Recommendations
0 to acquire · 1 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 30.12 | SELL ALL | 30.12 | 30.91⚠ | 31.47 (+4.5%) | 34.63 (+15.0%) | 42.92 (+42.5%) | Lenovo closed HK, a decisive 2.56% (0.35 ATR) below the HKtrailing stop this book recorded and pre-committed to eight days ago, and it traded as low as 29.60 (0.58 ATR through the line) during the session. The stop is the whole risk contract: we banked a 30% trim at 33.02 yesterday and set 30.91 as the level at which the rest comes off, so the rest comes off. Valuation is FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.63, DCF 45.64) - it neither originates nor amplifies this exit - and the sector news is confirming rather than overriding: Asian chip and AI-infrastructure names sold off broadly on financing-cost and China-competition fears, with book names red today. The exit still books a +22.6% gain on the residual and takes the book to 100% cash with HKrealized since inception. OPERATIONAL: HS-3 pure trailing-stop exit (a decisive close below a RECORDED trail is unconditional even with a bullish label and a positive 12wk - both are explicitly not a defence); this is the origination, not L2, whose second leg fails because the 12wk prints +42.5%. Fires pre-commitment (1) written into the 08-18 card verbatim. ADR-0012 is NOT the basis: Exit_Warning blank, Gain_ATR 2.47 < 3.0, T12_Progress 70.18 < 90 - not armed, so no profit-take tick is evaluable; pre-commitment (2) (re-arm at >=31.60) failed on the downside and pre-commitment (3) (2 consecutive NO TRADE) never started, tonight printing HOLD. ADR-0020 erosion 0% (live trail = peak stop 30.91). HS-3(a) applied: the model's Stop_Price drifted 30.64 -> 29.44, now 0.16 BELOW today's low - never adopted, the book's 30.91 stands and is what price violated. TENSION RECORDED: HS-7 (PROPOSED 2026-07-25, still pending after four weeks) would call a 0.35 ATR breach 'shallow' on a wide-ATR name with a bullish label and argue for a partial de-risk plus a reclaim re-arm instead of 100%; PROPOSED blocks are INERT and were NOT applied - the counterfactual grader will price this choice. Execution 'market' (not 'market_on_open', absent from paper_executor _EXEC_KINDS - the 08-14 lapse). L8: executes at the 2026-08-20 open; reprice if the open gaps >~1.5% from 30.12. Re-entry re-arm: a bullish-family actionable label with a settled close back above 30.91 AND a positive 12wk that is not the 1.425x clamp rail. · news |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
13 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.