the -3 tier-bump bar, so size_mod stays 1.0), NOT concentration-driven (CLAUDE.md s9). Signal is still a bullish PullbackBuy_VWAP cv62 (flat, no Exit_Warning) above EMA50/EMA200 - the exit is a risk-control decision, not a forecast disagreement. The model's own live Stop_Price trailed DOWN to 21.11 (unbroken on close) and is rejected as a reason to stay: the book never lowers a trail, a stop drifting down as price falls is a trailing artifact not a fresh risk decision, and the 07-16 EOD pre-committed in writing that a decisive close below 22.14 exits. L3 (execute the de-risk promptly) plus the counterfactual optional_trim n=4 median -17.26% at 1wk (verdict: cost) both reinforce acting now. Intraday low 20.78 broke even the model stop. No Lenovo event <=10d, so the catalyst-aware hold does not apply. L8: executes at the 2026-07-20 open; 21.42 is the 07-17 close-ref - reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (outside ~21.10-21.74). Realized ~-HK (-8.77%) on; proceeds ~HK -> book ~100% cash. Re-arm long only on a stabilised close back above 22.14 with a bullish print (L4). |
| 6869 | YOFC | 130.40 | NO ACTION | 130.40 | 74.06 | 146.10 (+12.0%) | 182.73 (+40.1%) | 74.33 (-43.0%) | Not bought. YOFC is the book's only bullish print today (BUY cv66 OversoldBounce_Up, Buy_Rank #1) and it is disqualified four independent ways: adjusted conviction falls to 56 after a -10 valuation haircut (GROWTH_PRICED_IN, MoS -10.78), below the 65 floor; the quality gate fails outright (Quality_Pass False), which blocks new entries; its own 12-week target of 74.33 sits 43% BELOW the 130.40 close - the falling-knife pattern this book has repeatedly flagged as not buyable; and the printed stop of 74.06 is 43% below entry, a meaningless risk control. OPERATIONAL: 3rd consecutive session excluded (07-15 BUY cv72 near-miss -> 07-16 AVOID cv66 -> 07-17 BUY cv66) while price fell 156..40 (-16.6%) - the no_chase_queue counterfactual (n=2, median -8.54% saved) vindicates the discipline. L1 discounts oversold-bounce knife-catches. Ledgered untaken for counterfactual grading. Re-arm only on a stabilised close above the model entry with a positive 12wk view. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
8 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.