Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 28.10 | ADD — QUEUED @27.44 | 27.44 | 24.30 | 31.69 (+15.5%) | 41.61 (+51.6%) | 40.04 (+45.9%) | Lenovo broke to a 52-week high, closing at the top of its range on nearly double the prior session's volume, and it is the only name in this twelve-stock book with a positive twelve-week outlook. The AI-server business is the engine behind it: order pipeline above $21bn entering FY2027, AI revenue up 84% year-on-year and now 38% of group sales. We already own the stock at a 20% gain, so this is an add to a winner rather than a new bet, and we are bidding 2.3% below today's close instead of buying the spike. Valuation is neutral-to-slightly-rich (fair value, small negative margin of safety) which trims the size a touch but does not argue against owning it. OPERATIONAL: adj conv 67 -2 (val) +0 (bias, BreakoutUp_52W ungraded cell) = 65, exactly at the floor - a queue, not a conviction call. Entry_Distance_ATR -0.37 fails the no-chase bar so this is a GTC buy-LIMIT at the anchor Entry_Price 27.44, NOT a market order; the engine's Order_Type field printed 'Buy Stop @ 27.44' below a 28.10 close, which would fill instantly at market - OVERRIDDEN to limit (Systemic #1). Sizing: 39.22% x 32,000 = at the 2,000-sh board lot, size_mod 1.00x, cost HKfrom HKseed. Post-fill = 57.4% of book vs max_position_pct 60.0 - binding, no further 0992 adds. Risk vs the book's 24.30 trail = HK = 1.75% of; merged-lot avg cost 24.56 vs 24.30 trail = -1.06% worst case. Model stop 20.35 IGNORED per HS-3a (drifted down from 25.18). expires_on 2026-08-12 is set deliberately to land the session BEFORE Q1 FY27 earnings on 08-13 - the book will NOT carry an open add through the print; if unfilled it dies and we enter the event at. L6 preserved: any post-print entry must be re-derived. 4wk 41.61 = +51.6% is the L1 BreakoutUp_52W overshoot artifact and the 1wk 31.69 inherits it (f=0.30, calib_1w -0.157 degenerate, L5) - scan band 26.82-32.58, realistic 1wk is 28-30. No DCF annotation: 12wk 40.04 < DCF anchor 43.47. News window read is WEAK - Yahoo quote/news 503, Seeking Alpha 403; no dated 08-06/08-07 catalyst found for the +8.33%. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
10 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.