Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 23.16 | HOLD | 23.48 | 21.26 | 24.46 (+4.2%) | 27.17 (+15.7%) | 33.20 (+41.4%) | Hold the 32,000-share Lenovo position (AI-PC/AI-infra leader, +137% YTD, Zacks #1 Strong Buy) - still bullish: BUY cv71, Buy_Rank #1, 12wk target HK (+42%) far above the HKclose, no exit warning, above the HKstop, essentially at cost (-0.8%). No signal-based sell basis -> no trim (CLAUDE.md §9: position-shape/concentration never originates a sell). Reconcile: the Auto-Executor filled BOTH the 07-09 (16,000 @23.42) and 07-10 (16,000 @23.54) GTC limits today, so the intended single 16,000 position doubled to 32,000 @ avg 23.48 (~37% of book) - a double-fill because the 07-10 reprice was treated as additive, not a supersede (systemic finding #1). Consequence: NO further ADD despite the floor-clearing BUY - existing exposure already exceeds the position cap (sizing formula yields <=0 new shares). Signal cell shifted PullbackBuy_VWAP->FailedBreakdown_Up_20D (weak-chase cell, L1/P4 discount; scorecard bias +0 this run). Stop carried at 21.26 (model's 22.72 too tight vs 1.93 ATR - whipsaw). Valuation blind (val_adj 0). Hold through June CPI 07-14 (overlay event-gate). · news |
| 0981 | SMIC | 78.35 | NO ACTION | 82.06 | 72.08 | n/a | 101.41 (+23.6%) | 87.63 (+6.8%) | Borderline buy deferred again, not taken: SMIC prints BUY on the L1-favored PullbackBuy_VWAP cell (Buy_Rank #2) but conviction slipped, now BELOW the 65 floor, and the entry 82.06 is a buy-stop ABOVE the 78.35 close (EntD +0.48) that would fill on a breakout into tomorrow's June CPI (07-14) - against the overlay's de-risk-into-CPI bias. Deferred to a >=65 conviction print + a coherent (non-extended) entry post-CPI. Ledgered direction:none/optional so the grader prices the deferral. 12wk 87.63 vs 78.35 close = +11.8% (positive, not a falling knife) so it stays a live re-arm candidate. Valuation blind (val_adj 0). |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
8 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
21 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.