Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 29.00 | HOLD | 28.68 | 25.27 | 33.18 (+15.7%) | 42.92 (+49.7%) | 41.32 (+44.1%) | Lenovo made a second consecutive 52-week high, closing 29.00 (+3.20%) on 117.5m shares, and the book is holding all into Wednesday's Q1 FY27 print rather than trimming or adding. The signal is unchanged BreakoutUp_52W at conviction 67 with a +42.5% 12-week view, valuation is merely FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.39, quality passed) rather than stretched, and no news in the 08-08 to 08-10 window argues either way -- so there is no case to sell a winner mid-trend, and the 60%-of-book position cap blocks buying more. Risk is managed by raising the trailing stop instead. | ADD DECLINED - CONCENTRATION CAP, NOT CONVICTION: adjusted conviction 67 - 2 + 0 = 65 clears the floor and Entry_Distance_ATR -0.18 passes the no-chase bar, but the position is 58.12% of a HKbook against max_position_pct 60.0 (hk.ini); headroom HK = at 28.68, below the 2,000-share board lot, so the model-faithful truncates to ZERO. The 08-07 entry predicted this exactly ('the last add the book can make in this name'). | PROFIT_ARMED IS A STALE-COST ARTIFACT - DO NOT TRIM (Systemic #1, NEW): the scan wrote at 17:00:24 and the Auto-Executor booked the 12,000 @ 27.44 fill at 17:00:28, four seconds later, so the CSV carries PRE-FILL state (Action_Rationale literally reads 'Held ', Avg_Cost 23.48). Gain_ATR 3.05 is computed off that stale cost; on the TRUE post-fill cost 24.56 it is 2.455, BELOW the 3.0 arm, and T12_Progress 70.18 < 90. The book is NOT armed under ADR-0012. Belt-and-braces: even taking the printed arm at face value, ZERO fire ticks fire -- (a) no other Exit_Warning code, (b) conviction flat (not -20), (c) 12wk 41.32 >> 1.02 x Close 29.58, (d) no NO TRADE print. Same verdict under either reading. HS-1 explicitly instructs ignoring stale-state PROFIT_ARMED artifacts. | TRAIL RAISED 24.30 -> 25.27, deliberately NOT the 2.0x chandelier 25.50: carries the book's standing 2.13x ATR spacing off the new 29.12 high so cushion is not cut three sessions before a binary print (catalyst-aware hold). Cushion 12.9% / 2.06 ATR; the whole is locked +HK / +2.89% above the 24.56 merged cost. Peak Stop 24.30 -> 25.27; ADR-0020 Trail Erosion NOT fired (stop has only ever ratcheted up). Model Stop_Price 25.06 finally ratcheted up from 20.35 but is still below the book trail, so the book trail governs (HS-3a). | NO SELL ORIGINATION CLASS FIRES: no REDUCE label; close 29.00 vs trail 24.30 = no HS-3 stop break; L2 needs stop-break AND negative 12wk, neither leg; MoS -0.39 nowhere near the -3 valuation-elevate bar; G1/G3 forbid trimming a fresh BreakoutUp_52W with a +42.5% forward view (the NBIS cutting-the-winner case). Earnings 3 sessions out -> HOLD/trail through the print, trim only on a confirmed lower high or a decisive stop break. 1wk 33.18 recorded as printed but NOT believed (L1: BreakoutUp_52W 4wk targets overshoot 55-75%; realistic 1wk is the 28-31 area, scan band 27.95-33.68). No DCF annotation: 12wk 41.32 sits below the DCF anchor 43.47. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
11 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.