Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 23.86 | HOLD | 23.86 | 22.14 | 24.90 (+4.4%) | 27.31 (+14.5%) | 34.00 (+42.5%) | Hold the 32,000-share Lenovo position — still bullish and now in profit: HOLD cv66 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, close 23.86 (+1.62% vs 23.48 cost), 12wk target HK (+42.5%) far above close, no exit warning, above the raised stop, Gain_ATR 0.22 / T12_Progress 70% so NOT profit-armed (no trim). No signal-based sell basis; position-shape/concentration never originates a sell (CLAUDE.md §9). Conviction eased (-5, not >=20, no fire-tick). Trail stop RAISED 21..14 (~1.0 ATR below close; model's 23.34 = 0.30 ATR too tight/whipsaw). Valuation blind (val_adj 0, HK NA_CCY book). No add — already ~38% of book. Held through the passed June CPI 07-14; no Lenovo event in the 10-day horizon. |
| 6869 | YOFC | 156.40 | NO ACTION | 156.40 | 75.50 | n/a | 192.60 (+23.1%) | 89.15 (-43.0%) | Floor-clearing BUY deliberately NOT taken: YOFC flipped AVOID(07-13)->WATCH(07-14)->BUY cv72 ReversalUp_Oversold (Buy_Rank #1), adj 72 clears the 65 floor numerically. Excluded because (1) 12wk target 89.15 is 43% BELOW the 156.40 close — a deeply negative forward view; this is exactly the falling-knife pattern book note B flags as not buyable; (2) oversold-reversal family is an L1-discounted knife-catch vs the favored PullbackBuy_VWAP; (3) single fresh print, weak stability; (4) printed stop 75.50 is 52% below entry — a broken/meaningless risk-defined entry. Ledgered direction:none/optional so the counterfactual grader prices what not-buying costs. Valuation blind (val_adj 0). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
8 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.