Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 34.90 | HOLD | 30.13 | 29.00 | 39.46 (+31.0%) | 50.10 (+66.3%) | 49.73 (+65.1%) | Lenovo's Q1 FY2026/27 result was a genuine blowout, and we are holding the full position rather than trimming into it: group revenue hit an all-time quarterly high of US9bn (+43% year-on-year), adjusted net income rose 176% to US1bn -- the first quarter ever above a billion -- and AI revenue grew 60% to US3bn, now 35% of the group. Crucially every business group posted record Q1 operating profit, which directly answers the razor-thin infrastructure-margin risk we have carried on this name since July. The shares gapped up and closed +20.2% at HKon nearly four times normal volume, a new 52-week high, and the valuation is still only fair rather than stretched. We are not adding here -- after a 20% single-session move the stock trades 1.9 ATR above the model's own entry with RSI at 79, which is a wait-for-pullback setup, not an entry -- and we are not selling, because every deterioration test came back clean. Instead we bank the gain by risk: the trailing stop moves up from HKto HK, locking in HKof profit on the position without selling a share. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 armed (Exit_Warning PROFIT_ARMED, Gain_ATR 4.08 >= 3.0; hand-check (34.90-24.56)/2.535748 = 4.078) with ZERO fire ticks -- (a) no other Exit_Warning code on the row, (b) conviction ROSE, (c) 12wk 49.73 vs 1.02x Close 35.60 so the forward view is alive at +42.5%, (d) not 2 consecutive NO TRADE -- therefore MANDATORY TRAIL-RAISE, not a trim; no optional-trim language. ACQUIRE declined four ways despite adjusted 87 clearing the 65 floor: (1) position cap BREACHED by appreciation, 44,000 x 34.90 = HK = 62.55% of a 60% max_position_pct on a HKbook, headroom -HK (negative; portfolio shape never originates a sell per CLAUDE.md s9, it only blocks ADDs); (2) L6 no post-earnings gap-chase, this IS the print session, +20.18% on 3.86x volume; (3) ACT-NOW no-chase bar fails both legs, Entry_Distance_ATR -1.88 and RSI 78.97 > 75 = CLAUDE.md s9 wait-for-pullback; (4) HS-18 -- Order_Type prints 'Buy Stop @ HK' against a 34.90 close, a stop 13.7% BELOW market that is a market order in disguise; derived instrument is a buy-limit and nothing is queued because there is no cap capacity. TRAIL PROVENANCE: the mechanical 2.0x ATR PROFIT_ARMED chandelier (35.46 - 5.07 = 30.39) and the standing 2.13x spacing (30.06) BOTH sit above the 29.60 session low, i.e. inside the trigger bar, and HS-3 makes a stop break an unconditional FULL exit -- adopting either would liquidate a +42% position on the first ordinary gap retest (Systemic #11). HKis placed 0.24 ATR below the gap-day low = 2.55x ATR off the 35.46 high; risk at trail 44,000 x 29.00 = HKvs cost HK = +HK / +18.08% locked. Peak Stop re-bases 25.27 -> 29.00; ADR-0020 erosion resets to 0%. RE-ARM TRIGGER: tighten to the then-computed 2.0-2.13x ATR chandelier the first session 0992 posts a Low above HK; no further discretionary skips -- the 08-12 commitment to re-arm at the 08-14 EOD is discharged tonight, one session early, because its sole basis (the unresolved binary earnings event) has resolved. Model Stop_Price 25.06 is 13.6% below the book trail and ignored per HS-3a, tenth consecutive session. Estimates f=0.30 (L5, calib_1w -0.157 degenerate); 4wk 50.10 carries the L1 breakout-overshoot prior and is NOT believed, though L1 was wrong-footed this session (the 08-12 disbelieved 4wk of 38.92 was nearly reached in one day). 12wk 49.73 EXCEEDS the DCF anchor 43.50 by HK -- annotation required for the first time, annotated not modified. Scan band Est_Low 28.57 - Est_High 45.37. The declined ADD is deliberately NOT ledgered as a separate optional:true card because the optional_trim counterfactual bucket is sign-inverted for declined buys in this book (Systemic #6). · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
12 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.