Recommendations
0 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.36 | HOLD | 32.36 | 29.96 | n/a | 35.52 (+9.8%) | 46.11 (+42.5%) | We hold all 30,000 Lenovo shares and raise the trailing stop rather than take any profit. Friday's queued limit filled at the open at 31.82, roughly 1.8% below where a market order would have gone, and the position is now up 3.9% on a blended cost of 31.15. The signal cooled from a conviction-84 pullback buy back to a conviction-63 hold, but the price itself was flat on the day and the trend picture is intact - the shares sit above their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and 2.7% above the volume-weighted average price, with a 12-week projection of 46.11 implying about +43% from here. Valuation is neutral at fair value, so nothing argues for selling and nothing argues for adding at this level. Operational nuance: conviction fell 21 points, which is an ADR-0012 deterioration tick (b), but the position is NOT armed (Gain_ATR 0.76 vs the 3.0 arm; T12_Progress 70.18 vs 90), so there is no profit-take to fire - note it, do not trim. Gain_ATR recomputed by hand per HS-1: the scan ran 4 seconds before the Auto-Executor fill so its row still shows @ 30.39 and a stale Gain_ATR 1.24 (Systemic #2). Stop RAISED 29.71 -> 29.96 = 2.0x ATR chandelier off today's 33.12 high, monotonic up, 1.52 ATR below close, HKat risk. Model Stop_Price 31.76 REJECTED - 0.38 ATR below close and exactly today's low, i.e. already touched on the day it printed; the exit strategy flipped fixed_then_trail -> fixed_with_time_stop this session, which is the controlled comparison behind Systemic #1. ADR-0020 not fired (Peak Stop re-based up to 29.96, 0% erosion). L2 fails both legs. No news in window; the 09-03 Qira/AirJet items are two sessions out and carry no credit. Horizon: 09-08 economic band [-2,+2] med touches this name. · news |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 69.55 | HOLD | 69.55 | 67.02 | n/a | 74.98 (+7.8%) | 84.48 (+21.5%) | We hold all 3,800 Sunny Optical shares and raise the trailing stop again rather than trim into a catalyst. The position is 4.0% underwater, but a losing position is not by itself a sell case: the signal is still a constructive hold at conviction 60, the 69.55 close sits above our stop, and the 12-week projection of 84.48 is about +21% higher, so none of the three sell-origination classes fires. Valuation nudged from undervalued to fractionally rich, but at a margin of safety of -0.03 that is a hairline crossing of zero, nowhere near the level that could amplify a trim - and there is no trim to amplify. Apple's 09-10 product event is a direct optics read-through three sessions away, and the catalyst-aware rule says trail through the event, never pre-trim. Operational nuance: conviction (-7, short of the 20-pt tick); ADR-0012 NOT armed (Gain_ATR -1.07; T12_Progress 82.33 is the HS-2 target-exhaustion artefact on a loss, not a profit-lock). Stop RAISED 66.64 -> 67.02 = 2.0x ATR chandelier on the 72.45 entry with today's ATR 2.7126, monotonic up, HKat risk. CAVEAT: the buffer compressed to 0.93 ATR below close (from 1.33) because price fell into a rising stop, and the keynote's two-sided [-5,+5] band would print 66.07 on a -5% day - through the stop. That tension stands deliberately: hold through the event, but if the stop breaks decisively HS-3 fires unconditionally. Model Stop_Price 68.65 REJECTED for the FIFTH consecutive session at 0.33 ATR below close (Systemic #1). ADR-0020 not fired (Peak Stop re-based up to 67.02, 0% erosion). Scorecard cell FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy +4 is actionable but held report-only per learnings section C. No news in window. · news |
| — | AI - HK Semiconductors | — | NO ACTION | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | No trades today. Friday's queued Lenovo add filled at the open at 31.82 -, taking the position to 30,000 - so the book is now 54% invested with HK (46%) still in cash, and tonight there was simply nothing new to do. Not one of the twelve names printed a buy trigger: two holds, two watch-list names, five bearish avoids and three stuck on consensus conflict, so there was nothing to buy at any price. Nothing was sold either - neither holding broke its stop, carried a sell label, or qualified for a profit-take. Both trailing stops were raised instead. Lenovo is up 3.9% on its new blended cost and Sunny Optical is 4.0% underwater, leaving the book about HKahead on open positions. Operational nuance: buy pool empty, anticipate slot empty for a 4th session, no open orders remain after the fill so there is no zombie limit to reprice or withdraw. Loudest near-misses: 3750 CATL printed the book's highest bullish conviction (69) but only as WATCH, with a 12-week view 28% BELOW spot - the negative-12wk falling knife the B-note forbids; 6869 gapped +9.9% but sits 18 points under the 65 floor with MoS -12.38 and Quality_Pass False (hard gate); 0068 ripped +29.9% on a NO TRADE cv0 with a 09-08 lock-up expiry pending. 1347's valuation was revised UNDERVALUED +0.048 -> GROWTH_PRICED_IN -18.63 tonight, a third independent disqualifier that retroactively confirms both index-inclusion non-chases. Valuation was 10 days stale and was REGENERATED (FetchedAt 2026-09-07). Horizon refreshed same-day; the 09-10 Apple event [-5,+5] on 2382 is the book's biggest scheduled risk. Learnings ACTIVE block 51 days old with 7 PROPOSED blocks pending; Step 8a skipped per batch directive. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
18 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.097 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.