Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 29.04 | HOLD | 29.54 | 25.27 | 32.00 (+8.3%) | 38.92 (+31.8%) | 41.38 (+40.1%) | Hold Lenovo into tomorrow's Q1 FY26/27 print. The shares gapped down 2% at the open, held that low all day and closed +1.8% in the top 88% of the range - an absorption bar, not a top - while the model's conviction rose for a third straight session -> 72) and momentum recovered. Valuation is neutral (fair value, margin of safety -0.61, no penalty beyond a 3-point haircut) and the 12-week view of HKstill sits below the HKDCF anchor, so nothing argues for banking the +18% gain here. The one real risk is two-sided: surging DRAM contract prices are a genuine input-cost headwind for a server and PC assembler, offset by Lenovo having memory locked in for all of 2026 and inventory ~50% above normal. We hold the position and take the risk through the event with a defined stop rather than guessing the result. || Ops: ADR-0012 arm test FAILS - Gain_ATR 2.86 < 3.0, T12_Progress 70.18 < 90, Exit_Warning blank; no trim. Trail HELD at 25.27 for a third session, chandelier ratchet to 26.05 DECLINED because HS-3 makes a stop break an unconditional full exit and a modelled -10% earnings reaction (26.14) stops out at 26.05 but survives 25.27 with 0.56 ATR to spare; horizon band +/-6.0% / +/-0.94 ATR, confidence high. RATCHET RE-ARMS UNCONDITIONALLY AT THE 08-14 EOD - three skips is the limit. Peak Stop 25.27, ADR-0020 erosion 0%, not fired. Model Stop_Price 24.84 ignored per HS-3a (still 1.7% below the book trail after nine sessions of drift). Cap binding for the record: 58.16% of a 60% cap = HKheadroom = at 29.54, below the 2,000-sh board lot =. Estimates f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.157); 4wk 38.92 recorded but NOT believed (L1); scan band 28.16-32.92. Systemic #8: Gain_ATR is one-third ATR-compression driven and arms on volatility alone at ATR 1.4933. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
12 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.