Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 33.02 | SELL 30% | 33.02 | 30.91 | n/a | n/a | 47.05 (+42.5%) | Re-issuing the Lenovo profit-take that never executed, and it is more warranted tonight than it was on Friday. The 30% trim decided at the 08-14 close was recorded for the Monday open and the Auto-Executor never saw it - the card was written with a non-vocabulary execution type - so the book still holds all. Monday opened at HK (+2.6% above the HKreference, i.e. a better price than the one we asked for), traded up to 34.94, then sold off all day to close 33.02, -1.73%, on the single day when every other name in this twelve-name semiconductor book rose (0148 +7.1%, 1347 +7.5%, 0981 +6.1%, 6869 +12.1%, 7709 +10.5%). Lenovo was the only decliner in its own sector on a broad sector rally two sessions after a blowout print - that is distribution, not consolidation. The model dropped the setup to NO TRADE at zero conviction on a consensus conflict, with the momentum pillar halving from, so the deterioration probe fires for a second consecutive session. We sell the minimum 30% - HKof realized gain on a +34% position - and let 70% keep running against a 12-week view of HK (+42.5%) that the record AI-server pipeline still supports; fair value reads FAIR_VALUE with a margin of safety of -0.61, so valuation neither argues for a deeper cut nor a smaller one. || OPERATIONAL: ADR-0012 profit-take, ARMED + FIRED on tick (b). Arm: PROFIT_ARMED on the anchor row, Gain_ATR 3.43 >= 3.0 (hand-check (33.02-24.56)/2.4636785 = 3.4339, Avg_Cost 24.56 reconciles with input/hksemiconportfolio.json so the HS-22 pre-fill artifact does not apply), T12_Progress 70.18 < 90 (fifth consecutive session at 70.18 - structurally pinned), +34.45% so HS-2 target-exhaustion does not apply. Ticks: (a) NO - PROFIT_ARMED prints alone for a third session, no RSI_DIV / CLIMAX_VOL / AVWAP_BREAK / EMA10_BREAK even on a -1.73% close against a +6% sector, which is pending HS-25 confirmed a third time; (b) YES - conviction, -67 points, the tick; (c) NO - 12wk 47.05 vs 1.02 x Close 33.68 = alive at +42.5%; (d) NO - 08-14 was HOLD so this is the FIRST NO TRADE print, and HS-4 requires two consecutive before a cv0 is deterioration in its own right. Honest caveat on tick (b): a NO TRADE row prints cv0 by construction (Pillar_Consensus Conflicted), so -67 overstates the signal-quality loss; the underlying deterioration is Momentum with Trend flat at 78, which is real but smaller than -67 implies. The tier is unaffected - 1 tick is 30% either way - and the direction agrees with Friday's independent read. 1 tick -> profit_take_1 = 30%, never 100% from a profit-take. G1 does not engage (NoTrade row, cv0, not a fresh BreakoutUp_* / MomentumContinuation_* at cv>=80) and tick (b) is exempt from G1 regardless; G2/G3 govern only the s9c valuation-elevate path, which is not the basis here. Valuation amplify NONE: MoS -0.6055 is far from the <= -3 tier bump and not UNDERVALUED, so val_adj 0 / size_mod 1.0. NOT concentration-originated - the 61.25% vs 60.0% max_position_pct breach (headroom -HK) is pure appreciation and per CLAUDE.md s9 blocks ADDs only; the card would be identical at 40% invested. Sizing: 30% x 44,000 = -share Lenovo board lot -> (31.8%), unchanged from the lapsed 08-14 card because the tier and the base position are both unchanged - this is a re-issue at a new price, NOT a second order and NOT an escalation. Proceeds HKcost basis HKrealized +HK (+34.45%) - the book's first realized gain; (58.24%); residual = HK = 41.76%. ACTION PRICE 33.02 = the anchor CLOSE, because a NO TRADE row prints Entry_Price / Stop_Price / Target_Price BLANK - stated as a deviation from the usual Entry_Price provenance and adopted because the alternative (carrying Friday's 33.60) is exactly the stale-limit republication the provenance rule forbids. Entry range 32.40-33.64 (+-0.25 x ATR 2.4637). ESTIMATES: 4wk and 1wk are n/a - Target_Price is blank on a NO TRADE row so there is no anchor to interpolate from and f (0.30 per L5, calib_1w -0.138 degenerate) has nothing to scale; Friday's 38.77 is deliberately NOT carried. 