Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 33.60 | SELL 30% | 33.60 | 30.65 | 35.15 (+4.6%) | 38.77 (+15.4%) | 47.88 (+42.5%) | Taking 30% of the Lenovo profit off the table one day after the blowout earnings bar. The shares printed a new 52-week high at 36.16 this morning and then faded all day to close 33.60, -3.72%, at the bottom of the range - a high-then-fade on day two of a +20% gap - and the model's conviction in the setup fell 23 points, from, as the signal rotated out of the strongest bullish family into a weak one. The business case is genuinely stronger tonight than last night: the AI server pipeline is US$54bn, up 157% sequentially, on revenue of US9bn (+43% y/y, well past the US4bn consensus) and adjusted net income up 176% to US1bn, and that is exactly why we are selling the minimum 30% rather than half or all of it, and leaving the 12-week view of 47.88 (+42.5%) intact on the 70% that stays. Fair value reads FAIR_VALUE with a margin of safety of -0.61 - it neither argues for a bigger cut nor a smaller one. This banks HKof realized gain, the first in the book's history, and lifts cash to 58% ahead of a week of China activity data, Xiaomi's results and the FOMC minutes. OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED (PROFIT_ARMED on the row, Gain_ATR 3.50 >= 3.0, hand-check (33.60-24.56)/2.5845982 = 3.498; T12_Progress 70.18 < 90) + FIRED on tick (b) alone (conviction -23 vs the prior EOD snapshot); ticks (a) no other Exit_Warning code, (c) 12wk 47.88 vs 1.02x Close 34.27 = alive, (d) not 2x NO TRADE. One tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%, never 100% from a profit-take. G1 does not engage (row is FailedBreakdown_Up_20D cv67, not a fresh BreakoutUp_*/MomentumContinuation_* cv>=80) and tick (b) is exempt from G1 regardless; G2/G3 govern only the s9c valuation-elevate path, which is not the basis here. Valuation amplify NONE: MoS -0.6055 is far from the <= -3 tier bump and not UNDERVALUED, so val_adj 0 / size_mod 1.0. NOT concentration-originated - the 61.66% vs 60.0% max_position_pct breach (headroom -HK) arose purely from appreciation and is a consequence, not a cause (CLAUDE.md s9); the card would be identical at 40% invested. HS-2 does not apply ( +36.81%, a real profit-lock not target-exhaustion). Sizing: 30% x 44,000 = -share Lenovo board lot -> (31.8%); proceeds HKcost basis HKrealized +HK (+36.81%); residual = HK = 42.04% of a HKbook. Action price 33.60 is the row's own Entry_Price (deviation 0.00 ATR); entry range 32.95-34.25 (+-0.25 x ATR 2.5846). Estimates use f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.157 degenerate); 12wk 47.88 EXCEEDS the DCF anchor of 43.50 by 4.38 - annotated, not modified. scorecard_bias 0 means NO PRIOR: the FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|sell cell is n=0 (the +3 actionable cell is the |buy side, held report-only per learnings section C). COMPANION TRAIL RATCHET on the residual: 29.00 -> 30.65 (2.13x ATR off the 36.16 high), executing the 08-13 pre-commitment now that Low 33.38 > 30.40 confirms the gap is digested; Peak Stop re-bases to 30.65, ADR-0020 erosion 0% and not fired; the model Stop_Price of 28.43 is BELOW the book trail and is ignored per HS-3a. Locked: HKrealized + HKstop-protected on the residual = 77.8% of the HKunrealized gain. L8: executes at the 2026-08-17 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (outside ~33.10-34.10) and ACT on the reprice rather than letting it lapse (the 07-20 failure). No open GTC to supersede. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
12 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.157 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.