Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 29.96 | WATCH — queued order lapsed | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Queued buy @30.82 lapsed — closed 29.96 below the level; awaiting reprice at the next end-of-day run. Lenovo has pulled back into its own volume-weighted average price after a strong run, without breaking anything that matters: the price still sits above every moving average from the 20-day out to the 200-day, momentum is mid-range rather than stretched, and the engine's highest-quality buy setup has re-fired at conviction 70 - the only ranked buy in the book. On value it screens as fairly priced with the best quality score of any name here and a discounted-cash-flow anchor of HK, comfortably above where the shares trade, so we are adding to a good business on a dip rather than chasing a breakout. A dated 27 Aug report on Lenovo expanding regional manufacturing is two-sided - defensive for supply chains, a cost headwind from chip inflation and tariffs - so it neither supports nor blocks the add. Operational: L1/HS-5 setup, buy-limit is marketable (close 29.96 is 2.8% BELOW the 30.82 limit, Entry_Distance_ATR +0.57, so it is the inverse of a chase). Sized at the model portion 39.22% x 10,000 = 3,922 rounded to the 2,000-share board lot =; size_mod 1.0x. Post-add, blended cost 30.884, 18.6% of book vs a 60% cap. Stop RAISED 28.80 -> 28.89 (monotonic, 0.71 ATR below close); Peak Stop re-bases to 28.89. CAVEAT: PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 0-for-2 in this book (n=2, report-only, bias 0 applied not haircut) against an L1 prior imported from the US book - adj conviction 67 clears the 65 floor by only two points, hence no discretionary upsize. 12wk 42.69 = 1.42490 x close = clamp rail, eleventh session, zero forward information. f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.138 degenerate). L8: reprice if Monday's open gaps outside HK-30.41; withdraw if conviction <65 or the bullish label is lost. · news |
| — | YOFC | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | Passing on YOFC for a third straight session. The optical-fibre maker's signal has decayed hard - the engine's conviction has fallen from to 33 in three sessions while the label slid from a strong buy to a mere watch - and on value it screens as deeply growth-priced-in with no reliable cash-flow anchor and a failed quality screen, so a new position is blocked outright. Its interim results are still unpublished against a 31 Aug exchange deadline, which is binary risk we are not paid to take at this conviction. Operational: adj 23 vs the 65 floor; Quality_Pass False is a hard gate on a new entry; no DCF_per_share at all so val_adj -10 rests on an unstable estimator (Systemic #5). COUNTERFACTUAL CORRECTION to the 08-26 entry: vs the 163.00 close we passed on, 6869 is now 170.30 = +4.5% (the pass has cost 4.5 pts on that basis, not the +0.31% previously logged); but vs the 170.35 chase-stop we would actually have paid, it is -0.03%, i.e. FLAT. The no-chase rule neither saved nor cost anything here - it avoided paying up for a setup whose conviction then fell 48 points. Both readings recorded. |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 66.20 | WATCH | 67.44 | 53.70 | n/a | 94.92 (+40.7%) | 65.78 (-2.5%) | Sunny Optical is the one name in this book that is both cheap on intrinsic value and passes the quality screen, and after four flat sessions it finally printed its first bullish signal - but it is a watch, not a buy. Three things block it, none of them valuation: the signal is only a watch-grade breakout rather than an actionable buy, the model's protective stop sits nearly 19% below the current price which is unusable risk for a swing entry, and the engine's own 12-week projection is BELOW today's close. Cheapness never originates a buy here. Operational: adj 47 vs the 65 floor; stop 53.70 is 3.58 ATR / -18.9% away; Target_12Week 65.78 < close 66.20. Price +5.75% in two sessions (62.60 -> 66.20) with interims reported 08-26 per the horizon, but NEITHER permitted news domain carried a dated result item - the move is unexplained by any citable source and is treated as unconfirmed. RE-ARM TRIGGER: a BUY/STRONG BUY label at conviction >=65 with a stop inside ~2 ATR. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
15 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.