12wk 47.05 (+42.5%) stands and EXCEEDS the DCF anchor of HKby 3.55 - annotated, not modified. The scan's own forward envelope is Est_Low 31.54 - Est_High 39.67. What the 14,000 step out of if the 12wk is right: ~HKscorecard_bias 0: the NoTrade|sell cell exists at n=1 and graded 0-for-1 on both horizons - that is the 07-20 exit HS-7 flags as good_sell:false / missed_up +14.94%, the one prior time this book sold on a cv0 NO TRADE row and was wrong. Report-only (n=1), and materially different: 07-20 was a 100% dump near flat, tonight is a 30% profit-lock at +34% with 70% left running. Recorded as the standing caution on this card. COMPANION TRAIL RATCHET 30.65 -> 30.91 = 2.13x ATR (2.4637) off the unchanged 36.16 52-week high, the book's standing spacing; it sits HK / 0.83 ATR below today's Low of 32.96 so it is outside the bar (Systemic #11 clear; the HS-23 gap test does not engage, range/ATR = 0.80 < 2). Cushion 6.39% / 0.86 ATR - honestly tight, and under HS-3 a decisive close below it is an unconditional FULL exit of the residual; affordable only because today's cut removes from that distance (residual exposure to the trail HKvs HKon full size at 30.65). Pending HS-7 (partial-not-full on a shallow breach of a positive-12wk wide-ATR name) is INERT and NOT applied. Risk at trail on the residual: 30,000 x 30.91 = HKvs cost HK = +HK / +25.86% locked; with the realized gain that is HKof the HKunrealized either banked or stop-protected = 83.0%, up from 77.8% intended on Friday. Peak Stop re-bases 30.65 -> 30.91; ADR-0020 erosion 0%, NOT fired, and the cut satisfies the size-reduction test regardless. HS-3 breach test: NO breach (33.02 vs the 30.65 trail in force). HS-3a moot - the model prints no Stop_Price at all tonight; twelfth consecutive session governed by the hand-maintained trail. NEXT RATCHET, objective test per the HS-24 anti-drift discipline: tighten to the then-computed 2.13x ATR chandelier on any new 52-week high above 36.16; otherwise HOLD 30.91 - no downward drift, no discretionary skips. PRE-COMMITMENT: a second consecutive NO TRADE print at the 08-18 close fires tick (d) alongside tick (b) = 2 ticks = profit_take_2 = 50% of the then-residual, mandatory, no further judgement required. NEWS neutral, no override: no new same-day headline (the Yahoo quote-news page for 0992 has now failed or returned stale content on seven consecutive sessions, so this is search-indexing plus three article fetches, two of which returned February/April 2026 content). The standing two-sided case is unchanged - record Q1 revenue US94bn +43% y/y vs a US-22.4bn consensus, AI revenue +60% to US3bn = 35% of group, AI server pipeline US$54bn +157% q/q, against global memory supply constraints management itself expects to persist through the year (CEO Yang: shortages were 'accurately anticipated' and memory is locked for 2026). The one valuation-flavoured item, dated 08-12 and therefore pre-print, has Lenovo at 23.6x P/E against a tailored fair 18.3x and 160% one-year returns - mildly supportive of trimming, not new, and not an override. No 0992 event anywhere in the fresh 08-17 horizon window; the nearest read-through touching this book is NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 on 08-26 (0981/1347/0522/7709/7747/6869, band +-14%), which does not name 0992. L8: executes at the 2026-08-18 open; 33.02 is the close-ref, reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% (outside ~32.53-33.51) and ACT on the reprice rather than letting the order lapse - letting it lapse is precisely the failure this card is correcting, and it has now cost the book HKagainst Monday's 34.48 open. execution is written as 'market' (NOT 'market_on_open') so scripts/paper_executor.py can actually see it; the 08-14 card is marked superseded/withdrawn in this same ledger so only one order is ever live. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
13 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.