Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 22.26 | HOLD | 22.26 | 22.14 | 23.31 (+4.7%) | 25.76 (+15.7%) | 31.72 (+42.5%) | Hold the core Lenovo position. Signal stays a bullish FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (cv62, no exit warning) with a 12wk view of 31.72 (+42.5%) well above spot and fair-value FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.25) — no signal-based sell exists. Today's -6.7% is HK-semis sector beta (whole book down 6-9%), not a name-specific breakdown, so no panic exit. Kept the HKtrail stop (never lowered); close 22.26 is only +0.5% above it, so a decisive close below 22.14 next session exits. Not PROFIT_ARMED (position at -5.2%). L8: execution unchanged, position stays live. |
| 1347 | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 157.40 | NO ACTION | 187.78 | 161.58 | n/a | 238.58 (+27.1%) | 219.17 (+16.7%) | Not bought. Hua Hong's lone BUY (cv62 PullbackBuy_VWAP, Buy_Rank #1) is disqualified four ways: adj conviction falls to 52 after a -10 valuation haircut (GROWTH_PRICED_IN, MoS -20.9), below the 65 floor; the quality gate fails (F-Score/FCF screen); the entry 187.78 is a +1.5 ATR chase buy-stop +19% above the 157.40 close after a -7% down day (a 'pullback' label on breakout mechanics); and it is a single fresh flip with no multi-snapshot stability. Ledgered optional/untaken for counterfactual grading. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
8 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.