Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 31.34 | HOLD | 31.34 | 30.91 | 32.75 (+4.5%) | 36.03 (+15.0%) | 44.66 (+42.5%) | Holding Lenovo after this morning's profit-take, and adding nothing. The 30% trim decided at the 08-17 close filled at the open at HK, banking HK (+34.45%) - the book's first realized gain - and it beat tonight's close by HKa share, so the de-risk this weak session would have argued for is already done. The shares gave back 5.09% today to 31.34, closing in the bottom 10% of the range as the whole Hong Kong semiconductor complex round-tripped yesterday's rally (ten of twelve names down, two of them over 9%). Against that, the signal actually improved: conviction recovered, the label rotated back from NoTrade to FailedBreakdown_Up_20D, pillar consensus went Conflicted to Consolidation_Bullish and momentum turned back up. Valuation is neutral and offers no amplification either way (FAIR_VALUE, margin of safety -0.61, quality screen passed, DCF anchor HK), and the news is two-sided but unchanged: a record quarter with revenue up 43% year on year and AI revenue up 60%, against a 23.6x earnings multiple versus an 18.3x fair multiple after a 160% one-year run. The remaining are up 27.61% with the risk line at HK, which locks in 25.86% on the residual and puts HKof the peak gain either banked or stop-protected. OPERATIONAL: not armed tonight - Exit_Warning blank, Gain_ATR 2.89 below the 3.0 threshold, T12_Progress 70.17 below 90 - so the ADR-0012 profit-take path is closed and no fire tick is evaluable. No other sell-origination class fires either: no stop break (31.34 vs 30.91), 12wk positive at +42.5% so L2 fails both legs, ADR-0020 erosion 0% with the size just reduced, and the CLAUDE.md s9c valuation-elevate needs an Exit_Warning code plus MoS below -3 and has neither. Last night's pre-commitment (a second consecutive NO TRADE fires tick (d) alongside (b) = profit_take_2 = 50%) is RESOLVED UNFIRED - tonight printed HOLD cv67, not NO TRADE, so no escalation is taken. TRAIL HELD at 30.91, deliberately not ratcheted: the model printed Stop_Price 30.64, HKBELOW the recorded trail, and HS-3(a) forbids adopting a drifted-down model stop; separately the mechanical 2.13x chandelier off the unchanged 36.16 52-week high computes to 31.161 tonight purely because ATR compressed 2.4637 to 2.3469 - exactly today's low of 31.16 - so HS-24's new-high gate correctly blocked a stop that would have sat inside the current bar. Peak Stop unchanged 30.91, erosion 0%. Cushion is honestly tight: HK = 1.37% = 0.183 ATR, HKof exposure between close and trail. PRE-COMMITMENTS for the 08-19 close: (1) a decisive close below 30.91 is an unconditional FULL exit of the 30,000 residual under HS-3 - a bullish label and a positive 12wk are explicitly not a defence; (2) PROFIT_ARMED re-arms at a close >= 31.60 (24.56 + 3.0 x 2.346943), only +0.83% away, and re-arm plus any fire tick (a)-(d) is a mandatory profit_take_1 = 30% =; (3) two consecutive NO TRADE prints fire tick (d) per HS-4 - tonight's HOLD reset that counter to zero. NEXT RATCHET per HS-24: tighten only on a new 52-week high above 36.16, otherwise hold 30.91. ESTIMATES: 1wk 32.75 via f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.138 degenerate); 4wk 36.03 = Target_Price; 12wk 44.66 EXCEEDS the DCF anchor 43.495 by 1.17 - annotated not modified, fourth consecutive session - and note Systemic #1 tonight, Target_12Week on this name is pinned at exactly 1.425 x Close across five sessions, i.e. a clamp rail carrying zero forward information. Scan band 30.7132-39.8577. No ADD despite headroom restored to 40.49% of book vs the 60% cap: there is no ADD label and L1 discounts FailedBreakdown chases. Provenance clean - Entry_Price prints 31.34, identical to the close. HS-22 note: the scan ran 17:00:27 and the executor filled 17:00:31, so Avg_Cost 24.56 / Held 44000 in the CSV are pre-fill; Avg_Cost is unaffected by a partial sale so Gain_ATR is correct as printed. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
13 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.