Recommendations
1 to acquire · 0 to dispose
| Ticker | Name | Close | Action | Action Price Where to act — a buy-limit on a pullback or a buy-stop above resistance, not the current price. Sanity-check vs Close: on a held name, an action price stranded above the close means the queued level was set when the stock was higher — stale, awaiting reprice. | Stop The risk-defined exit, set below the entry for a long (~1.2–1.8×ATR). A held long whose Stop sits at/above the Close is already below its stop — a stale box awaiting reprice. | 1wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 4wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | 12wk Model estimate of the likely price at this horizon — a forward projection, not a guarantee, and separate from the trade's Action Price or Stop. Where the ML estimator is enabled these are per-ticker calibrated forecasts (~80% coverage band) that are refreshed periodically and can drift between refreshes; otherwise they're interpolated from the signal's swing target. Confirm against the settled close. | Rationale |
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| 0992 | Lenovo Group Limited | 32.40 | ADD — QUEUED @31.82 | 31.82 | 29.71 | 33.05 (+3.9%) | 35.91 (+12.9%) | 46.17 (+45.1%) | Lenovo gave us the book's first genuine buy trigger in a week and we are queueing an add of rather than chasing it. The stock jumped 6.1% to 32.40 on very heavy volume and the signal upgraded to a PullbackBuy_VWAP STRONG BUY at conviction 84, the highest-quality entry label this book recognises and the top-ranked buy on the board. Valuation is neutral at FAIR_VALUE (MoS -0.62, a small -3 conviction debit) with quality passing, and the 12-week projection of 46.17 implies roughly +45% from our limit, so the reward case is intact even though the shares closed near the day's high. Because the close is already 0.35 ATR past the model entry we rest a good-till-cancelled limit at 31.82 and let the price come back to us instead of paying up. Operational nuance: L1 favours this cell and HS-5 makes the GTC pullback-limit the mechanism that enforces no-chase (counterfactual no_chase_queue n=8, median +23.19% at 4wk saved). Scorecard bias +0 -- PullbackBuy_VWAP|buy is 0/3 at both 1wk and 4wk in this book but n=3 is below the n>=5 floor, so it is reported, not applied. Size modulator 1.0x; 119.31% x 14,000 = 16,703 rounded down to the 2,000-share board lot. Caps clear: 1,568,830 covers the 509,120 cost 3.1x and post-fill 0992 is 41.7% of book vs the 60% max_position_pct. open_orders was empty, so this is a first order and not a reprice stacking on a live one (the 07-09/07-10 double-fill pathology cannot recur). Provenance: 31.82 is the live anchor row's own Entry_Price. Stop ADOPTED 29.68 -> 29.71, monotonic up and 1.64 ATR below close; chandelier alternatives compute lower (29.41 / 29.13) so the higher model stop stands. 1wk uses f=0.30 per L5 (calib_1w -0.138 degenerate). 12wk 46.17 sits just 1.2% above the 45.63 DCF anchor, so the long leg carries no valuation cushion. ADR-0012 not armed (Gain_ATR 1.23, T12_Progress 70.18); ADR-0020 not fired. News: none dated in window; the 09-02 Qira AI-assistant and Frore AirJet headlines are out of window and given no conviction credit. Executes at the next open per L8; reprice if it gaps >1.5%. · news |
| 2382 | Sunny Optical Technology | 70.50 | HOLD | 70.50 | 66.64 | n/a | 76.31 (+8.2%) | 85.96 (+21.9%) | We hold all of Sunny Optical and raise the trailing stop again rather than trim. The signal is a steady FailedBreakdown_Up_20D at conviction 67, the 70.50 close sits comfortably above our 66.19 stop, and the 12-week projection of 85.96 is about +22% higher, so no sell basis exists on any of the three origination classes. Valuation reads UNDERVALUED with quality passing, which on the sell side would argue for trimming the minimum -- but there is nothing to amplify because no signal originates a trim. The Apple keynote on 09-10 is a direct optics read-through just four sessions away, and the catalyst-aware hold says trail through the event rather than pre-trim. Operational nuance: conviction slipped only, far short of the 20-point ADR-0012 collapse tick, and the position is NOT armed (Gain_ATR -0.67, T12_Progress 82.01 < 90) -- the position is 2.69% underwater on its 72.45 cost, exactly the HS-2 configuration that must never be dressed up as a profit-take. STOP RAISED 66.19 -> 66.64: the same 2.0x ATR chandelier anchored on the 72.45 entry recomputed with today's ATR 2.903; monotonic up per HS-3a and 1.33 ATR below close. The model's Stop_Price 69.63 is REJECTED for the fourth consecutive session at only 0.30 ATR below close. ADR-0020 not fired (Peak Stop re-based up to 66.64 = live, 0% erosion). Scorecard bias +4 on FailedBreakdown_Up_20D|buy is actionable (n=8) but held report-only per learnings section C, and nothing actionable rides on it. A trim would require a confirmed lower high or a decisive stop break; neither exists. · news |
| PORTFOLIO | AI - HK Semiconductors | — | WATCH | — | — | n/a | n/a | n/a | One decision today: a queued add to Lenovo, funded entirely from cash, and no disposals. After a week in which not a single name in the universe printed a buy trigger, Lenovo flipped to a top-ranked PullbackBuy_VWAP at conviction 84 -- but it closed near the day's high, so we rest a limit below the market rather than chase it, and the book stays patient with the rest of its cash. Nothing was sold because neither holding produced a stop break, a sell label or a profit-take trigger. The decision not to chase 1347 Hua Hong into its Hang Seng Index inclusion was vindicated within one session: the stock fell 8.4% on inclusion day and its signal deteriorated to RallySell_BearTrend. Operational nuance: buy pool was a single name; anticipate slot empty (no BUY - ANTICIPATE print in any of the last 3 snapshots). Ten remaining names split into six bearish AVOIDs and four consensus-conflict NO TRADE cv0 prints; the three with any valuation appeal (0148 UNDERVALUED/Q_Pass True, 0522 and 6869) are either signal-dead at cv0 or blocked by the hard quality gate. : 509,120 needed against 1,568,830 = 3.1x covered, and the resting GTC consumes no cash today. Book HK; cash 68.5% now, 46.3% if the limit fills. Both stops moved up (0992 29.68 -> 29.71 adopted, 2382 66.19 -> 66.64 chandelier); ADR-0020 Trail Erosion not fired on either. Valuation CSV is exactly 7 days old -- fresh by the rule tonight, stale on the next run. |
Outcome & track record
Accuracy at the time of this record.
18 Graded decisions Past recommendations old enough to score against what actually happened (target hit / stopped out / closed). This is the evidence base — the bigger the number, the more history behind the calls. Click to inspect every one. See the decisions →
-0.138 1-week calibration How much of the eventual 4-week move typically shows up in the first week (0 = almost none, 1 = most of it). Use it to read the 1-week estimates: a low number means prices drift toward the target slowly, so don't over-read a soft week-1.
49 Published records How many dated end-of-day verdicts exist for this book — the length of the public track record you can browse in the Archive below.