Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 28.54 | HOLD | 29.29 | 25.27 | 31.74 (+8.4%) | 39.19 (+33.8%) | 40.67 (+38.9%) | Lenovo touched a new 52-week high at 29.38 and then rejected it, closing 28.54 (-1.59%) in the bottom fifth of the day's range on a fifth less volume - a consolidation day inside a very strong uptrend, not a top. The book holds all into Thursday's Q1 FY27 results rather than trimming or adding: conviction actually rose, the 12-week view is still +42.5%, valuation is merely fair (MoS -0.61, quality passed, and the 12-week target sits below the 43.50 DCF anchor), and the AI-server case behind the year's 200%+ run is intact. The position is up 16.2% and the trailing stop already locks in a gain across the whole holding, so the sensible posture two days before a binary earnings print is to let the risk line do the work. Not a buy either: the signal downgraded to HOLD, the model entry moved to 29.29 - above the market - and the position is 57.7% of the book against a 60% cap. Operational: ADR-0012 arm test FAILS on correct data (Gain_ATR 2.41 < 3.0, T12_Progress 70.2 < 90, Exit_Warning blank), vindicating the 08-10 stale-cost catch - yesterday's spurious PROFIT_ARMED came from a pre-fill Avg_Cost 23.48 and today's row correctly reads 24.56 / 'Held '. TRAIL DELIBERATELY HELD AT 25.27, NOT RATCHETED: the standing 2.13x ATR spacing off the 29.38 high would give 25.86, but price fell while the high rose so that would cut cushion 2.06x -> 1.62x ATR two sessions before a +-6% event; at 25.27 a modelled -6% print (~26.83) clears by 0.95 ATR, at 25.86 by only 0.59 ATR. Re-arm the ratchet after the 08-13 print. Model Stop_Price drifted DOWN 25.06 -> 24.33 and is ignored per HS-3a. Peak Stop 25.27, ADR-0020 erosion 0%. Estimates use f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.157 degenerate); the 4wk 39.19 is recorded but NOT believed (L1 breakout-family overshoot) - scan band 27.43-32.57, realistic 1wk 27.5-30.5. Catalyst-aware hold binding (G1/G3): trim only on a confirmed lower high or a decisive stop break. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
12 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.